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786Trader

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786Trader last won the day on May 10 2019

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  1. Provided they don't completely hash it up, Brexit means Sterling will appreciate. Probably. The caveat being if it is not a hard Brexit with it's concomitant tariffs and hazards. A hard Brexit (which is bad for almost everyone) would lead Sterling to devalue some more, sub $1.20 and Euro1.05. If not lower. With a decent deal that is positive for all parties then Sterling may rise to $1.50+ and Euro 1.30+ . That's my position. However, our politicians and political advisors are best it seems at serving themselves and not so interested in serving the greater good (one rule for them,one rule for us, like Demonic Cummings for example). Therefore, what is obviously a good thing (a good deal) may easily be compromised by our political elite (again) as opposed compromising for the benefit of the majority. If one were to compare our economic state with other nations and blocs then Sterling is as knackered as any of the competition. Will only be more knackered if we make a bad deal (no deal) the world knows it and will pan our currency with prejudice if we fail to do so. (Make money while seeing your competitor fail) Double bonus if you are not British. The negotiations are of paramount importance and must not be pucked up.
  2. Why would I purchase an equity knowing the dividend will be low or non existent in the expectation of fair value in 6 to 12 months time, but pay the expected price now? Confused? It would appear P/E ratios no longer apply in this new normal freakfest that are current global indices, most especially the S&P 500 and DOW, which are frankly so removed from current reality as to be in need of professional therapy. It is voluntary myopia, a refusal to see what is in front of you and only accept what you want to be, and that becomes your reality. In the sixties people with long hair used to take hallucinogenics for that sort of effect, now one just has to trade in equities. It would appear there absolutely is no global health crisis, which will vanish sooner than it appeared and everything is much the same as last year and all the bad news is already priced in.........?????!!!? What with the Fed buying junk(Ok, BB) bonds by the billion I suppose we can all pretend, even if we are nowhere nearer finding an end to this than we were in Feb. Remdesivir is not a cure, it merely encourages recovery for those who would recover anyway, chloroquine has disappeared off the radar of great white hopes and we are still Quarters away from a proven effective vaccine. True the world is wearily returning to work, but those who think Q3/4 will be a return to normal have comprehensively failed to understand the nature of this Virus and its economic effects. Take a walk around your local town and see for yourself. For the markets to assume there will be no second wave is also risk indeed (naturally only with clients money). The bond markets, it seems are more cautious and expect a slower return to normalcy. Equity traders , it would appear do not. To return to the first point, why buy a stock, some already close to all time highs, in the expectation of price increase in the indeterminate future when earnings will be commensurately lower? Sounds like Bull logic morphing into BS logic. It would be Kafka-esque, but as it's 2020, it is more Trump-esque. Happy trading.
  3. It would appear the Market needs no fundamentals, almost churlish and passe to suggest they are of any significance which is pretty dumb and crazy really.
  4. Point being, company valuations are based on P/E, which have become less and less reliant on the E for earnings. It is as if the "E" is being viewed with binoculars rather than a microscope.
  5. As an addendum, one only has to look to China and see their reality on the ground. China is currently back to "normal", it is on a 3 day week (split shifts to avoid any rush hour), shops are open but sales are down considerably, bars are open but empty, flights are still grounded and the state and people are still very nervous of a second wave of infections coming from without. Savings are down and spending is more parsimonious as folk suit their budget to new incomes. In short not the "V" shaped recovery many expect or predict. Naturally, it will be different in the West, won't it?
  6. S&P500 is now at levels last seen October 2019....a mere 6 months ago. When things were apparently very much like now. Totally similar, in fact. Save 26 million more unemployed, govt debt that has gone into the stratosphere, whole market sectors on their knees with no sign of rapid recovery and a highly contagious, potentially deadly virus that still infects the planet. Apart from that, everything is the same and the S&P practically mirrors the economic reality and is definitely not an over exaggeration or bubble, plus the virus has gone and will not come back until after the election when it will be proven, beyond any reasonable doubt, to be some else's fault. So is it really just like last October? Are we due another melt up of equity and commodity values? Or are equities already over valued as things stand? Has unlimited QE simply funneled vast amounts of tax payer cash into the hands of those who know best how to profit from such federal and government largesse at the expense of the real? If the S&P were to be believed everything is just like October 2019. This is not the case surely? Is this another bubble ready to pop? Looks like it. Beware of ever increasing values of equities, they no longer reflect the reality of life lived by the majority, there is an imbalance. As usual, the markets are overcompensating. The mechanisms being used to fix current problems are only building greater ones down the road, at the expense of the taxpayer, naturally. The distribution between those that have and those that don't have enough will only widen, causing real future problems, not to mention ethical contradictions and matters of jurisprudence. It is all too surreal and surely not at all like last October, no matter what the S&P infers. (That he garden is rosy once more).
  7. Interesting the identity of the "epidemiologist" is missing. It's like saying a "doctor" thinks..... It is fact free supposition. Unfortunately. Agree the lockdown is no fun and detrimental to the economy. Healthy people get Covid and die as surely as vulnerable people, though not as many. Yes, many of us may have had it but as there is a paucity of testing both for antibodies and the virus how will anyone know? Unfortunately, I suggest the piece you have sent is in fact, fake news. Sorry.
