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786Trader

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786Trader last won the day on May 10

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  1. 😁Quite correct a compromise should be the order of the day. Whether and when are closer to market concerns. President Trump tends to see these sort of negotiations as win/lose,rather than give and take (based on previous evidence and behaviour). My point being he doesn't accommodate compromise gladly and his advisers have an uphill struggle selling him the concept that compromise is a win. He is pragmatic when pushed, though and that could be his saving grace. President Xi is more inscrutable and opaque as is common in the East, though sports a healthy pragmatic streak himself, so face saving compromise may well win out. But not necessarily. Media circus is also valid, though that is how we receive most of our information and is filtered accordingly. "Sudden Death raised a smile.🙂 Have a good weekend.
  2. @TrendFollower US debt to China is $1.1 trillion. China hold $2.1 trillion in US govt bonds and treasuries. However, total US debt is aprox $22 trillion= all the assets held by all US pensions and investments. China, newer on the scene to creating debt has been making a fair go at creating debt mountains themselves, currently $34 trillion and counting, so need an ever expanding economy to cover their costs. Ergo China needs an export surplus and higher value exports at that. For the US and China it is a case of both of them wanting their cake and eating it. How does the hand get played out? That's the trillion dollar question. Xi has the advantage of time. Trump the advantage of financial clout (he's their biggest customer). However, the poker analogy is not really fair as the results are not binary, more quantum than binary. There are no big winners from an escalation of the current situation and the downsides are far from desirable. If this were to become a matter of attrition, Xi would win as Trump would run out of time and fail to be re-elected on the back of poor economic performance. Though Xi himself would hardly be sitting comfortably on his golden throne in Beijing either for the same reason. Who will blink first?
  3. As the trade war of words and tariffs rumbles on ominously, what was initially a match between President Trump and President Xi has embroiled the worlds markets in a game they did not need or want to play. Flirting with unnecessary turmoil and genuine recession was obviously a possibility when Mr Trump initiated this fight, thinking perhaps no one would dare call his play, but Xi also has an ego and is the head of a totalitarian, nominally communist state of 1.4 billion souls and not subject to the checks and balances of elections every four years. Making him an equally formidable adversary. When Dragons and Tigers fight a draw is the best outcome. Personally, I agree that the current trade agreements with China need adjustment. China is now the second largest world economy, no longer an economic novice and needs to accept that it has changed. With that change come responsibility. However, in order to facilitate change in the East one needs to understand the mindset. Unfortunately, Trump is subtle as a sledgehammer, somewhat devoid of the notion of tact or what the Asians call Face. Telling people what to do, then threatening them is not model diplomacy, not exactly art of the deal. As a consequence we are where we are, looking at a potentially turbulent June. Volatility is a traders friend so its going to get mighty friendly, with the only certainty being the price of oil. Which is another story, though esteemed President Trump has had significant input regards the price of oil too. Stormy weather ahead. Great for traders with Iron constitutions. The problem with high stakes poker is the stakes can quickly get too high.
  4. Ironic, perhaps that this time the market shakes and falls (equities and commodities) that the new trend for growth is more bizarre and abstract: Crypto. Something that exists only in the ether (pardon the pun), is not tangible or even easy to spend and only exists in code in the cloud. So as the markets wobble and bend in the world of men, the best investment right now is one that is not real. How does that make sense? I must be old fashioned, believing money represents time and energy exchange for the real, and such energy should not be stored but needs to keep moving, the physical manifestation being cold hard cash, exchanged for commodities, goods or services. But I am still having difficulty with concept Crypto, barring it being a wheeze to generate instant virtual currency as substitute for the physical paper stuff, just much more of it, without the backing of ,say ,Gold. Am I making sense? I find myself trading on something that exists essentially only in the abstract, yet has value because we put a price on it, but the it of itself only lives in the virtual. I was wandering if this is more symptomatic of the general madness that seems to be afflicting our planet and minds here in 21st century or if it's just me.
  5. Both. Depending. Have gone long and short on oil, gasoline, FX and especially Wall street ( most every time it reaches a new high). Have had less fortune with Lumber which seems to react in it's own sweet way, which I blame on the Chicago weather. Generally am looking for a swing. Then take the money and run. Have found stop losses set too conservatively are triggered easily when volatility is there. So approx 20% + or -, is the stop, which seems huge but has worked for me so far. Go to go as have duties that need attending to...
