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786Trader

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786Trader last won the day on July 27

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  1. When was it ever not thus? They are holding cash as they sense the next down turn and realise equity is too risky. So holding 20- 30% in cash makes sense in tumultuous times. Also, how can you tax it if it is constantly on the move? Obscenely wealthy companies, individuals and families do not like paying tax as they fundamentally distrust govt (comes from bribing so many of them, I suppose). Also, holding cash means that when bargains come along, the money is there to put a down a deposit, leaving one free to borrow the rest at just over zero% interest. Win win. Nice work if you can get it.
  2. Fair point Dmedin. I was speaking from a market perspective. Stimulus is direct q/e, without the middleman. Yes the people of the US really need it now, but this is an election year and this is politics, we all are aware that politicians rarely give a **** about actual normal people, so it should be of little surprise they are want to be forthcoming with the folding green stuff (or credits in modern vernacular) needed by all of those actual voters and non voters. It is a game of spite and malice played with real people's lives. In truth, the markets don't give a **** about people's lives, it is not the function of a market to actually give a ****, that should be the job of elected politicians who are supposed to have a mandate to act for the people they represent. I know, pure fantasy....
  3. Like the alternative position. By markets I refer to the Dow which (to my mind) has looked over valued when it hit 27750 last year. Why overvalued? By historic measures such as P/e and EBITA. Really showing my age ,I know. Agree this crisis has precipitated the convergence of pre existing tech into a new work dynamic and it is understandable that people and companies want a piece of it. However, one should examine the financials and bottom line. For example has Apple's profit increased commensurate with its share price over the last year? Or Facebooks? Or Tesla? Tesla being a good case in point. Tesla's profit are contingent on govt largesse, in the form of green subsidy per vehicle. Share price has increased 400%+ in 10 months, but have profits? Is Tesla the only manufacturer of EVs? Will it continue to maintain market dominance? How reliant is Tesla on Elon Musk? Is Tesla truly disruptive tech? I agree Tech and Data will be the main economic drivers of value going forward. But also suspect their market dominance will be tempered by regulation, both in the USA and abroad. This will affect profits as the FANGs become viewed more as utilities then innovative tech firms. It is entirely feasible the markets will push on as equity values have historically done, especially so in the last decade. My point was the markets and especially the Dow have over compensated, as exchanges generally do, and such is the case now. In a virus free environment, with near full employment , my argument loses gravitas, but I tend to try and look objectively at the present. The present market conditions suggest the need for stimulus to keep the engine of commerce moving and stimulus is not what it is getting. Hence the loss of confidence and fall in price of the Dow.
  4. The markets love stimulus. Talk of stimulus is stimulating. It excites the markets, brings them up, perks them up, they rise like a spring tide with even the idea of stimulating stimulus. Oohh stimulus is soo exciting I know markets will rise. The markets are saying " give it to me", Congress is saying "I've got it, You want it? Yes, you know you do" Predicament Trump says "I gonna give it to you and it's going to be real big!" Jerome says, watching on, " Go on give it them " .. coy Mitch says "ooh you want too much but I'm gonna give it to you"...And so the markets rise with even the mention of the word Stimulus. The markets foment and rise in anticipation....and promises are made...and the markets rise. And rise. Until investors realise (too late) that they have bid the market up so high that it's suddenly over valued and overbought! Again. Reminds me of particularly unsuccessful nights in my youth when finding an attractive, potential partner and flirting and hoping, but at the end of the evening wholly and completely failing to get laid. Such is the Mitch, Nancy and Donny love in. Perish the thought, it's enough to put one off one's breakfast. Even if they did get it on now and sign a deal, it would be like a **** of shame, a liason of ludity, a sham shameful **** that all parties come to regret. "We did it for the union" even if the very idea of unity is anathema to them. I fear they have missed their opportunity for stimulating stimulus. No big bribes for Thanksgiving, for black Friday, for the election. Maybe a bit more talk, but sooner or later the markets and electorate know they are not going to get lucky any time soon. After the election maybe, which may not be as straightforward as appears now, with perhaps a split senate and an uncertain result, as there is no way Teflon Don will be going easy into the night (even if he has lost by 6 million votes). Maybe it's better to dream of stimulus and politicians doing the right thing for their electorate..... I did say dream....
  5. It is easy to see this as a great global conspiracy, Casey. I do get it. Exploiting peoples better natures with fear and mistrust. Breaking normal patterns of behaviour and connections with others, except virtual ones. Changing the way we live and work for such a long time that it becomes a new normal. Breaking normal patterns of movement. Stifling all art, music and means of expression and communal experience. The question comes back to whether this was (Covid 19) an unhappy accident of fate or an ominous twist of same. Who gains from this? Yes, disruption is considerable and the bill will be massive. But there are those nations which are doing just fine out of this, even many equity markets have hit new all time highs. Some nations have managed this crisis and done well. Others (like us and the USA) have not. But even US equity is heading for a new all time high and will be projected to be at worse net zero (equity loss/gain) in 2020. We wont. So do we blame China, both for the disease and for it's recovery? Or ourselves for not seeing this coming when all of China shut down in January? Yes it has exposed the incompetence of governments and exploited the fear of the general public worldwide. It is also not as bad or dangerous for most people as has been made out (with many exceptions). Your figures clearly show it is the weak ( secondary conditions) and vulnerable and old that die from this and the unfortunate that get sicker for longer (experience long Covid symptoms). However, if this is a natural occurence, with Mother nature in the driving seat then we have to accept it. We have to accept it anyway. If this was man made, then it is a different more sinister matter, but so far the evidence suggests this is Mother nature saying enough is enough. Change. The virus may/has been exploited by many for their own ends (Putin 's job for life), but not all have done this. Most just want it to end (especially my son and my family, probably yours too). Like it or not things have changed, we have to move with the changes. Or be left behind.
