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What are your predictions for non-farm payrolls?


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Today, Friday 3rd December 2021 economic event will revolve around the U.S. non-farm payroll figures which are expected at 13:30 pm London time.  We will post trade ideas and articles surrounding the data release, but we’re curious what IG Community members are thinking.

 

  • What is your NFP prediction?
  • Why is this your prediction?
  • How will you trade over the announcement?

 

What is Non-farm Payrolls?

NFP is a macro economic data release which shows the monthly change in employment for a single month, excluding the farming sector, for the United States.

The figure is released as part of the U.S employment report on the first Friday of the month and contains information on unemployment, job growth and payroll data, amongst other quantitative statistics.  The NFP figure is one of the most closely watched indicators relating to the employment sector and is considered an accurate reflection of job creation.

The Feds responsibility to keep employment within a healthy range means this figure could have a causal effect on interest rates, and by association the USD and wider economy. Generally speaking the higher the number the better it is for the economy, however a figure below consensus can still have a negative impact if it catches traders off guard.

 

How does NFP affect the markets?

Generally speaking a higher number shows economic strength and is followed by a bullish movement in the USD. Most traders look out for an addition of 100,000 jobs or more as a positive sign, whilst any less is a negative as it indicates a lack of growth.

Anything outside of consensus can catch traders off guard pushing them to look to additional data from the employment report such as unemployment or manufacturing payroll numbers. For example a smaller unemployment figure and high payroll would generally cause dollar strength.

 

All the best - MongiIG

 

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image.png

USD news event: 

Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 (UK Time) 3rd December 2021.

Previous: 531K

Estimate: 550K

Actual: TBA at 13:30 (UK Time)

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

US Unemployment Rate:

What is it?

This is a report on the percentage of people registered as unemployed in the US, calculated by dividing the number of employed by the total work force. Unemployed individuals are defined as being those able and willing to work who have actively sought employment within the last four weeks. The total work force is calculated as the sum of all those employed and unemployed who are 16 years and over.

Why is it important?

The unemployment rate gives a good picture of the labour environment in the US, and therefore provides insight into production, consumption and earnings. A lower figure suggests increased expenditure from an overall greater amount of wages, which may lead to economic growth as well as inflationary pressures. High unemployment rates, on the other hand, imply economic weakness, lower consumer spending power, etc. Released by: Bureau of Labor and Statistics (Monthly)

US unemployment rate at 13:30 (UK Time) 3rd December 2021.

Previous: 4.6%

Estimate: 4.5%

Actual: TBA at 13:30 (UK Time)

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

NFP and US unemployment rate will be out 13:30 GMT, let us know if you’ll be trading and what results you’re hoping for. Who will be trading?

Due to expected volatility guaranteed stop distances may be widened.

 

All the best - MongiIG

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4 hours ago, MongiIG said:

image.png

USD news event: 

Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 (UK Time) 3rd December 2021.

Previous: 531K

Estimate: 550K

Actual: TBA at 13:30 (UK Time)

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

US Unemployment Rate:

What is it?

This is a report on the percentage of people registered as unemployed in the US, calculated by dividing the number of employed by the total work force. Unemployed individuals are defined as being those able and willing to work who have actively sought employment within the last four weeks. The total work force is calculated as the sum of all those employed and unemployed who are 16 years and over.

Why is it important?

The unemployment rate gives a good picture of the labour environment in the US, and therefore provides insight into production, consumption and earnings. A lower figure suggests increased expenditure from an overall greater amount of wages, which may lead to economic growth as well as inflationary pressures. High unemployment rates, on the other hand, imply economic weakness, lower consumer spending power, etc. Released by: Bureau of Labor and Statistics (Monthly)

US unemployment rate at 13:30 (UK Time) 3rd December 2021.

Previous: 4.6%

Estimate: 4.5%

Actual: TBA at 13:30 (UK Time)

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

NFP and US unemployment rate will be out 13:30 GMT, let us know if you’ll be trading and what results you’re hoping for. Who will be trading?

Due to expected volatility guaranteed stop distances may be widened.

 

All the best - MongiIG

Results:

image.png

USD news event: 

Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 (UK Time) 3rd December 2021.

Previous: 546K (revised)

Estimate: 550K

Actual: 210K

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

US unemployment rate at 13:30 (UK Time) 3rd December 2021.

Previous: 4.6%

Estimate: 4.5%

Actual: 4.2%

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

Share your thoughts and views if you traded the Non-Farm Payrolls and US unemployment rate event.

 

All the best - MongiIG

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image.png

What Is the NFP and How Do You Trade It 100% Risk Free?

