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786Trader last won the day on August 19

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  1. Great post... Inflation is less transient than central bankers hope. The current result is transient (they hope) stagflation. Reflationary trends are more likely than not, though the general market correction that is being deferred once more, is likely over due come Q1 22....more likely before. As for your clever strategy, respect. As a simple Oil and gas trader I judge different metrics (like actual physical supply, storage and expected and real demand) for example. Plus order flow is useful. Have a great day trading all. Finally getting round to booking some holiday time that's not in the UK...which is a good sign..
  2. So it is, when we look to the rising of the sun and the great emergent market of the East, we cannot help notice the ever increasing influence of the party in all elements of life, be it business or pleasure. It's one big party and aren't they having a good time? Naturally, it's for the benefit of the party, sorry, people. One notes the legislation in finance, where the Zhejiang Tourism Investment group will have the good fortune to be partners in the new joint venture, born from the break up of Ant finance and it's jewel Alipay. Giving the party more access to every facet of peoples lives , including your credit score and real time financial records. They (the people and party) must be most grateful. As must be all the tech companies for the continued rigorous oversite. The same might not be said for Evergrande, or Soho who are facing rather less envious futures as their creditors circle and bankruptcy looms large and inevitable. The state may let them fail to a point, then bail them out, as contagion is a distinct possibility, admonish the greedy speculators and distribute the remaining assets to loyal apparatchiks. The similar statements regarding consolidation in the EV market may equally send chills down the spines of the executives of Nio, Xpeng and BYD. Expect approved mergers in the near future perhaps? Some of this intervention is welcome for consumer protection, some is more overt market control for other, less palatable reasons. Meanwhile, around the world a sense of introverted navel examination prevails. The US no longer looking outward but in and having what could be termed as an identity crisis. I wont mention the UK as we are still getting over 2016 and have crisis enough keeping milk on supermarket shelves. The world seems a disjointed and disconnected place despite the wealth of technological innovation, our worlds become smaller and our outlooks more limited. So much so, we almost discount the continued appreciation of the price of everything, as it, like life is merely transient. We fail to notice, perhaps the continued equity bubble that balloons without correction, heading it seems to the moon. The mElon apostles continue to pray at the alter of Tesla despite it's lack of real profits (they prefer prophet to profits). We ignore CV19 and just take it for granted, even if it has a propensity to vary and mutate past the vaccine wall. We continue to invite Facebook and social media into every aspect of our lives. So it maybe our horizons shrink and with it our perspectives. Lets hope not our awareness too. Don't forget to hedge where appropriate and take profit. Have been doing a good deal of meditation on the subjects of inflation, commodities, crypto and equity. Markets and people don't like change. But like evolution it's a case of adapt or become a fossil. There upon to eventually become fossil fuel...(sorry had to get an oil joke in there somewhere)
  3. It would appear the vaccines are not quite what they were touted to be...according to Isrealnationalnews.com, "among seriously ill patients 35% are not vaccinated, 61% are an 3% have received one dose of the Pfizer vaccine. The number of seriously ill patients declined Wednesday to 139 from 140 a day earlier, while the number of fully vaccinated patients in serious condition inched upwards from 240 to 243. The number of partially vaccinated patients held steady at 10". Pfizer not that effective then against Delta variant....
  4. WTI and gasoline have been heavily correcting this month. Since 31/07 til now, WTI crude has lost 16%, gasoline 15%, heading toward a possible 19-20% retracement. It has dropped past the 200 day MA and the RSI is less than 28. All this on falling inventories of crude. Demand has reduced slightly, but not as significantly as the price betrays. So why the large fall? Seasonal shift in blends is a part reflection in the price of gasoline, shifts in confidence in all markets regards efficacy of vaccines in front of exposure to new Delta variant and its effect on future demand, also a factor, big players (China and India) drawing down reserves instead of restocking at higher prices, also a factor. Or is it simply the market correcting itself ahead of the change in season and in tandem with equities? Are hedge funds becoming reticent regards future growth? Is the patched balloon that is the equity market sinking? Has Jerome's talk of taper given markets the willies? Oil stocks are reducing, not expanding, demand is remaining steady as movement metrics return to previous norms. Cushing's levels are comparatively low. Shale producers are back to April 2020 levels of production. Opec + is holding supply steady. Oil is in a new bull market since bottoming out April 2020 and this would be the second significant correction subsequent to those lows. As the worlds economies trend towards eventual, belated carbon neutrality, the addiction to the black stuff is hard to quell. Big oil, seeing this as a protracted last hurrah, is certain to try to extract as much value as possible until that end is reached and we only use oil for important stuff like advanced plastics and the price of oil is $500 a barrel. Which is what it should be, as it's a truly remarkable commodity and shouldn't be utilised for mundane uses, such as burning it for locomotion or single use plastic packaging. Which is pretty dumb, when one thinks about it. I digress, My position is; Oil is falling, it will rise again. Not financial advice. Happy, profitable trading all..