  6. Hi Casey, Regarding testing, in the last 3 weeks, my son has had a nasty and virulent flu type virus that was inflecting his half his school. He gave it to me 2 weeks ago. It was a nasty virus (bed ridden for 3 days) so on the 4 th day elected to do the right thing and get tested for Covid. Had to travel 35 miles and wait for a day for an appointment. The test came back negative. Had all the symptoms of a cold and flu (including headache, runny nose, chest pains, fatigue, temperature), but the test said no virus. I would therefore suggest that the test for Covid is, in fact a test for Covid 19 and not a test for every and any corona virus. Agree 95% of people will be fine if contracting the virus ( and lots and lots of people are contracting the virus everyday), but those that develop more severe symptoms will not consider it a blessing from God, for example. Or fake news. It is what it is and it will pass.
  7. Hi THT, thanks for the reply and info. Am interested in the 369 progressions and note that Tesla had a similar sympathy for 369. It's not exactly light reading, but fortunately he (Gann) was not writing under the influence of narcotics, in secret, like Nostradamus. Sepharial, also found useful keys, that he then obfuscated and sold. Strange, early nineteenth century trends; discovery, paranoia, followed by obfuscation into meaninglessness. Thing is, as the old adage goes " you can take a horse to water, but they might not drink", which is valid for all information, teaching and learning. If you are ready and receptive then it is easy, if not, no chance. Any how am quietly, slowly working through it. As for US Equities going UP and Up and UP over the next 14 years, it is consistent with modern trends of US equity over the last 20 years. One has naturally not mentioned the corrections (which is where the really big profits can be made). For example, selling equity in Feb 2020 and repurchasing same equity in early April 2020 would have returned a gain of 37% in 6 weeks, holding them for 6 months would have returned another gain of 54% vs just holding and a gain of net zero. Shorting Oil in Feb and repurchasing same in April, a return of 200%..... that which goes up, will want to go down, it is the nature of things. Which I suspect which is what Gann was suggesting and presenting a working formula to explain said movements, much as Tesla was hot on the vibrations of 3,6 and 9.... Am still not convinced of the value of the Dow atm, and feel at the least, it should return more to its 20 and 50 day moving averages (28000+/- 150) sooner than later (by Friday), but more realistically fall 3-5% in the near future. Otherwise, it's on track to break out and exceed all time highs and head higher into the clouds, which seems like bad timing atm(pardon the pun). Either way would suggest the Dow is in for another whipsaw roller-coaster until the completion of this election cycle. As for Oil, go long, people will start flying and moving again and the price will return to more normal levels Q1-Q2 2021 (Brent @$60) and beyond. Short term, wait until next Monday to go long, as oil futures move more or less in tandem with US Equity futures and suspect and expect some volatility this week. That said, have a fine day and hopefully manage to make a little profit.🙂
  8. Hey THT, Reading Gann atm, it's very nineteenth century reading and quite heavy going... for 2020 his notes suggest market and stock highs...... as markets can be viewed as cyclical does that not suggest 2021 US Indices will be lower? Question being how high can or will the US indices go? Are we currently at resistance before reversal or resistance to the upside, with more market euphoria in the wings upto new all time highs beyond the 30000 for the Dow even up to 31000+- 500? My personal bias is the peaks have been hit and resistance will prove too much; translating to bearish trends, where there may be sense in buying, then selling the "dip"....However, I have been consistently confounded by the Dow movements. Less so FTSE which has behaved pretty much as expected and has failed to weather the nexus of Covid and Brexit (potentially bad and hard) and lost a full 30% from market highs in Feb 2020. It could go much lower... US equities (Dow) have lost 3% by comparison. To return to markets, I appear to understand (Oil and gasoline) am generally bullish over the medium and long term. (Counter to equity). Suggest there may be a shift to commodities when equity fails to shine. Bear in mind also there has been an irreversible shift between how people live and how and where they work, how they purchase (bye bye cash) what they value and what is of value. (USD anyone?No I'll take gold thanks, or bitcoin?). A paradigm shift. Folk are going into equity because it is seems to be the only game in town (it isn't) and there seems to be pent up tensions that need to be released, so equity seems the only logical answer. Even if earnings are down 20% year on year, for example. It's counter intuitive. Big time. Just curious to hear your thoughts.