  6. Decided to try this Spreads and CFD's as an experiment, experience and alternative to the sweet 1.5% on offer with ISA's. I had a strategy, still adjusting. I have a plan. But having no experience is a bit of a handicap. I detached myself from the money so it was no longer personal. I have had enormous fun and learned more about the global economy in 4 months and 10 days than the 25 years I have been reading the economist, running a small property business or talking with my very cautious banking friends (all of whom advised me not to spread or trade CFD's ). Opened a demo account and a real one. Despite being clobbered in the lumber markets ( attracted to the volatility) oil, gasoline and tracking the Dow have more than bailed me out. Have I won every week? Not on your Nelly! Did I take it personally when trades did not work out due to impatience, greed or poor timing? To begin with yes. Patience and belief have become my friends, even if the belief has come down to **** minded instinct on occasion. Result? A profit of 38% in real money and 25% including margin or 37.5% without in demo after 4 months. Too much information is worse than not enough so have taken what makes sense. Have traded out of all my positions when Wall street hit 26671, with the exception of Calls on Wall street June 19 (26500), call on Footsie @6725 May and a call on June USD/GBP @1.3100. Still long on oil, though have regularly taken profits. Am still learning about calls and puts so will ride them out or cancel at close. If one is to enter this with intention of it being one's sole income, then you will need at least £50k as your base and not be upset if you lose it all. Do not be obsessive about it either, remember to enjoy life. Don't take losses personally, see them as part of the process. That's about all I can think to say on the subject for now. Save I am enjoying this far more than I imagined I would, but maybe that's because I am in profit.
  7. It is not often I agree with the President, but he has a point where China is concerned. Experience tells that in China a deal today is today's deal. Tomorrows deal can be different. The dragon thinks only of itself. I may suggest that only the USA raising Tariffs may not be enough and it may require concerted effort from the West plus Japan, to convince China to change its ways. However, the President has a way of isolating America that previous presidents did not. Also, not many countries are brave enough to tell Mr Xi to go take a big tariff. These tariffs, if implemented for the medium or long term will certainly create inflationary pressure. In turn raising rates and affecting growth both domestic and global. A war no one wins, neither farmers, workers, traders or bankers. Should this stretch to 2020 then reaping what one sows will be the order of the day both for USA and China, not to mention the rest of the world (recession). China needs to accept it is no longer an economically developing nation and accept its new responsibilities and America needs to understand that no one likes being told to change their laws to suit American business. Deals are based on trust, compromise and mutual gain. That's just good business. Or used to be.
  8. High stakes poker. Neither China, nor USA could afford a protracted trade war which would lead to short term and medium term negative market sentiment. USA and China are nursing considerable debt, which would only increase in the advent of tariff wars. A war of attrition also benefits no one in the long term. Not to mention halting and reversing market gains and sentiment. Compound this with the politics of big oil, the significance of successful and fair outcome to the current negotiations is doubly important, both for the present recovery and future well-being of the global economy. You are correct I feel, in suggesting Trump thinks and acts for the Now and XI has the luxury of time. Interesting times.
  9. Still a significant rebound! Real significant. Almost reactive. Still rocking up, suspect overly so. Enjoy your evening. Am off to annoy the wife 😶
  10. It's not often a market swings like Lumber has over the last 5 days. Certainly not slumber in Lumber, more WTF are you joking??? OK so 3.3% increase in spending on DIY and construction materials equates to price rises 3+% in a day of frenzy! But this has been more a very long weekend of frenzy and Lumber lunacy. Naturally one of my accounts has been caught in it (wrong side) and is looking at demolishing over a months worth of profits. All very sobering. My bias has been that Lumber should stay reasonably priced during a general slowdown, or economic pause. $38000 aprox for the price point. Just goes to prove that anything can happen. Plus a buying frenzy is something to behold. Expect others managed to profit. Well done and have a beer on me.
  11. Thanks Casey. Still trying to balance, or is that juggle opposing opinions and data streams. Really appreciate the info, some reinforces and other casts doubt.......... Good luck to you, ()tempered with good judgement).
  12. My my what is going on with Lumber? + $2500 + since Friday morning. A near 5% positive swing. The why naturally is not so obvious. Are people building more? Not according to the latest numbers. Are more papers being printed? Nope. Was Lumber that under valued? Errr nope, but obviously yes??!!. I am used to Oil being volatile but wood? These are crazy loopy swings and someone is working it well. Also presents a selling op. As rises like this are unnatural, it's bonkers with blueberry cream on top! Anyone else noticed this?
  13. Thanks for the info Casey. As usual differing arguments. Oil was battered on Friday, but is recovering. Demand outlook may be downgraded, but not by much. Also oil is still at fair price. Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Saudi on steriods plus the ever calm Russians and Trump, are rarely anything but volatile. Oil is political. Price will rise some more. that's the position according to my reckoning.
  14. Have been quietly going long on oil and have loved the volatility. However, WTI has paused for a breather since Monday and has gone off sideways. This has surprised me a little as Brent has not followed quite the same path. OK so stocks of WTI are larger than expected, but Heating, Diesel and Gasoline are not and the net imports are still 1.6 million or so. Point being there is still significant demand, but not for WTI. All this has caused a bit of head scratching and further research. So maybe it's just speculation combined with politics. Either way a reversal was due, but for how long? Markets are otherwise in pretty good shape and seemingly Bullish. We shall see. Am holding on to a long position for now as I took profits on Monday.
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