The U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in November, before a new Covid threat created a scare that growth could slow into the winter, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 210,000 for the month, though the unemployment rate fell sharply to 4.2%, even though the labor force participation rate increased for the month to 61.8%, its highest level since March 2020.

Full article: CNBC

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  • 5 weeks later...

Trading the Non-Farm Payrolls: relevance, impact, tips and techniques

SUMMARY

Nonfarm payrolls is an employment report released monthly, usually on the first Friday of every month, and heavily affects the US dollar, the bond market and the stock market. Current Employment Statistics (CES) program from the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics, surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual work sites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls.

image.png

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USD news event: 

Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 (UK Time) 7th January 2022.

Previous: 210K

Estimate: 400K

Actual: TBA

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

US unemployment rate at 13:30 (UK Time) 7th January 2022.

Previous: 4.2%

Estimate: 4.1%

Actual: TBA

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

NFP and US unemployment rate will be out 13:30 GMT, let us know if you’ll be trading and what results you’re hoping for. Who will be trading?

Due to expected volatility guaranteed stop distances may be widened.

 

All the best - MongiIG

  • Thought provoking 1
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10 hours ago, RCtrader said:

I'd rather have the price move up and down as in being very volatile but closing the day candle at the opening. :)

Hi @RCtrader

Thanks for sharing. So you would not trade the NFP fundamental event as it is happening you would rather wait for the event to happen the volatility and wait for a daily candle close? Is this to get an overall trend direction bias for whatever instrument is affected by NFP that you will be trading on for the following week ?

All the best - MongiIG

  • Thanks 1
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What is NFP & Why Is It Important | Learn How to Trade the Non Farm Payroll Report

 

The non farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It represents the number of jobs added, excluding farm employees, government employees, private household employees and employees of nonprofit organizations. Learn how NFP releases can cause large movements in the forex market.

00:00 - Introduction

00:21- A breakdown of NFP

00:54 - Why is it important

01:26 - How to interpret NFP data

02:12 - NFP data & The US economy

03:13 - What do changes in the data mean

03:20 - Conclusion

 

All the best - MongiIG

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NFP: Non-Farm Payrolls Prints at +199k, Unemployment Rate 3.9%

NFP: Non-Farm Payrolls Prints at +199k, Unemployment Rate 3.9%

 

image.png

USD news event: 

Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 (UK Time) 7th January 2022.

Previous: 249K (revised)

Estimate: 400K

Actual: 199K

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

US unemployment rate at 13:30 (UK Time) 7th January 2022.

Previous: 4.2%

Estimate: 4.1%

Actual: 3.9%

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

 

Share your thoughts and views if you traded the Non-Farm Payrolls and US unemployment rate event.

 

All the best - MongiIG

Link to comment
10 hours ago, MongiIG said:

Hi @RCtrader

Thanks for sharing. So you would not trade the NFP fundamental event as it is happening you would rather wait for the event to happen the volatility and wait for a daily candle close? Is this to get an overall trend direction bias for whatever instrument is affected by NFP that you will be trading on for the following week ?

All the best - MongiIG

Well, I would trade any financial instrument prior the release of the NFP, but I would not do that during the release and after it. In my opinion, it's almost like gambling. Perhaps, one could enter the market an hour after the event, if the PA has taken a direction. But again, there is a level of uncertainty. 

  • Great! 1
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  • 4 weeks later...

NFP: Non-farm Payrolls Prints at 467k, USD in Focus After Going Oversold

Feb 4, 2022 by James Stanley, Senior Strategist. DailyFX

NFP, NON-FARM PAYROLLS, USD TALKING POINTS:

  • This morning brought the release of Non-farm Payrolls for the month of January.
  • Expectations were very low after the earlier-week ADP report showed a contraction of 307k versus an expectation for a gain of 201k.
  • The analysis contained in article relies on price action and chart formations. To learn more about price action or chart patterns, check out our DailyFX Education section.
NFP Friday - the result - Varchev Finance

This morning brings the release of Non-farm Payrolls out of the United States, and the bar is set incredibly low. This is a live article, meaning that it’ll be updated around the event, with each update denoted by the time in which it was added ahead of that specific entry.

8:55

With the excitement starting to settle a bit for now, time to dig deeper into the numbers. The unemployment rate printed at an even 4% versus the expectation for 3.9%. Average hourly earnings came in at a whopping 5.7% against a 5.2% forecast.

This has been a very key focal point for the Fed. As they dismissed inflationary pressure throughout last year, calling it ‘transitory,’ the qualm was that inflation wasn’t yet showing in wages. This morning speaks to that and highlights the fact that inflation is hitting worker wages which, of course, will impact corporates that now have higher personnel costs.