  8. Many equities and indices ( eg. the S&P500) are around the same level as the Dec 2018 dip, which is surprising. Then there was no world health emergency, no 26 million Americans on welfare, no global lock down. The markets seem to think it an irrelevance, such trifles are merely temporary rocks in the road, it would appear. They suggest hits to earnings are already priced in and dividends and bonus bonanzas are just around the corner in Q3, early 2021 latest. It would appear these analysts don't get out much. That's lock down for you. "The rebound will be a V"......I may suggest the beta blockers are working, as social distancing will be around into 2021 and a "U" shaped recovery or even a double dip as equally, if not more likely. Naturally, no one mentions the invisible elephant in the room....the second wave. Most of us would have researched the "Spanish" flu epidemic of 1919, or at least conversed with some that have. The virus then came in 3 waves between 1919 and 1920/21. The second wave being the worst. It would appear the markets think there will be no second wave because the curve has been flattened. That is a mighty assumption indeed. So it's all alright and the only way is up......the curve has been flattened let's get back to normal as quickly as possible......yes, in our dreams. If I may suggest, the reality of Covid may be different to market hopes and expectations. There still is no cure, there is no herd immunity (as happened in 1919-1920), social distancing and cleanliness are the only weapons. And ventilators. So far. That is the reality on the ground, where normal people live. It is irrational exuberance and optimism to think that because the curve has flattened, the crisis is over. It is not. I share the markets view that this crisis will pass, but disagree with the timeline. As an aside, I would strongly suggest to all concerned they refrain in total from taking any of president Trump's advice regarding health, safety and Covid... do not inject or ingest bleach, do not lay on the sunbed for hours at a time, don't waste your money on chloroquine (unless you have malaria). He is a showman, not a doctor and he really wants to be reelected whatever the cost. Social distance, keep your hands clean and stay safe.
  9. Once more we find ourselves in accord, in principle. This melt up is being sponsored in America through the Fed and Mnuchkin at Trump's urgent request (election nearing perhaps?). Instead of sponsoring those that need it, they sponsor those that don't. I am not a slave though so refute that.
  10. Some in the markets (indices) think, it would appear, that Corona is all over bar the counting and the markets will soon get back to melting up. This is perhaps, premature. Slowing of virus numbers suggests that isolation is having an effect, not that Corvid is defeated, cured or controlled. The first peak is flattening out. Governments are hoping for herd immunity, which so far has not achieved the saturation levels required to become successful at curbing the spread of the virus. There has been sufficiently inadequate testing in most countries to be able to accurately project future trends with any certainty. To infer, therefore that Covid 19 is in retreat is optimistic and probably inaccurate. Which has not curtailed the risk taking currently prevalent in most markets, some backed by inferred government guarantee. (Tax payer funded) Now we take into account the costs. Which are also by no means over despite the considerable intervention from governments. The costs to demand, to cash flow, to confidence, to employment, to travel, leisure and commodities (mostly energy) among others. These are by no means paid for, even with government largesse,(the unlimited debt/ free money tree **** forest). The assumption that Covid will not return post resumption of normal economic activity is an assumption worth vigorously challenging. China has not achieved herd immunity, no country has yet. Until that happens, or a viable cure found (not chloroquine for example) economies and nations will be vulnerable, are still vulnerable. Social distancing will continue, meaning normal economic life will continue to be affected. Return to normal will take longer than we hope. Hence my surprise at the level the markets have risen by. The Dow being a prominent example. Point being; values are heading to over value already and the Q2 and Q3 numbers are going to make sobering reading. Not to mention employment /unemployment. This is not going to magically go away. We are closer to understanding and digesting the problems faced and doing something to solve them. But it's not all over. It's not even half time. Bare in mind Corona is a virus. The common cold is a Corona virus. We are yet to find a cure for the common cold. Where there is a will there is a way, but that requires concerted global policy and effort in a time when nations and politicians are too busy thinking about themselves (as is the trend). I will refrain from commenting too much about president Trump's response to this crisis as I would give him considerably less than the 10/10 he believes his performance and response merits. Performance yes, a reality star performs, a president governs. Forgive the comment , he has provoked my ire since Feb on this. It will pass. The markets have moved too soon. Yes there are seeming bargains out there. Not many.
  11. True. Going for the big swings works and so does scalping for everyday gains. Big swings often take time and sometimes one has to be patient and wait and pay the vig for the wait. Taking profit where one finds it is no bad thing and to be encouraged and applauded surely? Especially if one is lucky enough to short, trade out and then reverse one's position and profit by each swing. I agree if one takes a position and is going long and has a clear target in mind there is little point trading in and out, but when there is obvious profit what's wrong with taking it? Traders seem to have different approaches to gain. If one were running a bot one could easily programme it to do exactly that.
  12. Aye man, volatility is the multiplier!
  13. Sound policy. It's a waiting game. I am prepared to sit on paper and real losses in oil and gasoline because I know the position is a good one. No pain no gain Bought Brent at 27.25 and 30.01, gasoline at 5500 and 6000 (which is real cheap) Have gone long on GBP/EUR and am going long GBP/USD. Still shorting Wall Street as it may have rallied too soon and 19-20k range is a tempting option to return to buying the market. Will wait to buy big 5 shares for another few weeks, until the peak (infection and death rate) have been reached and we all think about a return to work (those who still have a job). Then ride the Bull up, scalping all the way. That's the plan with us, even though it is fraught with risk, though we are banking on Corvid 19 not ending the world, just changing it and making the most of the times of change which are full of opportunity. Good luck and stay well.
  14. A market suspension makes sense only for the short term (max one month).Market sentiment will return only when there is a strong feeling that the virus had been controlled. To keep markets open in this slow motion car crash of volatility is only encouraging more uncertainty and panic.
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