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FTSE 100 hits yet another record high while DAX 40 and S&P 500 resume their ascents Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 amid strong US earnings. Source: Getty Images Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Publication date: Friday 26 April 2024 13:42 FTSE 100 hits yet another record high Foreign investor buying of the undervalued UK blue chip index led to further gains in the FTSE 100 which is trading at yet another record high. The 8,200 zone is now in focus, above which lies the 8,300 mark which is where the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the March-to-June 2020 advance, projected higher from the October 2020 low, can be found. Support sits between the early-to-mid-April highs and Wednesday’s low at 8,046 to 8,003. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 recovers from Thursday’s low The DAX 40 was dragged lower by its US counterparts following the release of much weaker-than-expected preliminary Q1 GDP data but overnight recovered on better-than-expected US earnings. A rise above Thursday’s 18,080 high would engage this week’s high at 18,238 ahead of the 18,500 region. Yesterday’s low was made along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 17,815. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 resumes its ascent The S&P 500 resumes its ascent, having on Thursday slipped to 4,990 on disappointing US Q1 preliminary GDP data, before recovering on strong earnings by the likes of Alphabet, Microsoft and Snap. The index is heading towards the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) 5,114 above which the April downtrend line can be seen at 5,146. Slips may find support can be seen around Monday’s 5,039 high. Source: ProRealTime

Gold price, Brent crude price and natural gas price rise in early trading Commodity prices have gained in early trading, recovering from the lows seen earlier in the week. Source: Getty Images Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Friday 26 April 2024 13:25 Gold up as price recovers from late April weakness The price has pushed higher in early trading, reinforcing the view that a higher low has been formed. Additional gains would head towards the $2400 highs from the middle of April, and then on to $2425. For the moment, $2300 appears to have been established as a higher low, so a close back below this level would be needed to open the way to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Source: ProRealTime WTI higher for a second day After bouncing off the 50-day SMA earlier in the week the price has continued to push higher, with further gains in early trading this morning. A higher low appears to have formed, and now the price is testing trendline resistance from the early April high. A breakout above this would target $85.72, last Friday’s high, and then on to $87, the highs from the beginning of April. A reversal back below $82 might result in a test of the 50-day SMA and last week’s low. Source: ProRealTime Natural Gas gains continue Despite a sudden drop on Wednesday the price has maintained the move higher from the beginning of April. Trendline support from the end of March continues to underpin the price action, and continued gains will target the 100-day SMA and the highs from the beginning of the week at 2130. Sellers will want to see a close below Thursday’s low and below trendline support to mark a more bearish development. Source: ProRealTime

Gold drops amid eased tensions, eyeing potential boosts from a wavering dollar around the $2320 level. Silver faces a crucial resistance, outlining future directions for metals as safe-haven demand wanes. Source: Getty Forex Shares Commodities Gold Market trend Risk Written by: Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg Publication date: Friday 26 April 2024 06:45 Gold bulls looks for inspiration in the dollar after tensions subside Implied gold volatility (GVZ) has experienced a notable drop now that the risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East has subsided massively. As a natural result, gold prices have pulled back, but remain at elevated levels. Gold bulls may be looking to a slightly weaker dollar in anticipation of a bullish continuation for the metal, but in recent weeks, gold has appeared detached from its usual inverse relationship with the greenback as the two have risen together. Gold 30-day implied volatility Source: TradingView Gold attempts to lift off support at $2320 Gold, after spending a significant amount of time in overbought territory, has cooled and declined towards the $2320 level, where it has oscillated. With a reduced safe haven appeal, the gold market appears to be in search of the next bullish, or even bearish, catalyst. US data has revealed early signs of vulnerability, which could affect US yields and the dollar if major data points follow suit. But for now, the dollar remains strong, with rate cut bets being pushed further and further out. At this level, $2320 may offer a launchpad for gold if price action unfolds in a similar way to what developed back in March after printing a new all-time high; and consolidating along $2146.80 (prior all-time high) before the next leg higher. However, should bears take over from here, $2222 appears as the nearest level of support before the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) emerges around $2200 flat. Today’s GDP miss and the disappointing flash PMIs have opened the door to weaker US data. Something to keep an eye on in the future. Gold daily chart Source: TradingView Silver (XAG/USD) tests Fibonacci level currently acting as resistance Silver, similarly, to gold, has also dropped sharply as risk sentiment recovered. The rise in risk tolerance provided an opportunity for Indices and high-beta currencies like the Aussie dollar and the pound to claw back losses. Speaking of risky assets, Meta’s forward guidance sent the S&P 500 lower but the magnitude is of the drop is unlikely to prompt a panicked switch to safer assets like gold and silver. Silver hovers around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021 to 2022 decline at $27.40, with the level appearing to provide resistance to a possible bullish continuation. A move to the downside from here would highlight the 61.8% Fib level at $25.30 (coinciding with the 50 day SMA). Silver daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

AUD/USD rises on inflation optimism, testing resistance around 0.6502-0.6533 with sights on 0.6650. Meanwhile, AUD/JPY reaches a decade high, albeit in overbought territory, as market eyes Bank of Japan's next moves. Source: Getty Forex Shares Australian dollar AUD/JPY Bank of Japan Market sentiment Written by: Nick Cawley | Analyst, DailyFX, London Publication date: Friday 26 April 2024 07:21 The Australian dollar has turned higher against its US counterpart over the week as a positive risk sentiment backdrop, and higher-than-forecast domestic inflation gave the currency a boost. This week’s rally has now run into resistance off a cluster of simple moving averages, currently between 0.6502 and 0.6533 and these will need to be cleared to allow the pair to move higher. The recent move has produced five higher lows and higher highs in a row, a bullish setup, while the CCI indicator shows this week’s move has taken the pair into neutral territory, from a heavily oversold position. A move higher - above the three moving averages - opens the way to 0.6650. Support at just under 0.6350 and then between 0.6270 and 0.6287. AUD/USD daily price chart Source: TradingView AUD/USD: traders remain bullish, but recent shifts suggest potential reversal Retail trader data reveals that 61.56% of traders are currently net-long on AUD/USD, with a ratio of 1.60 long positions for every short position. This indicates a bullish sentiment among traders. However, the number of net-long traders has decreased by 6.42% since yesterday and 27.26% since last week. In contrast, net-short positions have increased by 9.77% and 66.35% over the same timeframes. While the contrarian view suggests that the net-long position could lead to further price declines, the recent shifts in sentiment signal that a potential reversal to the upside may be on the horizon for AUD/USD, despite traders remaining net-long. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its latest policy decision overnight, and while all monetary settings are set to remain untouched, the accompanying Quarterly Report may well give some hints to future policy moves. The Japanese yen remains weak and will remain that way until the market is convinced that BoJ is going to move in and prop up the currency with actions, not words. AUD/JPY is back at levels last seen in November 2014, and the daily chart shows a year-long pattern of higher highs and higher lows as the yen wilts against a robust Australian dollar. The CCI indicator shows the pair in extreme overbought territory and this may temper any further short-term move higher. Unless the BoJ makes a stance, AUD/JPY is set to move higher. AUD/JPY: traders remain bearish, but recent shifts strengthen bullish contrarian view Retail trader data reveals that only 18.85% of traders are currently net-long on AUD/JPY, with a short-to-long ratio of 4.30 to 1. This indicates a strong bearish sentiment among traders. However, the number of net-long traders has decreased by 18.81% since yesterday and 49.69% since last week. In contrast, net-short positions have increased by 9.29% and 22.15% over the same timeframes. As contrarian investors, this net-short position suggests that AUD/JPY prices may continue to rise. The increase in net-short positions and the decrease in net-long positions further strengthen our AUD/JPY-bullish contrarian trading bias. AUD/JPY daily price chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The Nasdaq seems on track to recover all of its overnight losses, supported by a 4.4% after-market gain in Microsoft’s share price and an 11.5% after-market surge in Alphabet’s share price. Source: Getty Shares Microsoft Cloud computing Price Share price Revenue Written by: Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore Publication date: Friday 26 April 2024 04:32 Alphabet and Microsoft’s share price surged post-results Following the initial jitters around Meta’s results, after-market earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft offered Wall Street a lifeline, with US equity futures pointing to a recovery in risk sentiments. The Nasdaq seems on track to recover all of its overnight losses, supported by a 4.4% after-market gain in Microsoft’s share price and an 11.5% after-market surge in Alphabet’s share price. The other Magnificent Seven stocks seem set for a positive open as well, with Nvidia up 2.4% and Amazon up 3.1%. Microsoft’s 4Q 2024 round-up Source: Refinitiv Microsoft’s 4Q 2024 results delivered both a top and bottom-line beat. Revenue was 1.8% higher than consensus at $61.9 billion, up 17% year-on-year. Earnings per share (EPS) has beaten expectations by 4.3%, coming in at $2.94 and up 20% from the $2.45 a year ago. Net profit margin improved from last year as well, coming in at 35.5% versus the previous 34.6%. Stronger cloud performance offered reassurances Notably, markets took comfort with the further growth in its cloud division. Revenue from Azure and other cloud services grew stronger-than-expected at 31% versus the 30% prior, which is on track to outpace its top competitors – Google Cloud and Amazon Web Services. Other segments continue to hold up as well, with a 17.5% year-on-year in its ‘More Personal Computing’ segment showing further recovery in consumer demand for personal computers (PCs) after a lacklustre year. Its productivity software has been very much stable as well, with the segment growing 11.8%. Forward guidance was net-positive overall Revenue guidance for 4Q 2024 was a tad lower-than-expected at $64 billion versus the $64.5 billion consensus, but markets may be more forgiving given the company’s positive outlook around artificial intelligence (AI) demand moving forward. “Currently, near-term AI demand is a bit higher than our available capacity” While capital expenditures will continue to increase to keep up with the tech race, Microsoft expects its FY2025 operating margin to decline "only one point year-over-year, even with its significant cloud and AI investments". This offers reassurances that heavy spending on infrastructure will pay off in the near term in terms of higher revenue and will not be an expensive long-term bet. Technical analysis: Microsoft’s share price defending daily cloud support The after-market surge in Microsoft’s share price may suggest that buyers have successfully defended the lower edge of its daily Ichimoku Cloud support at the US$398.40 level, which may likely keep the broader upward trend intact. This marked a key support confluence, which held prices up on at least three occasions since the start of the year. Its daily relative strength index (RSI) is back to retest the key 50 level after breaking below the mid-point to its lowest level September 2023. Any reversion back above the level will bode well for the upward trend to continue. The US$398.40 level will serve as key support to hold, while on the upside, its record high at the US$430 level will be on watch as key resistance to overcome. 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Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 drop back as Hang Seng continues to rally US indices are struggling in the wake of Meta’s earnings last night, but the Hang Seng is showing fresh strength. Source: Getty Images Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Thursday 25 April 2024 13:53 Nasdaq 100 rally torpedoed by Meta earnings The index reversed course yesterday, giving back most of the gains made on Tuesday, as earnings from Meta soured sentiment. The price remains well above last week’s low for the time being, but with more earnings from Big Tech due in the coming week, further upward progress may be difficult. So long as the price holds above last week’s low at 16,970 then a bounce may yet materialise. A close back above 17,700 would help to bolster the bullish view. Alternately, a close back below 16,970 will bring the late 2021 high at 16,630 into play, and then on down to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 stumbles on tech earnings This index also took a knock on Wednesday, though it continues to look like it has created a higher low. A push back above the highs of the week so far at 5093 would mark a bullish development, and would open the way to the 50-day SMA, and then on to the highs from late March at 5274. Sellers will want to see a reversal back below the 100-day SMA and below last week’s low at 4925 to provide a more bearish view. Source: ProRealTime Hang Seng surges through key level This index has seen an impressive bounce from the lows of mid-April, which has caried it above 17,000 and the 200-day SMA. It has also succeeded in closing above the latter, for the first time since July. If the price can manage a close above 17,200, then this will be a significant development. 17,200 was the high from early January, and also the peak of March and April, as well as being support from early November. Further gains target the November 2023 high around 18,300. A reversal back below the 200-day SMA would be needed to put more of a dent in the bullish view. Source: ProRealTime