  9. Interesting, until western civilisation finds alternatives to American indices and the USD. Wont be long. Your are right to recommend buying and holding US equity indices for now. It is still horribly over valued and over bought (imo). But it is also the biggest game in town (the planet) atm. It is in full on casino mode. Risk on and on and on. And the Fed will underwrite it all.
  10. Cheer up Dmedin, it could get worse.. You could be shorting the Dow. Or voting for Trump. As for revenge trading, simply give it a miss, over trading same. Losing money is a fact when trading, just as making it is. Suicidal dispression? Never. Desperation? Methinks not. Believe in yourself, she'll be alright mate (as the kiwis say). Take a break and clear your mind. Walk or swim or just go somewhere conducive to relaxation. Give screens a miss, then come back, trust your instincts and rationale and knock some trades out of the park. Rage trading is bad for the body, soul and wallet. Don't forget to relax and take time for yourself.
  11. Don't fight the Fed, which should be amended to also include, don't mess with Robin Hood. Dow is again flirting with 28500 plus, despite the lack of the ever elusive stimulus, seriously high unemployment, whole sectors of the economy moribund or absent without leave (hospitality, air transport, entertainment such as movies, live events), plus Covid still has not had the temerity to exit stage left, as cases continue to rise. Not to mention the massive deficit and corporate debt, which they frankly don't seem to give two turds about. Equity traders ignore all of these details in favour of a rose tinted future where the only way for the Dow is up. And up. The market corrected in September, took stock for exactly a day and then headed for the heights again. Dow futures do not reflect the state of the US economy, they reflect a casino in full risk on mode. And Casino it is. Hence, shorting the Dow is expensive, as it is defying logic or common sense, there is so much liquidity and is, it seems the only game in town. Logically, the Dow should be sitting around the 25500-26500 mark, maximum. That price more fairly reflects the state of the economy. Apparently not though and equity is worth whatever the market will pay, such is the power of free/cheap money, market forces and an army of traders purchasing more and more equity, even if that equity will only yield a dividend of 1%. In many cases dividend will be negligible and it is the expected increase in value of the stock that will be the yield. All of which makes eminent sense, when not in a recession. However, the inconvenient truth that America is struggling economically, is nursing mass unemployment, has a health crisis and is barely moving is being willfully ignored. It's like the world has gone a bit mad, in this crazy 2020 year. All of this has made shorting the Dow an expensive business. Oil on the other hand has behaved in a consistent manner according to supply and demand. As has gasoline, which is a relief. Storm Delta has proved that nicely (supply shrunk as 3.4 million BPD were cut off from supply and prices adjusted accordingly). Not everything is as crazy as American equity, which is ironic as oil and gasoline traders are rarely the personification of probity or common sense. Crazy 2020. Totally crazy.
  12. Have been following this thread with interest. Are you suggesting that a test will prove positive even if one has only had a cold 3 months ago (for example)? I presumed being in government meant by extension one was "in" power, certainly in control of the executive, which has not changed greatly since the advent of this virus back in January. I am still missing motive. Perhaps I have failed to notice the wood for the trees? Are you suggesting this virus is the same as any normal influenza virus, just slightly more deadly? This virus has thrived in any weathers (unlike influenza) and has best been tempered through social distancing measures. Or should we ignore all social distancing and let this virus spread unchecked? As it may be considered a fraud perpetrated by big pharma/dark, anonymous govt forces? Or is it really a nasty novel virulent virus that affects mostly the old, infirm, obese and weak? Your figures suggest no/negligible excess deaths this year for the UK, which is unusual and one must examine more closely the relevant data set concerned. For example you figures are for 2019/2020 and not for 2020 which surely would be a more accurate comparison.(First 9 months of 2020 to first 9 months 2019, 2018, 2017 for example). Enjoy the remains of your weekend🙂
  13. It doesn't matter what kind of edge you have, it's an edge and therefore an advantage. I shall look up Gann's basic methods and implement them on an experimental basis with real, hard, cold cash. Thank you for your interesting points. Am of the mind to discount and assume nothing, which makes viewing and implementing alternative market theorems easier. Some are crackpot theories, with a grain of truth (like Qanon) others perfectly functional but alternative rationale as yet unaccepted...look forward to Ganns theory. Will not get lost in the tunnel!
  14. France has over 10 000 new cases a day atm, rates are increasing, where they were decreasing. There is a resurgence of the virus where social distancing has been lax. True death rates are down as health systems become used to managing this novel virus, but it is still a virus most people would not want to contract. Most of us don't want to,partly as quarantine is both inconvenient and frustrating. There are those who support various conspiracy theories regarding this virus such as those who support Qanon. I am not sure they are right. They could be very wrong and slightly, dangerously mad(Qanoners). This is a novel virus with a 1-2% death rate (depending on methods of reporting death). Is this a chronic overreaction of world governments to this crisis? Is it a conspiracy to destroy the global economy? Certainly most governments have handled it poorly. Again back to the question of who gains? And why. Looks more like a natural phenomenon, a particularly virulent virus that preys on the weak,obese and vulnerable, plus it seems to hit the bame community harder than most others. It is novel and not in a good way.
  15. Why do you think both political parties want this (Covid) to last forever? Who gains from this?
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