Jump to content

Macro Outlook


Recommended Posts

 Delta variant worries but markets mostly watch monetary policy and inflation 

 Concerning' coronavirus variant found in Sauk County

 

While the Delta variant has been spreading for several months now, investors now seem to be worried about the consequences for the recovery of economic growth. 

 

Indeed, the number of cases in Asia but also in the United Kingdom or in other countries where vaccination campaigns are going well, could lead governments to order new restrictions,  or even  targeted lockdowns. Australia has also just announced that a third region is entering lockdown and that the one decided in Sydney will be postponed, although  it was due to end today. 

 

The number of daily cases at the global level published yesterday shows a high since last May, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. 

 

Beyond the epidemic, it is the inflation data that  worries investors, as the general rise in prices continues to accelerate and should lead, sooner or later,  central banks to act to  prevent an explosion of it. 

 

To this end, we will follow the monetary policy decision of the European Central Bank on Thursday. Christine Lagarde will have to try to reassure the markets about the transitional effect of the rise in inflation,  in order to justify a monetary policy that is still very accommodative, essential to the continuation of the upward trend in the markets over the past year. 

 

The next FOMC will take place next week, followed by   household consumer price  data.  A tense week is to be expected for markets. 

 

This week other data will be closely monitored, with the manufacturing PMIs in both Europe and the United States and these could show a slight slowdown, although still firmly in expansion territory. 

 

In the oil market, yesterday's sharp drop due to investor concern about the rise in the number of cases of the Delta variant  coinciding with the announcement of the agreement on the Opec+ production increase seems to be calming down today. 

 

But if the risks regarding the epidemic continue, it could lead to a further decline, as supply increases (OPEC+ agreement) and demand could  find itself under pressure (Variant Delta) naturally leading to a downward price balancing. 

 

On another topic, we will be paying attention to earnings season,  as many S&P500 companies will release their figures for the first half of this week, including Netflix and Philip Morris on Tuesday, Johnson and Johnson, Coca-cola and Verizon communications on Wednesday or Intel, AT&T, American Express and Twitter on Thursday. 

 

But next week will be the most intensive regarding  earnings, with nearly 50% of the S&P500 in terms of capitalization publishing  their  results. Remember that next week will also be the week of the Fed's monetary policy decision and the PCE figures. 

 

Finally, the cryptocurrency market will be monitored with great attention. The break of the $30,000 threshold, which kept hope of a possible rebound in the short term, has just been broken and this could lead to a sharp acceleration towards the $20,000 target. 

 

The break of the $ 28,800,  which served 2 times of support on the BTC, will be the important test and its crossing should lead to a return to the old historical high observed in 2017. 

 

 

Vincent BOY 

Market Analyst Paris, 20 July  2021

IG France 

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      20,104
    • Total Posts
      88,179
    • Total Members
      69,100
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Protato
    Joined 04/10/22 18:59
  • Posts

    • Stocks: AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, GOOGL, BRK.B, SQ, META, NFLX, ENPH, MSFT, BAC, JPM. Elliott Wave  SP500 US Stock Bear Market: AMZN, AAPL, NVDA, TSLA, GOOGL, BRK.B, SQ, META, NFLX, ENPH, MSFT, BAC, JPM, GS. Elliott Wave Technical Analysis  Stock Market News: Stocks rise, however the move up continue to move up on lower volume, divergence and corrective bear market rally, that should complete in the next trading session Stock Market Summary Elliott Wave Count: Elliott Wave Analysis - (iv) of c) of 4 of (1) Analysis US Stocks: Tesla TSLA, Amazon AMZN, Nvidia (NVDA), Apple AAPL, Microsoft MSFT, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B),Block, Inc (SQ), Meta Platforms, Netflix (NFLX), Enphase (ENPH), Alphabet GOOGL. XFL Finance Sector ETF, JPMorgan JPM & Bank of America BAC, Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) Stock Market Trading strategies: Looking to short the top and turn in the trading session Video Chapters 00:00 SP500 06:58 Apple (AAPL) 12:22 NVIDIA (NVDA) 14:40 Amazon (AMZN) 18:35 Meta Platforms (META) 20:17 Netflix (NFLX)  21:41 Enphase (ENPH) 24:14 Tesla (TSLA) 27:59 Alphabet (GOOGL)  30:35 Microsoft (MSFT) 31:31 Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) 32:33 Block Inc. (SQ)  33:38 Banks JPM, GS 36:14 End. Thanks for supporting! US Stocks: Basic Elliott Wave Counts Apple AAPL  Elliott Wave 4  Corrective rally Amazon AMZN  Elliott Wave 4 Nvidia (NVDA) Elliott Wave  ii) Berkshire Hathaway BRK/B Elliott Wave 4 Alphabet GOOGL  Elliott Wave 4 Meta Platforms FB Elliott Wave iv) Netflix (NFLX)  Microsoft MSFT  Elliott Wave 4 Tesla TSLA  Elliott Wave iii) Square SQ /Block Inc. Elliott Wave 4 JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Elliott Wave 4 Analyst Peter Mathers TradingLounge™ Australian Financial Services Licence - AFSL 317817 Source: tradinglounge com  
    • US DOLLAR TALKING POINTS: The US Dollar has dropped by as much as 3.3% from the high that was set last Wednesday and many are asking if the USD has topped. Given how aggressively overbought the greenback had become, this retracement looks to be a correction in the trend with no evidence yet of anything larger. However – price is approaching some major supports and performance around those levels will be key for determining near-term strategy. Of particular importance is the fact that the US Dollar is a composite of global currencies so the bigger question is when sell-offs in EUR/USD or GBP/USD might return and, in a related item, how will USD/JPY hold up with the pair pegged to the 145 level thought to be the line-in-the-sand for Japan’s Ministry of Finance? Oct 4, 2022 | Full article on DailyFX James Stanley, Senior Strategist
    • EUR/USD and GBP/USD edge up while USD/JPY falters at ¥145.00 again A pause in the dollar rally sees USD/JPY stuck below recent highs, but both the euro and sterling have made gains in early trading against the greenback.    Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 04 October 2022  EUR/USD rebound continues After falling to a twenty-year low last month, the euro continues to rebound against the US dollar with EUR/USD. This still looks very much like a counter-trend bounce that sees the price head back to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $1.1018 and then begins to falter. This would be in line with previous bounces since April, all of which have found it impossible to hold above the 50-day SMA. This move could see the price head back to $1.01. Further targets lie at $1.02 and then $1.0374. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD recovers $1.13 The GBP/USD continues to defy the doomsters with a recovery above $1.13. Its own counter-trend bounce remains intact, and if previous bounces are any guide there is still some potential for upside, even if it only reaches the 50-day SMA. Like EUR/USD, the pound is still making lower highs and lower lows against the dollar, with the previous peak at $1.176 marking out the initial target for this bounce. Both stochastics and moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) have room to move up to support this move, but selling the rallies still appears to be the approach here for this downtrending market, although it looks like for now there is still a desire to push the pair higher in the short-term. Source: ProRealTime USD/JPY stalls below ¥145.00 It does look like ¥145.00 is the ceiling in USD/JPY for the time being – repeated attempts to break higher have come to naught, despite the continued strength of the US dollar. Indeed, it is perhaps precisely that we need a pullback in order for the trend to revive. The pair rallied hard from the August-lows, and now sits at some distance from the 50-day SMA (currently ¥139.15). A pullback towards this level might ‘clear the air’, create a higher low and provide a springboard for fresh bullish momentum. Source: ProRealTime
×
×
  • Create New...