Sourece: Getty Images Mergers and acquisitions Valuation Iron ore Leverage Balance sheet Written by: Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg Publication date: Thursday 25 April 2024 14:56 Key takeaways BHP has proposed a strategic all-share merger with Anglo American Anglo American's shareholders would receive 0.7097 BHP shares for each Anglo American share, plus shares in Anglo American Platinum and Kumba Iron Ore distributed proportionally This proposal values Anglo American at approximately £31.1 billion, a premium over current valuations The merger aims to combine BHP's high-margin, cash-generative assets and strong balance sheet with Anglo American’s diverse commodities portfolio The proposal remains non-binding, subject to due diligence, with no firm commitment yet made BHP has reserved the rights to alter the terms or structure of the proposal, while also setting a deadline of May 22, 2024, to formalize their intention Further strategic reviews of Anglo American’s operations, particularly its diamond business, are planned post-merger Strategic Merger Proposal BHP has proposed a strategic all-share merger with Anglo American, offering 0.7097 of its shares for each Anglo American share, with additional distributions of shares in Anglo American Platinum and Kumba Iron Ore to Anglo American shareholders. This proposal aims to consolidate the strengths and portfolios of both companies for enhanced market competitiveness and growth. Valuation Premiums and Financial Benefits The proposal values Anglo American's share capital at approximately £31.1 billion, offering a substantial premium over current market valuations. Anglo American shareholders would see an immediate increase in value, with a significant premium on the weighted average share price over the past 90 days, alongside direct holdings in Anglo Platinum and Kumba. Operational Synergies and Growth Potential The merger is designed to leverage operational, procurement, and marketing synergies between BHP and Anglo American, which could enhance profitability and yield significant cash flows. Key synergy areas include combining high-quality assets from both companies, particularly in iron ore, metallurgical coal, and other future-facing commodities like potash and copper. Strategic Review and Talent Integration Post-merger completion, Anglo American’s high-quality operations, including its diamond business, will undergo a strategic review. Furthermore, the merger aims to utilize the deep talent pool from both organizations to drive successful integration and operational excellence, potentially benefiting broader community stakeholders. Conditional and Non-binding Nature of the Proposal The proposal, while detailed, remains non-binding and subject to conditions such as satisfactory due diligence and regulatory approvals. BHP has set a deadline of May 22, 2024, to either declare a firm intention to proceed with the offer or withdraw, emphasizing the cautious approach and compliance with regulatory norms governing such transactions. Anglo American Plc (FTSE) analyst ratings Source: IG TipRanks Based on 12 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month price targets for Anglo American in the last 3 months. The average price target is 2510.77p with a high forecast of 3264.41p and a low forecast of 1741.02p. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Gold and silver losses pause, while Brent crude oil tiptoes higher Gold and silver continue to form an apparent higher low, while oil prices are aiming to resume their move higher. Source: Getty Images Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Thursday 25 April 2024 14:02 Gold selling halted for now For the moment the price has managed to halt any further declines. Early trading has seen the price attempting to move higher, having found buyers at the lows just above $2300. A close above $2340 could trigger a new move to the upside that would target $2400. Sellers will want to see a close back below $2300 and then below $2291, the low from Tuesday, though the broader uptrend is still firmly intact. Source: ProRealTime Brent edges higher Oil prices wobbled yesterday after the solid gains seen on Tuesday, but have put their best foot forward in early trading this morning. A higher close today would help to reinforce the view that a higher low was created last week when the price bounced off the 50-day simple moving average. Further gains would head towards $90, and then on to the early April high around $91.50. Source: ProRealTime Silver stabilises above $27 Silver prices have also stemmed the losses over the past week, holding above $27. A higher close today will help bolster the bullish outlook and suggest that a higher low has formed around $27. Additional gains target the mid-April highs at $29. A close below $26.50 would mark a bearish development and, as with gold, suggest a deeper retracement in a broader uptrend. Source: ProRealTime

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Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon and Meta could be the best AI stocks to watch next month. These stocks are the largest AI stocks in the US based on market capitalisation. Source: Bloomberg 2023 was inarguably the year of AI — as the big NASDAQ tech stocks experienced huge surges in market capitalisation — backed by hopes that artificial intelligence progress, in particular in generative AI, could displace current models of working. These so-called ‘magnificent seven’ have driven much of the gains in the US market, with market darling Nvidia rising to $950 per share in March. However, the company has since corrected to $824, recently suffering a 10% one-day fall as investors weigh up the relative risks and rewards. AI in 2024 While AI is undoubtedly filtering into ever more aspects of daily life and work environments, new tech has a history of inspiring market bubbles which pop before the winners go on to generate sustainable growth. This was arguably the case with the dot-com crash — and while no two scenarios are exactly the same, history does tend to rhyme. On the other hand, the AI advances of the last 18 months have been extraordinary — with artificially generated text, imagery and video available to the masses on a scale never before seen. There are even rumours that OpenAI has developed a model approximating Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) — capable of surpassing human-like intelligence with the ability to self-teach. And then there’s the employee question: many companies are already laying off staff in favour of AI-based replacements, and this trend could be set to continue. With some disquiet not just at Nvidia, but other popular shares including Super Micro Computer, Palantir, ARM and AMD, it remains to be seen whether this is the end of the bubble or simply some profit taking before a sustained move higher. As ever, while there may be significant growth opportunities, there are also risks. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Best AI stocks to watch There is some disagreement on what constitutes an AI stock — and whether it must be the main focus of a company or simply be a significant growth area. Here we have listed the top AI stocks in the US based on companies where AI is a growth area and ordered by market capitalisation. Microsoft Apple Nvidia Amazon Meta Platforms Microsoft Microsoft remains the original global computing power, so it makes sense that the US behemoth tops the list of the best AI stocks to watch — and is now the most valuable company in the world. The business retains a close relationship with OpenAI prior to the famous ChatGPT launch and has invested billions into the company since 2019. In Q2 results, revenue increased by 18% year-over-year to $62 billion, while net income rose by 33% to $21.9 billion. CEO Satya Nadella enthused that ‘we’ve moved from talking about AI to applying AI at scale. By infusing AI across every layer of our tech stack, we’re winning new customers and helping drive new benefits and productivity gains across every sector.’ In upcoming earnings, two metrics will be closely watched: revenue derived from Azure and related services — which rose by 30% in Q2, including 6% from AI — and revenue from the company’s Microsoft 365 Copilot AI tool, as Q3 will be the first full quarter of sales. Arguably, the two are key bellwethers for AI sentiment. Market Capitalisation: $3.03 trillion Apple Apple is in the middle of a market struggle — independent research firm Counterpoint estimates that iPhone sales in key market China fell by 19% in the March quarter — the worst performance since covid-19 struck in 2020. But in Q1 results, Apple saw revenue rise by 2% year-over-year to $119.6 billion, while quarterly earnings per diluted share increased by 16% to $2.18. CEO Tim Cook noted the company’s ‘all-time revenue record in Services’ and also enthused that the company’s ‘installed base of active devices has now surpassed 2.2 billion, reaching an all-time high across all products and geographic segments.’ The focus of upcoming results may be on new product launches, including new iPads on 7 May and iOS 18, which is rumoured to host artificial intelligence capacity entirely offline on customer iPhones. Market Capitalisation: $2.58 trillion Nvidia Nvidia is arguably the prime beneficiary of the AI boom, with a wide economic moat as the ‘picks and shovels’ stock for the artificial intelligence age. In Q4 2024 results, the company saw revenue rise by 265% year-over-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter to a record $22.1 billion, driven by Data Centre revenue which increased by 409% in the year to $18.4 billion. CEO and founder Jensen Huang enthuses that ‘Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point. Demand is surging worldwide across companies, industries and nations… NVIDIA RTX, introduced less than six years ago, is now a massive PC platform for generative AI, enjoyed by 100 million gamers and creators.’ However, clouds may be gathering on the horizon. The 10% one-day drop mentioned above was potentially caused by Super Micro Computers failing to preannounce positive Q3 results as it had last quarter — the business is deeply tied to Nvidia as it makes the titan’s servers. Market Capitalisation: $2.06 trillion Amazon Amazon is well-known as the largest e-commerce retailer in the world, but the company is also a growing operator in the AI space. It offers several cutting-edge AI tools within its AWS business, including Code Whisperer and SageMaker — and clients can customise Amazon’s own machine learning model. Of course, competitors have their owns services, but Amazon is by far the largest cloud computing company, with circa a third of the global market share. Total Q4 net sales increased by 14% year-over-year to $170 billion. Within its e-commerce offering, Amazon uses AI to identify consumer trends, manage inventory and also make personalised product recommendations — including targeted advertising. Then there’s the smart devices, including Alexa and the Fire tablets. CEO Andy Jassy enthuses that the AI opportunity will be ‘tens of billions of dollars of revenue for AWS over the next several years.’ Positively, Bank of America analysts consider that next week’s earnings will see Amazon Web Services and its advertising segment come in on the upside of Wall Street guidance. Market Capitalisation: $1.87 trillion Meta Platforms Meta Platforms now boasts monthly active users of 3.98 billion people across its ‘family’ of apps, comprising Facebook, Instagram, threads and WhatsApp — an increase of 6% compared to Q4 2023. 2023 full-year results saw ad impressions across the family rise by 28% year-over-year, while the average price per advert dropped by 9%. Accordingly, revenue rose by 1% to $134.9 billion. CEO Mark Zuckerberg enthuses that ‘our community and business continue to grow. We've made a lot of progress on our vision for advancing AI and the metaverse.’ A common theme among analysts for 2024 is that the company needs a new catalyst to sustain further gains. But the next catalyst could well come externally — with US politicians considering a ban on competitor TikTok unless parent ByteDance sells the app to a non-Chinese company. Market capitalisation: $1.26 trillion This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon and Meta could be the best AI stocks to watch next month. These stocks are the largest AI stocks in the US based on market capitalisation. Source: Bloomberg 2023 was inarguably the year of AI — as the big NASDAQ tech stocks experienced huge surges in market capitalisation — backed by hopes that artificial intelligence progress, in particular in generative AI, could displace current models of working. These so-called ‘magnificent seven’ have driven much of the gains in the US market, with market darling Nvidia rising to $950 per share in March. However, the company has since corrected to $824, recently suffering a 10% one-day fall as investors weigh up the relative risks and rewards. AI in 2024 While AI is undoubtedly filtering into ever more aspects of daily life and work environments, new tech has a history of inspiring market bubbles which pop before the winners go on to generate sustainable growth. This was arguably the case with the dot-com crash — and while no two scenarios are exactly the same, history does tend to rhyme. On the other hand, the AI advances of the last 18 months have been extraordinary — with artificially generated text, imagery and video available to the masses on a scale never before seen. There are even rumours that OpenAI has developed a model approximating Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) — capable of surpassing human-like intelligence with the ability to self-teach. And then there’s the employee question: many companies are already laying off staff in favour of AI-based replacements, and this trend could be set to continue. With some disquiet not just at Nvidia, but other popular shares including Super Micro Computer, Palantir, ARM and AMD, it remains to be seen whether this is the end of the bubble or simply some profit taking before a sustained move higher. As ever, while there may be significant growth opportunities, there are also risks. Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Best AI stocks to watch There is some disagreement on what constitutes an AI stock — and whether it must be the main focus of a company or simply be a significant growth area. Here we have listed the top AI stocks in the US based on companies where AI is a growth area and ordered by market capitalisation. Microsoft Apple Nvidia Amazon Meta Platforms Microsoft Microsoft remains the original global computing power, so it makes sense that the US behemoth tops the list of the best AI stocks to watch — and is now the most valuable company in the world. The business retains a close relationship with OpenAI prior to the famous ChatGPT launch and has invested billions into the company since 2019. In Q2 results, revenue increased by 18% year-over-year to $62 billion, while net income rose by 33% to $21.9 billion. CEO Satya Nadella enthused that ‘we’ve moved from talking about AI to applying AI at scale. By infusing AI across every layer of our tech stack, we’re winning new customers and helping drive new benefits and productivity gains across every sector.’ In upcoming earnings, two metrics will be closely watched: revenue derived from Azure and related services — which rose by 30% in Q2, including 6% from AI — and revenue from the company’s Microsoft 365 Copilot AI tool, as Q3 will be the first full quarter of sales. Arguably, the two are key bellwethers for AI sentiment. Market Capitalisation: $3.03 trillion Apple Apple is in the middle of a market struggle — independent research firm Counterpoint estimates that iPhone sales in key market China fell by 19% in the March quarter — the worst performance since covid-19 struck in 2020. But in Q1 results, Apple saw revenue rise by 2% year-over-year to $119.6 billion, while quarterly earnings per diluted share increased by 16% to $2.18. CEO Tim Cook noted the company’s ‘all-time revenue record in Services’ and also enthused that the company’s ‘installed base of active devices has now surpassed 2.2 billion, reaching an all-time high across all products and geographic segments.’ The focus of upcoming results may be on new product launches, including new iPads on 7 May and iOS 18, which is rumoured to host artificial intelligence capacity entirely offline on customer iPhones. Market Capitalisation: $2.58 trillion Nvidia Nvidia is arguably the prime beneficiary of the AI boom, with a wide economic moat as the ‘picks and shovels’ stock for the artificial intelligence age. In Q4 2024 results, the company saw revenue rise by 265% year-over-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter to a record $22.1 billion, driven by Data Centre revenue which increased by 409% in the year to $18.4 billion. CEO and founder Jensen Huang enthuses that ‘Accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point. Demand is surging worldwide across companies, industries and nations… NVIDIA RTX, introduced less than six years ago, is now a massive PC platform for generative AI, enjoyed by 100 million gamers and creators.’ However, clouds may be gathering on the horizon. The 10% one-day drop mentioned above was potentially caused by Super Micro Computers failing to preannounce positive Q3 results as it had last quarter — the business is deeply tied to Nvidia as it makes the titan’s servers. Market Capitalisation: $2.06 trillion Amazon Amazon is well-known as the largest e-commerce retailer in the world, but the company is also a growing operator in the AI space. It offers several cutting-edge AI tools within its AWS business, including Code Whisperer and SageMaker — and clients can customise Amazon’s own machine learning model. Of course, competitors have their owns services, but Amazon is by far the largest cloud computing company, with circa a third of the global market share. Total Q4 net sales increased by 14% year-over-year to $170 billion. Within its e-commerce offering, Amazon uses AI to identify consumer trends, manage inventory and also make personalised product recommendations — including targeted advertising. Then there’s the smart devices, including Alexa and the Fire tablets. CEO Andy Jassy enthuses that the AI opportunity will be ‘tens of billions of dollars of revenue for AWS over the next several years.’ Positively, Bank of America analysts consider that next week’s earnings will see Amazon Web Services and its advertising segment come in on the upside of Wall Street guidance. Market Capitalisation: $1.87 trillion Meta Platforms Meta Platforms now boasts monthly active users of 3.98 billion people across its ‘family’ of apps, comprising Facebook, Instagram, threads and WhatsApp — an increase of 6% compared to Q4 2023. 2023 full-year results saw ad impressions across the family rise by 28% year-over-year, while the average price per advert dropped by 9%. Accordingly, revenue rose by 1% to $134.9 billion. CEO Mark Zuckerberg enthuses that ‘our community and business continue to grow. We've made a lot of progress on our vision for advancing AI and the metaverse.’ A common theme among analysts for 2024 is that the company needs a new catalyst to sustain further gains. But the next catalyst could well come externally — with US politicians considering a ban on competitor TikTok unless parent ByteDance sells the app to a non-Chinese company. Market capitalisation: $1.26 trillion This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Meta’s share price plunged as much as 16% in post-market trading, following the release of its 1Q 2024 results. Source: Getty Shares Price Share price Meta Platforms Revenue Artificial intelligence Written by: Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore Publication date: Thursday 25 April 2024 03:51 Meta’s share price plunged post-results Meta’s share price plunged as much as 16% in post-market trading, following the release of its 1Q 2024 results. If this is followed through in the US session, this will be the largest percentage drop for the company’s share price since October 2022 (-24.6%). Meta’s results have a negative knock-on impact on the share prices of other big tech as well. Alphabet and Amazon are down close to 3% after-market, while Microsoft and Nvidia are down close to 2%. Source: Refinitiv Meta had a stellar 1Q, with a beat in both top and bottom-line. Revenue was 1% higher than consensus at $36.46 billion, up 27% year-on-year. This is the highest year-on-year (YoY) growth since 3Q 2021. Earnings per share (EPS) has beaten expectations by 9.8%, coming in at $4.71 and up more than two-fold from the $2.20 a year ago. Net profit margin was above estimate too, coming in at 33.9% versus the 31.1% consensus. Its other operating metrics have been encouraging as well. Average price per ad increased 6% YoY, ad impressions were up 20% YoY, while family daily active people (DAP) increased 7% YoY. Lacklustre revenue guidance overshadows stellar 1Q 2024 performance With the 40% run-up in its share price year-to-date, expectations are in place for the company to outperform on all fronts, leaving little room for error. It seems hard to find fault with the current set of results, but market participants were expecting more from Meta in terms of its forward sales outlook. The company guided for 2Q 2024 total revenue to be in the range of $36.5-39 billion, with the midpoint of the revenue outlook ($37.8 billion) falling below the $38.3 billion market consensus. There may be some concerns as to whether we have already seen the peak in growth momentum, with year-on-year revenue growth to potentially fall to 18.1% in 2Q 2024 from the current 27.3%. Huge cost increases put market participants off as well Given the ongoing artificial intelligence (AI) race among the big tech, Meta has been under pressure to keep up on its AI capabilities in order to fend off competition as well. The company is anticipating a $5 billion cost increase from its AI infrastructure investments for 2024 and expects capital expenditures to continue to increase next year. "We anticipate our full-year 2024 capital expenditures will be in the range of $35-40 billion, increased from our prior range of $30-37 billion." This will be a new record high for the company’s capital expenditure, but there may be some reservations on whether the huge amount will pay off. Having invested heavily in the metaverse since the end of 2020, its metaverse-oriented Reality Labs division is still faced with growing losses ($3.85 billion operating loss in 1Q 2024). This may lead to questions on whether it will be another expensive long-term bet this time round. Technical analysis: Meta’s share price unwind all of its past two months’ gains pre-market Failure to meet the sky-high market expectations for its results has prompted a 16% plunge in its share price pre-market, effectively unwinding all of its gains over the past two months. As such, an attempt for its daily relative strength index (RSI) to revert back above its key 50 level has also failed to materialise, which may keep the trend on a downward bias in the near term. The hefty fall also marked a dip in share price below its daily Ichimoku Cloud support for the first time since October 2023. There may be some expectations on whether the 16% plunge is overdone, given a stellar set of 1Q 2024 numbers, which may potentially catch the attention of some dip buyers. Buyers will have to face the arduous task of potentially pushing above the US$436.00 level (the lower band of the Ichimoku Cloud) to signal some control. Immediate support may be found at the key US$400.00 level, with any failure to hold the line potentially paving the way for a retest of the US$360.00 level next. Source: IG charts This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Facebook owner Meta Platforms saw its shares down heavily in extended trade after revenue forecasts disappointed. Some analysts are also now questioning the staggering amounts of money Meta is investing in artificial intelligence. Written by: Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London Publication date: Thursday 25 April 2024 10:28 Earnings per share came in at $4.71, comfortably above estimates of $4.32 and revenues up 27% year-on-year, at $36.46bln, above the forecasts of $36.16bln. That was the fastest rate of revenue expansion for any quarter since 2021. However, shares have quite clearly been priced for perfection as the outlook, however strong it is, quite clearly disappointed the market. Q2 revenue is expected at $36.5 to $39bln with the midpoint at $37.75bln, which would represent 18% year-over-year growth, but below analysts' average estimates of $38.3bln. However, the company is also expected to invest between $30-37bln into AI, possibly as much as $40bln, which some said was too much given current engagement. (AI Video Summary) Meta Meta Platforms, the parent company of Facebook, experienced a significant stock drop post-market following its quarterly earnings report, despite beating earnings expectations with a share price of $4.71 against a forecast of $4.32, and posting revenues of $36.46 billion. Meta's aggressive investment in AI technology This drop was attributed to concerns over its aggressive investment in AI technology, with spending on AI expected to be between $30 to $40 billion. Despite initial investor trepidation, there's notable buying interest in the stock at the lower prices, with 87% of clients holding long positions. The heavy investment in AI technology continues to spark debate among investors regarding the company’s future direction. