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Welcome To Q2; Still Bullish. BUT China is a problem


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Good afternoon people!

The first trading week of q2 is upon us, March surveys very strong again, multiple countries with a new 12M high reading, 84% breadth reading, MT Global score 56.2%, US 59.1%, Euro area 62.5%, UK 58.9% Outlier is indeed China at 50.6% and 11M low reading. Should China keep deteriorating the AUD will continue to be weak. Check out monthly Production Managers Index below.

 

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Hopefully, the Chinese kick things back up and the global economy can start humming again. Over in Europe, ( *Face palm*) European politicians can’t stop digging no matter how deep they are in the hole. Everyone should know by now about the probability of infection and who are mostly in real danger. Overall survival rate is 99.85%. Yet, some regions cases rise again and they immediately lockdown again. National lockdown in France. Again. 

This causes or will cause disruption, but the last reading of IFO, INSEE, NBB, ESI and so forth was very strong. Germany, France, Italy, Spain – the “big4” – galloping higher in confidence. and so is the inflation outlook.

With a higher inflation outlook plus robust consumer confidence readings, I maintain and reiterate my bullish out look. Currently seeking to add more exposure to energy, financials and consumer discretionary stocks.

Below are calculated Trading Risk Range levels ( buy when the price nears the low end sell at the top end)

SPY (Bullish) 389.852 - 404.825  prev. close: 400.61

QQQ (Bullish) 312.454 - 329.255  prev. close: 324.57

IWM (Bullish) 206.687 - 228.873  prev. close: 223.74

XLK (Bullish) 130.055 - 137.634  prev. close: 135.48

XLF (Bullish) 33.062 - 35.177  prev. close: 34.47

XLE (Bullish) 46.455 - 51.883  prev. close: 50.31

XLU (Bullish) 62.376 - 65.262  prev. close: 63.98

XLI (Bullish) 95.155 - 100.855  prev. close: 98.78

XLC (Bullish) 71.595 - 75.91  prev. close: 74.58

XLP (Bullish) 67.239 - 69.923  prev. close: 67.98

XLB (Bullish) 76.59 - 81.669  prev. close: 79.49

XLY (Bullish) 163.187 - 171.863  prev. close: 169.42

XLV (Neutral) 114.894 - 118.583  prev. close: 116.39

XLRE (Bullish) 38.944 - 40.963  prev. close: 40.12

XRT (Bullish) 82.056 - 92.403  prev. close: 89.51

GLD (Bearish) 157.23 - 163.888  prev. close: 161.98

SLV (Bearish) 21.991 - 23.727  prev. close: 23.15

USO (Bullish) 38.027 - 43.63  prev. close: 41.84

BNO (Bullish) 14.72 - 17.024  prev. close: 16.31

TLT (Bearish) 132.816 - 140.337  prev. close: 137.51

UUP (Bullish) 24.847 - 25.211  prev. close: 25.01

VIX (Bearish) 15.774 - 19.951  prev. close: 17.33

BTCUSD (Bullish) 51259 - 62012  prev. close: 58274

 

Good Luck out there .

 CA

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