  5. Suspect corrections when they come will be in the order of 10-20%. We may have 2 such corrections by the end of the year. Suspect one is due around now. Chart action suggests overbought for equity and commodities are correcting as I write. Recovery is also highly likely. Re Oil, correction will not be long lasting. May I suggest the price of energy will remain high for the foreseeable future (return of $100-125 barrell ?). As will the spectre of inflation, as contrary to the esteemed Jerome P, I maintain inflation is more than "transitory", more a feature of the next few years. Pretty optimistic predictions for S&P 500 there, as there is an inevitability of a significant correction of more than 34-55% by 2025-26. However, am prepared to work with a guide that suggests equity will relentlessly rise for the next Gann cycle.
  6. Folk will continue to believe what they want to believe. A nice, friendly, wholesome narrative is preferable to one which questions whether the whole thing has been a major error of judgement. Emperor and new clothes scenario. Yes my wife is not the only one having trouble with AZ, thousands of others are (check out twitter and FB (though FB groups regarding vaccine and side effects are being shut down regularly, as freedom of speech is great as long as it's not controversial or contradictory to the prevailing govt narrative). However, we are being labelled conspiracy theorists for questioning the validity of the presented evidence re AZ and even Covid. Which is news to us. We are just a normal family doing our best to get by. Noone wants to hear any "bad" news, even if it has merit. So by extension, being rational has translated into being irrational. Many folk are sleepwalking hoping this dream will end, not seeing the wood for the trees, instead of being awake (not woke, but awake) and affecting change through observation and exchange of information. But observation is a rare commodity and fear discourages free exchange of information. It's all "meh meh meh" .....and they want to give the vaccine to kids ...have they no shame?
  7. Have to say Casey, your contributions on the on going Covid story (monumental ballsup) have been a tonic. Was sceptical for sometime but am more sympathetic to your premise regarding the pandemic and the reaction to it. Vaccines are such good PR, it is a shame that the general population are being used as guinea pigs for DNA altering drugs with as yet unknown and potentially damaging long-term consequences and side effects. Doubly bazarre,the governments of the planet are prepared to take the risk in the name of exigency. AZ is particularly dirty and incomplete, if not down right dangerous as to be considered a lethal weapon to some of the unfortunates unlucky enough to experience the more unpleasant side effects of being injected with it. Such is political expediency and exigency at the altar of public health. Forgive the unPC comments, but they are borne from experience, as my wife has had long-term reactions to the "cure". Most folk don't want to hear anything but the popular narrative, even if it vere's heartily away from some inconvenient truths. So thank you Casey keep up the good work, it's appreciated.
  8. Don't think the bull run has ended, just a correction is very much on the cards. Timing of which suggests we have some room to manoeuvre but would not be surprised at all if the market tops out within the next couple of weeks, or anytime around 21/06....Suggest it is more a profit taking exercise than genuine full scale correction, which could/should be later in the year. Only mentioned this as markets have been red hot for months and swimming in liquidity, sooner or later some of that will be taken out in the form of profit taking. Suggest it may be a 10% er or even more. In the past have purchased ETFs that short the market and like to buy the Vix at less than 20, as it's a fair form of insurance (Imho). Psychologically, the oil markets have a problem with WTI being over the $75, which at current rates of progress is due to top out sooner than later. Just mentioning it.
  9. Regards price points... am long on Brent with a target at $77.86 (suspect higher) once this is in, will look to cover positions on Oil and gasoline and look to take some insurance now with Vix@20 Gold and QQQ shorts as strongly suspect short term reversals will be due to unfold anytime subsequent or even before.
