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Notes for the day ( Plus some new exciting tools) 27/05/21


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Ahoy!

VIX down stonks up .......This is the way 

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The market continues to remain bullish as the reopening continues.  The bearish tilt everyone had 10ish days ago has since evaporated  as we are now closer to all time highs than we were during the correction. I did say bears would get killed in my post here 👇

     Are we due for a correction ? I don't know . What I do know is that the base effects gripping the global economy right now hasn't been observed for a very long time. Seeing that the VIX is now trading lower and could possibly go even lower maybe sub16, It is very important to not get FOMOed into buying or chasing prices higher.  I executed some purchases during the correction last week and I am now looking to collect some profits slowly. Not selling all my shares of course just a little bit ( Remember I had a 30% drawdown in March before building my current tool kits  which are now by the grace of God starting to pay off, hence my decision to collect some profits. ). 

If you recall I was thinking about the Energy Sector earlier in the week. See post down below.  

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      This is the refreshed data as of close yesterday. We can see that my spread calculation between 30d Implied Vol and Realised Vol vs the last 30 days has collapsed more than 70% to -2.65%....BUT in the last day or so it's ALOT LOWER and has jumped from -0.39 to -10.89% . This could mean that we maybe getting a good buying opportunity in the immediate to short term as realised volatility is alot higher than what the option market has priced in. Also, the oil volatility OVX time series  is now sitting at a very very low point. When I put these all together, it tells me prices could go lower, but seeing as we are still in a reflationary and recovering economic playhouse, I would be comfortable buying the dip should we get one in the immediate to short term.

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I have developed a 3 month return matrix that I am currently implementing as another tool in my toolkit. It measures the return of an asset vs three months ago and color codes them so that a user can get more insight into the behaviour of the returns of any asset. ( Green = bullish , below = neutral , red = bearish) .  Quite excited to see what insights I can gain whilst using this new tool . 

Check it out below I also did one for Cyrptos .... cuz why not ;-). 

1586926559_Screenshot2021-05-27at14_16_08.thumb.png.83bbf1cd757304825799966eb9d9c8aa.png

 

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Just like my other tools these refresh every day based on the closing prices of the previous day. 

 

Any who good luck out there guys 

Take care

CA.

 

 

 

 

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