Jump to content

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Breaks Technical Barrier, Upside for AUD/CHF


Recommended Posts

AUDUSD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF ANALYSIS & NEWS

  • AUD Breakout As Resistance is Cleared
  • AUD/CHF Has Catching Up to Do
  • AU Jobs and US CPI In Focus

AUD/USD: Australian Dollar - US Dollar Rate, Chart & News

On Friday, we discussed the potential for the Australian Dollar to break out and now that pivotal resistance (0.7300-20) has been broken, AUD bulls can take some comfort. Overnight, sizeable gains in iron ore underpinned the gains in Aussie, while Sydney emerging from a near four-month lockdown has helped improve the mood music. To add to this, given that speculators continue to hold a large short position in Aussie, risks are geared towards a short squeeze. On the tech side, having broken above resistance, a close above 0.7320 will be key.

AUD/USD Chart: Daily Time Frame

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Breaks Technical Barrier, Upside for AUD/CHF

Source: Refinitv

THE SWISS FRANC REMAINS RESILIENT

Elsewhere, as global bond yields continue to tick higher, AUD/JPY soared to a three month high, however, what is slightly bemusing is the more muted gains in AUD/CHF. Resistance at 0.6800 continues to hold for now, although, as risks remain tilted to the upside on global bond yields, I favour further upside in AUD/CHF. That said, the concern for the cross would be a deterioration across equity markets.

AUD/JPY vs AUD/CHF

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Breaks Technical Barrier, Upside for AUD/CHF

Source: Refinitiv

Looking ahead, domestic data in the form of the Australian jobs reports will be in focus for Aussie traders, while the main highlight will be the US CPI report. In turn, given the markets increasing concern over stagflation risks a softer report will see the USD underperform across the board.

DailyFX Calendar

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Breaks Technical Barrier, Upside for AUD/CHF

Source: DailyFX

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT SHIFTS SIGNAL MIXED AUD/USD OUTLOOK

Data shows 52.36% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.10 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.93% higher than yesterday and 0.08% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.45% higher than yesterday and 0.09% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall.

Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed AUD/USD trading bias.

 

By Justin McQueen, Strategist, 11th October 2021. DailyFX

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      19,524
    • Total Posts
      86,911
    • Total Members
      68,776
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Stane
    Joined 12/08/22 08:37
  • Posts

    • KLA Corp., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis KLA Corp.,(KLAC:NASDAQ): Daily Chart, August 12, 2022,  KLACStock Market Analysis:Looking for further continuation lower into wave c) of {ii}. Wave (b) may not be finished, however I am still looking for further downside after the initial move up we had in a five wave manner. KLAC Elliott Wave count:  Wave c) of {ii}. KLACTrading Strategy: wait for the end of wave {ii} to start building long positions to target ATH. KLAC Technical Indicators:We are above all EMAs which suggests we have resumed the uptrend. We could find support off the 200 EMA. TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta       KLACorp.,KLAC: 4-hour Chart, August 12 2022,  KLA Corp., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis KLAC Stock Market Analysis: Looking for completion of wave (b) to then resume downside into wave c) which could eveb be traded on short timeframes. KLACElliott Wave count:  Wave c of (b). KLAC Technical Indicators: We are facing resistance off the 20 EMA which could be a sign wave (b) is completed or nearly completed. KLACTrading Strategy: You could either look for shorts into wave c) or/and wait for a larger swing once wave {ii} is finished and target he upside with wave {iii}.
    • Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge 3-Daily Chart, 12 August 2022, Monero(XMRUSD) XMRUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave I Direction Next higher Degrees: Wave C of Zigzag Details: The sub-wave of the first wave is about to end. Watch out for the reverse in Wave Cancel invalid Level: Monero(XMRUSD) Trading Strategy: The entry price is entering the last wave of the first wave. And it is going up to test resistance at MA50, waiting for a reversal in the second wave to enter the trend again. Monero(XMRUSD) Indicators: MACD and MACD Histogram have a reversal signal in an uptrend. TradingLounge Analyst: Kittiampon Somboonsod Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge 4H Chart, 12 August 2022, Monero(XMRUSD) XMRUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave ((4)) Direction Next higher Degrees: wave I of C Details: Entering the fifth wave. Watch out for the reverse Wave Cancel invalid Level: Monero(XMRUSD) Trading Strategy: The short-term rise of the fifth wave After the fourth wave The level of the end of the triangle pattern is at The end of wave D, but if the price descends below the end of wave E, it is possible that the fifth wave may end at wave B. Monero(XMRUSD) Technical Indicators: MACD and MACD Histogram continue in the same direction.
    • Hi @ArturG, I added a response on the thread you shared. Effectively, the rule apply to UK clients. You can find the relevant text here:https://www.legislation.gov.uk/eur/2014/1286/body I hope that it helps ! All the best - Arvin
×
×
  • Create New...