  10. Trading gasoline and oil has been pretty epic this year, so far. The happy nexus (for Bulls) of constrained supply and increased demand have conspired to push prices ever higher, popping targets and passing milestones on the way. There have been some pull backs , but most of those were due to some healthy profit taking, others due to ill winds blowing a supertanker off course and blocking the Suez for a week or other such unforeseen, but welcome (for bulls) circumstances. However, as most of us with experience know that this too shall pass and inevitable corrections are due to manifest whether it is our want or not. It's a cyclic phenomena. Thing is, to be prepared for such eventualities one must start hedging one's positions accordingly. Or even reverse them entirely. One may suggest that a change in the wind or sea is due. Not in a "it's all going to fall, sell it all " kind of way, but more ;"it's been hot and sunny too long and we really need some rain". All I am suggesting is, it might be time to invest in a brolly and some Wellington boots, if one is trading Oil or Gasoline, or commodities in general. What rationale sets me on this course of action? Apart from bigger-than-it-should-be gut instinct, supply and technical chart action suggests a top is near or near abouts. Not to mention many traders have already blown their targets out of the water and could do with a holiday. Sell high, come back and buy at a decent discount and presto, lets dance again sort of correction. I could easily be mistaken and am still overall bullish on Oil and Gasoline, but sense a decent ($7-$10) correction is due by months end or thereabouts. Maybe the eclipse has set me off on a fools errand? However, I have always come to rue not listening to my gut and can scent the winds of change, so am planning on changing strategy in the meantime, moderating and shifting positions accordingly. Maybe it's soon time to buy some Gold or Silver ETFs or buy some QQQ shorts or just pick up the Vix at 20, for example and trade out when the targets have popped. Don't get me wrong, this is not an end is nigh kind of feeling, more a "we've maybe only got a few more weeks of this, before the clouds break" sort of feeling. After the rains there is a sense of renewal and I wouldn't be surprised if the Rodeo starts out all over again with the same associated vim and gusto, with just a few folk who were slow or arrogant or plain vanilla flavoured dumb,or leveraged to the max, wiped out by the sudden change in the proverbial commodity trading weather. Either way I wish all traders on the forum good fortune and timing and good health.
  11. Technicals were all at their peak. Moving averages were due to cross and did. Trigger point. Normal retracement suggested 8-13% down trend, especially after such a sustained Bull run. Hedge Funds took their profits and freed up some cash while remaining Bullish in overall outlook. Been on holiday from trading subsequent to retracement, as was knackered and had had a good couple of months, so figured it was better to chill out than burn out. Back on it now though and took some time to investigate likely algorithms for future trading strategies.
  12. As a creature of habit one tends to stick with the familiar, the usual, the normal and view with scepticism anything that doesn't fit within well known parameters. That includes, in my case, trading. However, times change and tempus fugit and we are too young to be so old, as to not at least examine and understand the new. I am not only talking about algorithmic trading but of decentralised finance, web 3.0 and the ramifications for global finance. And it's happening now. It is foolish to ignore or reject out of hand for reasons of being new and wildly unstable, as it is no longer new and is rapidly becoming a feature of doing business and trading now. Decentralised finance and crypto currently trades around $2-3 trillion dollars a day. This is growing. I am a dinosaur dealing mostly in Oil and gasoline, but even I have to pay attention to a cpuple of trillion bucks and counting. It seems web 3.0 is everything that web 1.0 wanted to be. Web 1.0 morphed into web 2.0 slowly after the dot com bubble burst in 2000-2001, as a consequence of data monetisation, which the FANGs profit from mightily. Sceptics at the time (2001) thought then the web was dead and they could happily return to the old analogue world. Not so. Web 3.0 promises to end said hegemony of the Fangs, not to mention banking hegemony, central banking, fiat currency, in fact anything where data is aggregated, connected and used, including the management of connected machines and associated AI systems. In short, a revolution. I would have been perfectly happy to ignore it. When Facebook wanted to create their own crypto currency, the Libra, you can see they understood the opportunity and long term threat to their very existence and the promise of crypto. Zuckerberg must be peeved with the anti-trust boys and girls on that one (No you can't print your own money Mark). With the new generation Web 3.0 control of ones data reverts to the individual or company. The system is transparent and decentralised. Meaning companies will have to pay you for trading or using it (your data). A paradigm shift. The same can be said for banking and legacy banks may well be having quiet panic attacks on regular basis when considering their future, especially when they look at comparable Fintecs (Celsius for example). Let's not even mention mostly bankrupt or wholly unsustainably indebted fiat currencies and the role of central banks in a De-Fi new world. No wonder Jerome is keeping quiet and adopting a wait, we are real busy right now and we shall see, attitude to crypto. Not to mention trying to shut down XRP (it wont work, classifying it as a security not a currency might). The ramifications are terrifying and limitless. But so are the possibilities. As I mention it would be easy to ignore or discount were it not becoming the elephant in the room. As an oil trader I am insulated from this more than most, save the algo traders who are quicker and more efficient and without any trace of emotion. But I am not losing sleep yet. I mention this because sure as we knew the internet was going to change our lives, but didn't exactly know how, Web 3.0 will absolutely and radically change our lives and we must embrace it, as like it or not, it is a growing part of our future. Bitcoin may be a bubble yet to burst ( weekend flash crash, for example) but crypto, blockchain and DeFi are most certainly, here to stay. Hope everyone has a good week and profitable trading to all!