This could be a plus for bond yields and a negative for stocks, all other factors held equal.

Sure enough, the 10 year Treasury Yield is at its highest level in over two years.

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDS

NFP: Non-farm Payrolls Prints at 467k, USD in Focus After Going Oversold

Chart prepared by James Stanley; TNX on Tradingview

8:50

EUR/USD is falling from the resistance that was set right at the monthly high. This was the same level that topped the advance a few weeks ago, at 1.1483. If this move holds there could be the build of a very attractive double-top formation.

EUR/USD FOUR-HOUR PRICE CHART

NFP: Non-farm Payrolls Prints at 467k, USD in Focus After Going Oversold

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURUSD on Tradingview

8:40

NFP just released and the headline number was a whopping +467k, proving once again that ADP employment numbers are a lousy predictor of Non-farm Payrolls.

The immediate move was a snap higher in the USD as the currency was fairly oversold ahead of the release. This goes hand-in-hand with the pullback in EUR/USD, which was at its most overbought since December of 2020.

US DOLLAR 15-MINUTE PRICE CHART

NFP: Non-farm Payrolls Prints at 467k, USD in Focus After Going Oversold

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview

Stocks do not seem to be liking this print, as expectations for a week NFP and slower job growth or, perhaps even contractions in that data point could support a slower lift-off from the Fed. But, clearly that’s not what we have from this morning’s release and the bid is leaving equities, particularly the rate-sensitive Nasdaq 100, which is tipping down towards a key spot of support around 14,375 on the chart.

NASDAQ 100 FOUR-HOUR PRICE CHART

NFP: Non-farm Payrolls Prints at 467k, USD in Focus After Going Oversold

Chart prepared by James Stanley; Nasdaq 100 on Tradingview

8:20

Ahead of the event, the US Dollar is extremely weak, with the currency going into oversold territory on the four-hour chart. This has become a more recent occurrence in the USD as the currency went oversold a few weeks ago on the heels of a 7% CPI print, only to push into overbought territory a couple of weeks later after the FOMC rate decision.

In the week since that Fed meeting, matters have shifted quite a bit. Expectations have soured on US economic data and after yesterday’s ECB rate decision, hopes have started to build for an eventual shift in policy from the European Central Bank, with some research outlets even calling for hikes later this year. The US Dollar built in an evening star formation on Monday, which is often followed with the aim of bearish reversals – and that formation has continued to fill-in ever since with RSI now dipping into oversold territory.

US DOLLAR FOUR-HOUR PRICE CHART

NFP: Non-farm Payrolls Prints at 467k, USD in Focus After Going Oversold

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USD, DXY on Tradingview

That’s amounted to a strong shift in the EUR/USD pair which is more than 57% of the DXY’s composition; so going along with that oversold reading in the USD is an overbought reading in EUR/USD.

In EUR/USD, levels remain a concern as prices are now pushing up towards the monthly high, with a hold ahead of the NFP release. That level is at 1.1484 and just above, at 1.1500 is a major psychological levelthat marks the top-end of a longer-term resistance zone.

Again mirroring the other side of the USD, EUR/USD had set up for this topside move earlier in the week, building in a morning star formation, often followed with the aim of bullish reversals. These levels are in-play ahead of this morning’s NFP release, and the prospect of reversals in both USD and EUR/USD could be themes of interest for this morning’s event.

EUR/USD FOUR-HOUR PRICE CHART

NFP: Non-farm Payrolls Prints at 467k, USD in Focus After Going Oversold

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURUSD on Tradingview

Written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist for DailyFX.com

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  • 1 month later...

NonFarm Payrolls (NP, NFP) is an economic indicator reflecting the monthly number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sectors of the US economy. A very important macroeconomic indicator of the country, which most fully reflects the dynamics of unemployment in the United States.

  • Like 1
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Friday, 1st April 2022 economic event will revolve around the U.S. non-farm payroll figures which are expected at 13:30 pm London time.  We will post trade ideas and articles surrounding the data release, but we’re curious what IG Community members are thinking.

image.png

 

  • What is your NFP prediction?
  • Why is this your prediction?
  • How will you trade over the announcement?

Non-Farm Payrolls in focus

All the best - MongiIG

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  • 2 months later...

Today (Friday 3rd June 2022), the economic calendar is clearly dominated by the NFP. 14:30 Central European Summer Time GMT+2.

image.png

  • What is your NFP prediction?
  • Why is this your prediction?
  • How will you trade over the announcement?

 

Thanks and all the best

MongiIG

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