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Despite ECB rate cut forecasts, the Euro climbs against the USD and GBP. US economic data could influence this uptrend. Source: Getty Forex Shares Euro Pound sterling EUR/GBP EUR/USD Written by: Nick Cawley | Analyst, DailyFX, London Publication date: Thursday 25 April 2024 06:37 The euro has gained against the US dollar and the British pound recently, even as markets anticipate a European Central Bank rate cut in June. However, any weakness in the US dollar could be temporary, as upcoming US Q1 GDP and core PCE data may support the view of sustained higher US interest rates. The daily EUR/USD chart shows the pair trading on either side of 1.0700 after rebounding from 1.0600 last week. The April 16th multi-month low coincided with a heavily oversold CCI reading which is now being erased. All three simple moving averages are above the spot price and in a negative pattern, while the pair has posted two major lower highs and lower lows since the end of last year. The next level of resistance is seen at 1.0787, while a confirmed break of 1.0600 will bring 1.0561 and 1.0448 into play. EUR/USD daily price chart Source: TradingView EUR/USD sentiment analysis: traders build net-shorts, prices may still fall Retail trader data shows 59.30% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.46 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 3.54% lower than yesterday and 16.77% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 20.90% higher than yesterday and 35.35% higher than last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long. EUR/GBP jumped last week after Bank of England (BoE) commentary that UK inflation is falling towards target. The BoE rate cut expectations were brought forward, weakening sterling against a range of currencies. EUR/GBP hit a multi-month high but partially retraced the move yesterday after the CCI indicator flashed a heavily overbought reading. In the short term, the recent double high around 0.8645 should act as resistance if the 200-day simple moving average is broken. The 0.8550 is currently guarded by both the 20- and 50-day SMAS. EUR/GBP: traders cut net-shorts on the week, prices may fall According to the latest retail trader data, 51.62% of traders are net-long on EUR/GBP, with a long-to-short ratio of 1.07 to 1. The number of net-long traders has increased by 22.75% compared to yesterday but decreased by 26.67% from last week. Conversely, the number of net-short traders has decreased by 15.19% since yesterday but increased by 61.45% from last week. The contrarian view to crowd sentiment suggests that EUR/GBP prices may continue to fall, despite the current mixed trading bias. EUR/GBP daily price chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Australia's CPI exceeded expectations at 3.5%, suggesting the RBA might keep rates steady, pushing AUD/USD up amid risk-on sentiment and ahead of US data. AUD/NZD shows bullish potential above key supports. Source: Getty Forex Market sentiment Inflation United States dollar AUD/NZD AUD/USD Written by: Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg Publication date: Thursday 25 April 2024 07:15 Australian inflation eases less than anticipated in Q1 Monthly, quarterly and yearly inflation measures showed disappointing progress towards the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target. The monthly CPI indicator for May rose to 3.5% versus the prior 3.4% to round off a disappointing quarter where the first three months of the year revealed a rise of 1%, trumping the 0.8% estimate and prior marker of 0.6%. Source: DailyFX Generally higher service cost pressures in the first quarter have made a notable contribution to the stubborn inflation data – something the RBA will most likely continue to warn against. The local interest rate is expected to remain higher for longer in part due to the sluggish inflation data, but also due to the labour market remaining tight. A strong labour market facilitates spending and consumption, preventing prices from declining at a desired pace. Markets now foresee no movement on the rate front this year with implied basis point moves all in positive territory for the remainder of the year. This is of course likely to evolve as data comes in but for now, the chances of a rate cut this year appear unlikely. Implied basis point changes in 2024 for each remaining RBA meeting Source: Refinitiv AUD/USD continues to benefit from the return to risk assets After escalation threats between Israel and Iran appeared to die down, markets returned to assets like the S&P 500 and the ‘high beta’ aussie dollar. AUD/USD subsequently reversed after tagging the 0.6365 level – the September 2022 spike low and surpassed 0.6460 with ease. Upside momentum appears to have found intra-day resistance at a noteworthy area of confluence resistance – the intersection of the 50 and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The move could also be inspired by reports of Israel preparing to move on Hamas targets in Rafah, which could risks deflating the recent lift in risk sentiment. US GDP data tomorrow and PCE data on Friday still provide an opportunity for increased volatility and a potential USD comeback should both prints surprise to the upside, further reinforcing the higher for longer narrative that has reemerged. All things considered, AUD may be susceptible to a sifter end to the week. AUD/USD daily chart Source: TradingView AUD/NZD bullish continuation shows promise AUD/NZD entered into a period of consolidation as prices eased in the form of a bull flag pattern. After yesterday’s close, a bullish continuation appears on the cards for the pair despite today’s intraday pullback from the daily high. A move below 1.0885 suggests a failure of the bullish continuation but as long as prices hold above this marker, the longer-term bullish bias and the prospect of a bullish continuation remains constructive. One thing to keep in mind is the risk of a shorter-term pullback as the RSI approaches overbought once more. Upside target appears at 1.1052 (June 2023 high) and 1.0885 to the downside. AUD/NZD daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

The yen trades at 34-year lows versus the US dollar as the Bank of Japan kicks off its two-day monetary policy meeting. USD/JPY reached the June 1990 peak at ¥155.56 while EUR/JPY is fast approaching the October 2007 high at ¥167.74. Asian stocks were mixed and a lower open is expected for European stock markets following disappointing after-hours Q1 US earnings by the likes of Meta Platforms which dropped by 15%. In the US preliminary Q1 GDP, initial jobless claims and pending home sales are on the agenda while in Europe German Bundesbank President Nagel will speak at 4:15pm ahead of Friday's US PCE inflation data release.