  13. Really enjoying your missives re market timing. Thank you for your continued diligence. Interesting and informative. Left field too, which is satisfying. Your understanding of the methods of WD Gann are profound, though suspect WDG adopted said methods rather than originally authored them. Btw, suspect Oil market will retrace from Monday/Tuesday, till 23rd March(ish) then resume it's bullish trend. Have a great weekend and look forward to your next update.
  14. Life can be viewed as a series of random events to be survived. Others may prefer to see patterns within the random. Others again see patterns repeating and the random chaos being slightly more organised than previously envisaged. Other fatalists see it all as the omnipotent ones' great plan and who are we to question? Which is great if one passively accepts the seemingly inevitable, not so great if one sees the chance to change and actively seeks to affect change. As the planet spins and we experience constant change in motion. Commodities have boomed, on a Bull run last witnessed during the Crash of 2008/9. Commodities, especially those related to energy are drivers of interest rates and inflation. We are currently in a super low interest rate environment. It is expected that these super low rates will continue on indefinitely. I question those expectations. Those poor folk freezing their cabooses off in Texas must also be beginning to question these expectations. Why would freezing Texans question anything except how do I heat my house/food/water at the moment? For Texas is symptomatic of the very question of energy use, rising prices that effect rate of inflation and rate of inflation which influences the rates of interest. Texas consummately failed to expect the unexpected (bad weather) and the energy grid (designed for maximum economic efficiency) comprehensively seized up and failed when it snowed. The price of power went through the freezing roof. Those with power banks and their own generators carried on as usual. Texas uses Gas, Wind and Solar to power the grid. The wind is free, though generators are not, the sun is free, though panels and rare earths are not, natural gas is free as it is under the ground, though extracting it is not. The price of Natural Gas (being a finite resource) is 33% higher than Feb 2020. No inflation there then. Oil has recovered all of its losses from 2020 and is on a serious tear. The technicals suggest there is ample room for more upside. Opec+ appear to have learned the error in their ways and are acting in a more concerted manner to achieve price certainty and seem in no mood to drive the price down for market share. Better a higher price for less oil. It's finite after all. Rumours the Oil business is dead are grossly exaggerated. Back to the original point, commodities are booming, Oil especially. There is a direct translation to inflation. Which inevitably has a direct effect on interest rates. Which effect equities.... The price of Oil could go to $100 again. Higher even. I expect to see the price of WTI to exceed $72 this year. $75 for Brent. I also expect a correction of 3-4% soon, but with a rebound. I haven't even mentioned Copper, Iron, rare earth or even and especially Food, feedstock and grains.... Deflationary environment? For how long exactly? Continuing with low interest rates when inflation is rising surely only enhances a K shaped recovery, those on the up who have, will be fine. Zero interest rates are great if you have borrowed to the moon (like most Governments and Federal banks), folk with massive mortgages, businesses with vast leverage... but if you haven't? Sooner or later there will be a reckoning between the reality of surging commodity, food and feedstock prices and the expectation of low/negative interest rates.
  15. A correction is due. 11 months pretty much straight bull run, barring one pullback in October that lasted less than a week. Agree, if not now then certainly by the end of June. Possibly a pullback by March, followed by another race to the moon before sanity/common sense/ global shock takes precedent and we all realise just how expensive most everything is. In the meantime, it's just one really stonking party! Until it's not.
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