Morning note 05-05-2021

[Rintel]

 

Good morning.

Interesting day in the market yesterday. London had a flash crash . got traders spooked . Some ISM data was release and it showed a slight decrease in the economic momentum that we have had since the middle of last year. I continue to remain bullish, however I am starting to pay more attention to these data readings, I think at some point in the next 3-4 months, things could deteriorate and its important to be ahead of that. If my thoughts don’t come to fruition the response is simple keep buying stocks till the cows come home. If they do , then I Would allocate some capital to bonds and gold plus stay away from speculative assets such as cryptos. Anyway lets get on with the show.

 

Commodities had a good day yesterday especially Brent which was up >20% three months to date. 

In the industrial space copper corrected 0.11% but up 28% in the last three months.

Cryptos **** the bed all across the board with BTC and ETH  down over 6 and 5% respectively. Bearing in mind that ETH is up over 100% in the last three months BOOOOYAAAA!!! The only Crypto that was up on my board ( granted it is a limited sample) was LINK which was up 8%.

 

In the volaspace if you recall on today morning I warned that we could see periods of higher volatility. 

Well ladies and gents we are currently experiencing periods of higher vol. 

 

And as a result most 5/10 are down as of the close on Tuesday. This is welcome news for now as should provide the good buying opportunity I was referring to earlier in the week.

That being said, I would like to point out a few things I found interesting in the implied volatility space. 

 

 

 

 

That table, is the implied vs realised volatility differentiated and put in percentage terms vs where it has been in the last 1,3,5,10 and 30 days. 

Future expected volatility is now trending higher on a 30 day basis. So Whilst we are bullish it is important to not get suckered into buying things at the top end go their respective ranges. The reason is if these green volatility premiums get realised and manifest into high/ realised volatility , you will pretty much be buying a top in your respective markets .

So it is important to start paying attention . Are you near the top of the range ? Sell some and collect some profits. 

 

Charts 

BTC-USD Right still in no-mans land from April its lost some momentum as ETH has taken over the mantle of performance.

ETH— unstoppable ( for now) 

For anyone who wants to get involved I think patience is key here . A parabolic move like this always corrects.

ADA near the top end of the range and looking super bullish. Wait for a pull back. 

 

 

LINK to the moon... wait for a pull back

 

 

 

 

DOGE WOW……….

 

I was hoping that it's stationary returns would come back to acceptable levels but….didn't happen this Mfka touched it and went blasting off…. Remarkable .. Touched the top end of its range and said good bye. BUT we are not here to pontificate on missed opportunities were are here to risk manage and protect our capital. As per the process it hasn’t changed…. Wait for the price to get to the bottom end of the range… don’t chase resist the fear of missing out. Thats is why you have the math on your side. 

 

 

 

 

 

Thats it for now folks any special requests buzz me and  I will look up any ticker you want . Peace !!!

CA.

 

Before I go one more thing ...... US treasury bonds are now lower than they were 6 weeks ago.......... as treasuries go so does inflation ... the crypto party may well come to an end soon but not yet... Plenty of spelling and grammar errors... focus on the ideas..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 5, 2021 by Rintel
spelling error deleted pics

[Rintel]

Cant delete the charts in the bottom... ignore them 😀