Rallies in FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow have further to go Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and Dow as investors pile back in to global stock markets. Source: Getty Images Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Publication date: Wednesday 24 April 2024 13:48 FTSE 100 hits yet another record high A weaker pound sterling and foreign investor buying of the undervalued UK blue chip index propelled the FTSE 100 to a record high on Monday. The pound sterling bouncing back following hawkish comments by BoE chief economist Huw Pill has not put a spanner in the works with the FTSE 100 hitting yet another record high and remaining on track for its fourth straight day of gains. Minor support sits between the early-to-mid-April highs at 8,046 to 8,017. Medium-term the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the March-to-June 2020 advance, projected higher from the October 2020 low, around the 8300 mark represents a possible upside target. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 regains lost ground The DAX 40’s strong rally off last week’s 17,400 low has gained traction and is trying to overcome last week’s high at 18,195. If overcome on a daily chart closing basis, the 8 April high at 18,329 will be in focus, together with the 4 April high at 18,429. Minor support can be spotted around the 5 April low at 18,085 and around the psychological 18,000 level. Source: ProRealTime Dow sees strong three straight day rally Since last week the Dow Jones Industrial Average regained lost ground and has risen by around 3% with the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 38,783 representing the next upside target, together with the 10 April high at 39,029. Potential slips may find support around the 38,452 March low and further down, around the late February 38,336 low. Source: ProRealTime

Gold price drifts down, while WTI crude price and natural gas price move higher Commodities recovered overnight, as natural gas prices rallied to their highest level since February, while oil prices surged off Tuesday’s low. Meanwhile, the gold price drifts downwards. Source: Getty Images Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Wednesday 24 April 2024 13:33 Gold struggles to hold its ground Gold prices found buyers yesterday as it dipped below $2300, briefly hitting a three-week low. Early trading this morning has seen a cautiously-positive start, and further gains above $2350 may suggest that a low is in place. Sellers will look for a reversal back below $2300 in order to open the door towards the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Source: ProRealTime WTI forms a higher low? Oil prices staged an impressive bounce off the 50-day SMA on Tuesday, having spent the previous three sessions forming a short-term low above $81. A higher low looks to be in place for the time being, which then opens the way back to the peak from early April above $87. A fresh bearish view would require a reversal back to $81, and then a close below the lows of last week. Source: ProRealTime Natural Gas rallies to three-month high Natural gas has finally enjoyed a strong rally over the week so far, moving above 2000 at last and returning to the 100-day SMA for the first time since the beginning of the year. Of course, all this merely results in a substantially lower high relative to January, though the move above the February high at 2068 does help to bolster a short-term bullish view. The 2200 low from December becomes the next target. Meanwhile, sellers will be looking for a reversal back below the February high to suggest that a new leg lower has begun. Source: ProRealTime

Tesla, the first of the Magnificent 7 to report earnings, surged after it announced plans to build more affordable electric vehicles (EV). Source: Getty Images Shares Tesla, Inc. Electric vehicle Vehicle Share price Technical analysis Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Publication date: Wednesday 24 April 2024 09:55 Tesla share price surges after Q1 results Tesla, the first of the Magnificent 7 to report earnings, surged after it announced plans to build more affordable electric vehicles (EV). New affordable model plans offset earnings miss Tesla shares surged in after-hours trading as the electric vehicle maker announced plans to accelerate the launch of new affordable EV models, despite reporting first quarter (Q1) earnings that missed Wall Street estimates. For the Q1 of 2024, Tesla reported revenue of $21.3 billion, down 9% year-over-year, attributed to reduced vehicle average selling prices and a decline in deliveries. Analysts had expected revenue of $22.15 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.45, slightly below the consensus estimate of $0.46. Investors cheer plans for cheaper models In a statement accompanying its Q1 2024 earnings report, Tesla said it plans to launch new models, including more affordable EVs, ahead of its previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025. "These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up," the company stated. Cost reduction plans trimmed Tesla acknowledged that this accelerated timeline "may result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times." Gross margins hit by price cuts Gross margins at Tesla were 17.4% in Q1, down from 19.3% a year ago, reflecting the impact of the company's repeated price cuts on its vehicles to boost demand. Tesla stock price: technical analysis Despite the earnings miss, Tesla shares surged 6.3% to around $153 in after-hours trading following the release of its Q1 report and new EV model launch plans with these now showing a pre-market price of around $164. Source: Google Finance Tesla had seen its stock price fall more than 43% so far in 2024 amid concerns about pricing pressure and layoffs prior to the Q1 report. Tesla weekly candlestick chart Source: TradingView For the July 2023 to April 2024 downtrend to be questioned, a bullish reversal would need to take the Tesla share price to above its late-March high at $184.25 on a weekly chart closing basis. While this is not the case, the Tesla share price remains in a downtrend as a series of lower highs and lows can be made out on the weekly chart. