Jump to content

DXY Dollar Index Slips on Treasury Yield Dip and Mixed Data in Asia. Can USD Get a Grip?


Recommended Posts

US DOLLAR, DXY, TREASURY YIELDS, JAPAN, CHINA, RBA - TALKING POINTS:

  • The US Dollar struggled to hold last week’s gains in Asian trade today.
  • Economic data was mixed with Japan missing and China beating projections.
  • US yields continue to dominate after CPI last week. Will USD get a kick-along?

DXY Dollar Index Slips on Treasury Yield Dip and Mixed Data in Asia. Can  USD Get

The US Dollar was softer in Asia today as Treasury yields pulled back from last week’s peak.

US 5-year Treasury yield went to 1.21% in Asia after trading at 1.27% near the end of last week.

The US Dollar index (DXY) was down around 0.2% after last week’s run up due to the whopping US CPI overshoot lifting Treasury yields. USD was weakest against the AUD and CHF today. USD/JPY was steady due to weak Japanese data.

Japanese seasonally adjusted GDP came out below expectations at -0.8% for the third quarter and -3.0% annualised against forecasts of -0.2% and -0.7% respectively. Later in the day, industrial production figures were released and printed at -5.4% for the month of September and -2.3% year on year.

Supply chain impacts appear to be taking a toll. In the wash-up, the Yen was a bit weaker, JGBs rallied and Japanese stocks were up a touch.

Hong Kong and Chinese equities were weaker despite some strong data. Property developers are in focus as they remain under stress. Many companies are scrambling to raise cash and consequently have been selling assets and/or raising capital to repair their balance sheets. This is weakening their share price and in turn, dragging the indices lower.

Chinese retail sales were up 4.9% for the year to the end of October against anticipation of 3.7%. Industrial production was also a beat coming in at 3.5% versus 3.0% expected.

The Australian Dollar was firmer on the data and Aussie bonds were up as yields dipped. The ASX 200 posted a small gain and crude oil drifted down.

This is ahead of RBA Governor Phillip Lowe speaking tomorrow on recent trends in inflation. The RBA have an exemplary track record on inflation-targeting. Given the eye-popping price increases happening around the globe, markets will be keen to hear what he has to say.

Later today in the US, the Empire manufacturing index reporting on sector conditions in New York state will be out. A number of ECB and BOE members will be testifying to their respective parliaments.

US President Joe Biden will also be meeting his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping in a virtual summit. Expectations for anything meaningful to eventuate are low as there is no scheduled joint statement at the conclave’s conclusion.

 
USD DOLLAR (DXY) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The US Dollar, as represented by the DXY US Dollar Index, remains in an ascending channel.

It made a new high for the year last week as it stretched outside the upper band of the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) based Bollinger Band. A close inside the band today could indicate some bearishness emerging.

If there is a selloff, near-by support might be at the pivot points of 94.742 and 94.62. From there, further support may lie at the previous lows of 93.818, 93.278 and 91.947.

Possible resistance could be at the upper bound of the ascending channel, currently dissecting at 96.00.

US DOLLAR DXY CHART

Chart created in TradingView

 

Can USD Get a Grip? What are your views and thoughts?

 

Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for DailyFX.com. 15th November 2021.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Wheat Elliott Wave Analysis Function - Trend Mode - Trend Structure -Impulse wave Position - Wave A of (B) Direction - Wave A of (B) is still in play Details -  Wheat daily and H4 have been adjusted due to how fast and deep decline from 720’4 has emerged. The long-term forecast on the daily chart shows that the surge to 720’4 is part of the impulse wave from March 2022. We are now in wave (5) which is expected to emerge into a 3-wave structure. Price now appears to be in wave A after which it will correct upside for B before returning downside. Overview: Since late May, grain prices have been falling sharply, with Wheat shedding over 20% since May 28th, 2024. This decline is about to erase the gains made from mid-April to late May. The nearly one-month sell-off adds to the long-term decline from March 2022, when Wheat traded at 1364’4. Currently trading at 571’4, Wheat is likely to fall further toward 500 in the coming weeks.   Daily Chart Analysis: The decline from March 2022 is forming a bearish impulse wave structure in the primary degree. The 5th wave is completing a diagonal structure, which has been the most time-consuming among the actionary waves, lasting nearly 21 months. The price is currently in wave (5) of 5 (circled), which will likely evolve into a 3-wave structure targeting the 500 major psychological level.   H4 Chart Analysis: The H4 chart shows the sub-waves of wave (5), which is now close to completing its first leg - wave A of (5). A corrective bounce is expected to follow for wave B before the price turns downside for wave C of (5) toward 500, provided the 720’4 pivot is not breached. Wheat and other grains are overwhelmingly bearish and may continue in this direction for the next several weeks before major bullish corrections begin.   In conclusion, Wheat prices remain bearish with potential for further declines, targeting the 500 psychological level, contingent on the completion of the current corrective wave B and the subsequent wave C of (5). Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • Dear @Naren12166, Thank you for the post. Please note that we don't have a definite date but the product team is in the testing phase, a few countries should have Trading View soon. Thanks, KoketsoIG
    • TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Daily Chart, Texas Instruments Inc., (TXN) Daily Chart TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Counter Trend MODE: Corrective STRUCTURE: Triangle POSITION: Wave {iv}. DIRECTION: Bottom in wave {iv}.   DETAILS: Looking for a triangle in wave {iv} of 3 as we have found resistance on TL2 at 200$.     TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4Hr Chart, Texas Instruments Inc., ( TXN) 4Hr Chart TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Counter Trend MODE: Corrective STRUCTURE: Triangle POSITION: Wave (e) of {iv}. DIRECTION: Bottom in (e).   DETAILS: Looking for wave (e) to be near completion to then resume higher and find support on top of 200$.   Welcome to our latest Elliott Wave analysis for Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN). This analysis provides an in-depth look at TXN's price movements using the Elliott Wave Theory, helping traders identify potential opportunities based on current trends and market structure. We will cover insights from both the daily and 4-hour charts to offer a comprehensive perspective on TXN's market behavior.   * TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Daily Chart* In our Elliott Wave analysis of Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN), we observe a counter-trend corrective pattern characterized by a triangle structure. TXN is currently positioned in wave {iv} of 3, suggesting a bottoming process in wave {iv}. The recent price action indicates that TXN has encountered resistance around the TL2 trendline at $200. This resistance could imply the formation of a triangle in wave {iv}, setting the stage for a potential resumption of the upward trend once the triangle completes. Traders should monitor the $200 level for signs of a breakout or further consolidation within the triangle.   *TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4Hr Chart* On the 4-hour chart, TXN is following a counter-trend corrective mode within a triangle structure, specifically in wave (e) of {iv}. The current analysis suggests that wave (e) is nearing completion, which could signal the end of the triangle and the beginning of a move higher. The completion of wave (e) should ideally find support above the $200 level, aligning with the daily chart's indication of a possible upward resumption post-triangle. Traders should watch for the termination of wave (e) and the subsequent price action to confirm a bullish continuation.   Technical Analyst : Alessio Barretta Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
×
×
  • Create New...
us