Jump to content

Sterling set for best week vs euro since first UK lockdown


Recommended Posts

image.png

By Joice Alves, 19th November 2021. Investing.com

LONDON (Reuters) - Sterling edged up versus the euro on Friday and was set for its best week versus the single currency since Britain's first lockdown in March 2020, after retail sales data fuelled bets the Bank of England will raise interest rates in December.

Sterling rose 0.2% to 84.10 pence versus the euro at 0940 GMT after official data showed British retail sales rose by 0.8% last month, a bigger rise than expected.

Economic data this week, including UK inflation and job numbers, had already bolstered expectations the BoE is ready to raise interest rates, after Governor Andrew Bailey surprised the market by keeping them on hold at its November policy meeting.

The pound climbed versus the euro to pre-pandemic levels this week; versus the dollar, it touched an 11-month high. It edged 0.5% lower at $1.3436 as the greenback strengthened on Friday.

"October retail sales are the latest piece of evidence to support a BoE rate hike," ING told clients, adding that the focus now will be on the speech from BoE chief economist Huw Pill due later in the day.

"He was one of the first to support tightening discussions advanced by Governor Bailey and he'll have more ammunition now," ING said.

The BoE is expected to become the first major central bank to raise rates since the start of the pandemic to try to contain inflation that hit a 10-year high as household energy bills rocket.

Easing some of the BoE's concerns about the risks of tightening monetary policy, data showed Britain's job market withstood the end of the government's furlough scheme.

Capping sterling's rise, worries have mounted that disagreements between Britain and the European Union could trigger trade disruptions, hitting the British economy, which is already lagging other rich nations.

 

Britain left the EU last year but has put off implementing some of the border checks between its province of Northern Ireland and EU member Ireland that the bloc says are required under their divorce deal.

On Friday, the government's spending watchdog said Britain had been unprepared for a crisis like COVID-19 and was distracted by Brexit.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Can't believe I'm asking this after all my 35 years of being alive, but here I am - please give me some nice ideas for an appropriate gift you'd give a new girlfriend after just 2 months of your relationship?  Asking this so as not to "overdo" it or go too far with something that's too intimate or personal or expensive - just something nice, useful, and romantic that doesn't go overboard. Thanks a lot!
    • The long adage “what a man can do, a woman can do even better” might have gained traction in the crypto space. Although most of the top influential people in the industry are men, their female counterparts are exhibiting finesse too; not many beat Gracy Chen in terms of deep-rooted knowledge, skill and her inspiring rise to the top. Since 2014, as a notable TV host, Ms Chen found her interest in the dynamic world of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency deepen through her interactions with some of the industry’s OGs. Her growing passion would soon drive her to invest in various crypto startups, including Bitkeep (now Bitget Wallet). In June 2022, she joined Bitget as its novel Managing Director (MD), and left a positive impact with her excellent managerial ability; contributing her part in Bitget’s success in the fiercely competitive cryptocurrency landscape. Some of her most remarkable achievements include co-leading the strategy that multiplied Bitget’s user base through high-profile partnership with footballing GOAT, Leo Messi, as well as the establishment of a robust global affiliate network. Her expertise, in-depth knowledge, efficiency over the years as Bitget MD have earned her the CEO position, succeeding Sandra Lou, who will be leaving the platform to chase her own business goals. From TV host to Bitget CEO, Gracy Chen’s story is a reminder that if you dream it, you can achieve it. You agree?
    • Following strong earnings and rising commodities, the FTSE and DAX consolidated near record highs. Dovish ECB and BoE signals, along with upcoming UK inflation data, could influence future rate cuts.   Source: Getty Images   Indices Commodities Inflation Core inflation DAX Technical analysis Written by: Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia   Publication date: Tuesday 21 May 2024 05:02 After a record-breaking rally, fuelled by strong corporate earnings, rising commodities and expectations of rate cuts, the FTSE and the DAX spent last week consolidating near record highs. While sticky inflation is expected to see the Federal Reserve keep rates higher for longer, underlying inflation in the UK and in Europe has made good progress towards target. In response, the ECB and the BoE have sounded more dovish. The expectation is that they will cut rates once or perhaps twice before the Federal Reserve starts its rate-cutting cycle in September. Whether the BoE is able to cut rates at its next meeting on 20 June, will depend to a large degree on this week's inflation report for April, which is previewed below. UK inflation data preview Date: Wednesday, 22 May at 4.00pm AEST In March, the headline annual inflation rate in the UK fell to 3.2% YoY from 3.4% prior, its lowest rate since September 2021. The annual core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, dropped to 4.2%, the lowest since December 2021. Inflation's steady progress toward the BoE's target has significantly contributed to the bank's dovish tilt. The rates market is now 50% priced for a 25 basis points (bp) BoE rate cut in June, with a full 25bp rate cut expected by August. The market's preliminary expectation for this month (April) is for headline inflation to ease to 2.3% YoY and for core inflation to fall to 3.6%. If correct, this should increase the chances of a 25bp BoE rate cut in June. UK CPI data   Source: TradingEconomics DAX technical analysis The rally from the mid-April 17,626 low is viewed as the final leg (Wave V) of an impulsive rally from the October 2023, 14,630 low. (Within Elliott Wave theory, a Wave V is usually the final leg of an impulse move before a correction unfolds.) This wave count is supported by bearish divergence in the RSI indicator, showing that new price highs are not confirmed by new RSI highs. A break below short-term support at 18,567, stemming from the April high, would indicate that the rally has run its course and a pullback has commenced. However, before the pullback begins, the DAX may yet extend its gains into the 19,000/19,200 area. DAX daily chart   Source: TradingView FTSE technical analysis Since mid-March, we maintained a bullish stance on the FTSE, capturing its blistering run higher. However, we shifted to a more neutral bias ahead of the BoE meeting on May 9th, anticipating a pullback to rebuy. Although a pullback has yet to develop, the FTSE's overbought readings via the RSI indicator suggest a pullback may not be far away. FTSE daily chart   Source: TradingView Source: Tradingview. The figures stated are as of 21 May, 2024. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.     This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
×
×
  • Create New...
us