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Surprising US PMI drops contrast with Europe’s gains in services, pushing EUR/USD higher as markets recalibrate economic outlooks and monetary policy expectations. Source: Getty Forex Euro Pound sterling European Union Inflation EUR/USD Written by: Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg Publication date: Wednesday 24 April 2024 07:28 Flash PMI data provides unflattering US outlook, Europe improves German and EU manufacturing remains depressed but encouraging rises in flash services PMI results suggest improvement in Europe. UK manufacturing slumped well into contraction, but also benefitted from another rise on the services front. It was the US that provided the most surprising numbers, witnessing a decline in services PMI and a drop into contractionary territory for manufacturing – weighing on the dollar. EUR/USD rises after us PMI shock EUR/USD responded to lackluster flash PMI data in the US by clawing back recent losses. The euro attempts to surpass the 1.0700 level after recovering from oversold territory around the swing low of 1.0600. The pair has maintained the longer-term downtrend reflective of the diverging monetary policy stances adopted by the ECB and the Fed. A strong labour market, robust growth and resurgent inflation has forced the Fed to delay its plans to cut interest rates which has strengthened the dollar against G7 currencies. The surprising US PMI data suggests the economy may not be as strong as initially anticipated and some frailties may be creeping in. However, it will take a lot more than one flash data point to reverse the narrative. If bulls take control from here, 1.07645 becomes the next upside level of interest followed by 1.0800 where the 200 SMA resides. On the downside, 1.06437 and 1.0600 remain support levels of interest if the longer-term trend is to continue. EUR/USD daily chart Source: TradingView EUR/GBP surrenders recent gains EUR/GBP rose uncharacteristically on Friday when risks of a broader conflict between Israel and Iran subsided. In addition, the Bank of England’s(BoE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden stated that he sees inflation falling sharply towards target in the coming months, sending a dovish signal to the market. Today the BoE’s chief Economist Huw Pill tried to walk back such sentiment, stressing that the bank needs to maintain restrictiveness in its policy stance. He did however, echo Ramsden’s remarks by saying the committee is seeing signs of a downward shift in the persistent component of the inflation dynamic. EUR/GBP appears to have found resistance around 0.8625 and has traded lower after the PMI data, even heading lower than the 200 SMA. A return to former channel resistance is potentially on the cards at 0.8578. Prices settled into the trading range as central bankers mulled incoming data and the prospect of a first rate cut appeared a fair distance away. Longer-term, the ECB is on track to cut rates in June, meaning sterling will extend its interest rate superiority and is likely to see the pair test familiar levels of support. EUR/GBP daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Asian stocks, led by tech shares, rallied sharply on Wednesday as investors shifted focus to upcoming earnings from major US tech companies like Meta, Alphabet and Microsoft. Tesla's shares surged 12.5% after-hours as it promised new electric vehicle models, despite missing Q1 expectations. This boosted sentiment in Asia's tech sector. The Japanese yen remained depressed near 34-year lows against the US dollar around 154.85, keeping traders wary of potential intervention by Japanese authorities. Broad gains were seen across Asian markets like Taiwan, South Korea, Japan's Nikkei and the MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index. China and Hong Kong stocks were mixed. The risk-on rally is expected to extend to Europe with futures pointing to a higher open. Apart from tech earnings, markets are also eyeing US GDP and core PCE inflation data this week for clues on Fed rate path. US Treasury yields and the dollar index eased after data showed a cooling in US business activity and inflation pressures in April. The Australian dollar jumped on hotter-than-expected inflation data, prompting removal of rate cut bets for this year. Oil prices were largely flat as geopolitical tensions offset economic concerns.

Dow, Nasdaq 100 and Nikkei 225 make headway off recent lows The selling in indices has stopped for now, with major markets higher after finding at least a short-term low last week. Source: Getty Images Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London Publication date: Tuesday 23 April 2024 13:38 Dow recovery goes on The index continues its recovery from the lows of last week, and Monday’s session saw it move back above the 100-day simple moving average. The flood of major earnings over the coming two weeks may mean that the index experiences a more volatile period, even if it does continue to rebound. Further gains target 39,000, which provided some resistance earlier in the month, and then on to 40,000. A close back below 38,000 could suggest the price will head back towards 37,500, retesting last week’s low. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 braces for big tech earnings The pullback in the index paused yesterday, as the price reached 17,000. A small gain helped to suggest that a low may be forming. The big tech earnings that dominate this week and next may mean that the index struggles in the short-term, though with the percentage of index members below their 20-day SMA hitting 5% last week a short-term bounce still seems likely. A close above 17,415 and the 100-day SMA helps to build a short-term bullish view. Sellers will want to see a close back below 17,000, which could then open the way to the January low at 16,177. Source: ProRealTime Nikkei 225 returns to 100-day SMA As with other indices, the Nikkei 225 has seen its pullback pause over the past three sessions. Buyers appeared last week when the index dropped below 37,000, and the index then pushed back to the 100-day SMA. A close above the 100-day SMA would add strength to the bullish view, while the price then targets the early April highs around 39,860. 37,000 continues to hold as support for now, so a break below here is needed to put the bearish view back on track. Source: ProRealTime

While the price of crude oil stabilises, gold and silver prices fall sharply De-escalation in the Middle East leads to risk on sentiment and flows out of save haven commodities such as precious metals. Source: Getty Images Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London Publication date: Tuesday 23 April 2024 13:23 Brent crude oil price recovers slightly from near one-month low The Brent crude oil price’s sharp decline from its 91.67 mid-April high to Monday’s 85.21 near one-month low amid de-escalation in the Middle East has been followed by a minor bounce which so far remains tepid and below the 87.11 mid-March high, though. Were 85.21 to give way, the key mid-November-to-early March previous resistance area, now because of inverse polarity a support zone, at 84.58 to 83.79 would probably be tested. Source: ProRealTime Gold price plunges to three-week low as geopolitical tensions ease Spot gold is on track for its second straight day of losses, having so far fallen by around 5% from its mid-April $2,431 per troy ounce record high, as tensions in the Middle East ease. A potential downside target is seen at the 5 April low at $2,268. If fallen through, a more significant correction might take the precious metal price to its 20 March $2,223 high. Minor resistance sits between its mid-April low and Tuesday’s intraday high at $2,335. Further minor resistance can be spotted at the 17 April $2,354 low. Source: ProRealTime Silver price comes off its three-year high The spot silver price is seen coming off its $29.79 per troy ounce mid-April high, a level last traded in February 2021, towards its 5 April low and the February-to-April uptrend line at $26.29 to $26.16 as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East abate. Another potential downside target is the 21 March high at $25.77. Minor resistance above Tuesday’s intraday high at $27.36 can be seen at the 10 April low at $27.53. Source: ProRealTime