Jump to content

What are your predictions for non-farm payrolls?


MongiIG

Recommended Posts

Today, Friday 3rd December 2021 economic event will revolve around the U.S. non-farm payroll figures which are expected at 13:30 pm London time.  We will post trade ideas and articles surrounding the data release, but we’re curious what IG Community members are thinking.

 

  • What is your NFP prediction?
  • Why is this your prediction?
  • How will you trade over the announcement?

 

What is Non-farm Payrolls?

NFP is a macro economic data release which shows the monthly change in employment for a single month, excluding the farming sector, for the United States.

The figure is released as part of the U.S employment report on the first Friday of the month and contains information on unemployment, job growth and payroll data, amongst other quantitative statistics.  The NFP figure is one of the most closely watched indicators relating to the employment sector and is considered an accurate reflection of job creation.

The Feds responsibility to keep employment within a healthy range means this figure could have a causal effect on interest rates, and by association the USD and wider economy. Generally speaking the higher the number the better it is for the economy, however a figure below consensus can still have a negative impact if it catches traders off guard.

 

How does NFP affect the markets?

Generally speaking a higher number shows economic strength and is followed by a bullish movement in the USD. Most traders look out for an addition of 100,000 jobs or more as a positive sign, whilst any less is a negative as it indicates a lack of growth.

Anything outside of consensus can catch traders off guard pushing them to look to additional data from the employment report such as unemployment or manufacturing payroll numbers. For example a smaller unemployment figure and high payroll would generally cause dollar strength.

 

All the best - MongiIG

 

Link to comment

image.png

USD news event: 

Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 (UK Time) 3rd December 2021.

Previous: 531K

Estimate: 550K

Actual: TBA at 13:30 (UK Time)

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

US Unemployment Rate:

What is it?

This is a report on the percentage of people registered as unemployed in the US, calculated by dividing the number of employed by the total work force. Unemployed individuals are defined as being those able and willing to work who have actively sought employment within the last four weeks. The total work force is calculated as the sum of all those employed and unemployed who are 16 years and over.

Why is it important?

The unemployment rate gives a good picture of the labour environment in the US, and therefore provides insight into production, consumption and earnings. A lower figure suggests increased expenditure from an overall greater amount of wages, which may lead to economic growth as well as inflationary pressures. High unemployment rates, on the other hand, imply economic weakness, lower consumer spending power, etc. Released by: Bureau of Labor and Statistics (Monthly)

US unemployment rate at 13:30 (UK Time) 3rd December 2021.

Previous: 4.6%

Estimate: 4.5%

Actual: TBA at 13:30 (UK Time)

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

NFP and US unemployment rate will be out 13:30 GMT, let us know if you’ll be trading and what results you’re hoping for. Who will be trading?

Due to expected volatility guaranteed stop distances may be widened.

 

All the best - MongiIG

Link to comment
4 hours ago, MongiIG said:

image.png

USD news event: 

Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 (UK Time) 3rd December 2021.

Previous: 531K

Estimate: 550K

Actual: TBA at 13:30 (UK Time)

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

US Unemployment Rate:

What is it?

This is a report on the percentage of people registered as unemployed in the US, calculated by dividing the number of employed by the total work force. Unemployed individuals are defined as being those able and willing to work who have actively sought employment within the last four weeks. The total work force is calculated as the sum of all those employed and unemployed who are 16 years and over.

Why is it important?

The unemployment rate gives a good picture of the labour environment in the US, and therefore provides insight into production, consumption and earnings. A lower figure suggests increased expenditure from an overall greater amount of wages, which may lead to economic growth as well as inflationary pressures. High unemployment rates, on the other hand, imply economic weakness, lower consumer spending power, etc. Released by: Bureau of Labor and Statistics (Monthly)

US unemployment rate at 13:30 (UK Time) 3rd December 2021.

Previous: 4.6%

Estimate: 4.5%

Actual: TBA at 13:30 (UK Time)

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

NFP and US unemployment rate will be out 13:30 GMT, let us know if you’ll be trading and what results you’re hoping for. Who will be trading?

Due to expected volatility guaranteed stop distances may be widened.

 

All the best - MongiIG

Results:

image.png

USD news event: 

Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 (UK Time) 3rd December 2021.

Previous: 546K (revised)

Estimate: 550K

Actual: 210K

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

US unemployment rate at 13:30 (UK Time) 3rd December 2021.

Previous: 4.6%

Estimate: 4.5%

Actual: 4.2%

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

Share your thoughts and views if you traded the Non-Farm Payrolls and US unemployment rate event.

 

All the best - MongiIG

Link to comment

image.png

What Is the NFP and How Do You Trade It 100% Risk Free?

The U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in November, before a new Covid threat created a scare that growth could slow into the winter, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 210,000 for the month, though the unemployment rate fell sharply to 4.2%, even though the labor force participation rate increased for the month to 61.8%, its highest level since March 2020.

Full article: CNBC

Link to comment
  • 5 weeks later...

Trading the Non-Farm Payrolls: relevance, impact, tips and techniques

SUMMARY

Nonfarm payrolls is an employment report released monthly, usually on the first Friday of every month, and heavily affects the US dollar, the bond market and the stock market. Current Employment Statistics (CES) program from the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics, surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual work sites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls.

image.png

image.png

USD news event: 

Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 (UK Time) 7th January 2022.

Previous: 210K

Estimate: 400K

Actual: TBA

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

US unemployment rate at 13:30 (UK Time) 7th January 2022.

Previous: 4.2%

Estimate: 4.1%

Actual: TBA

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

NFP and US unemployment rate will be out 13:30 GMT, let us know if you’ll be trading and what results you’re hoping for. Who will be trading?

Due to expected volatility guaranteed stop distances may be widened.

 

All the best - MongiIG

  • Thought provoking 1
Link to comment
10 hours ago, RCtrader said:

I'd rather have the price move up and down as in being very volatile but closing the day candle at the opening. :)

Hi @RCtrader

Thanks for sharing. So you would not trade the NFP fundamental event as it is happening you would rather wait for the event to happen the volatility and wait for a daily candle close? Is this to get an overall trend direction bias for whatever instrument is affected by NFP that you will be trading on for the following week ?

All the best - MongiIG

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment

What is NFP & Why Is It Important | Learn How to Trade the Non Farm Payroll Report

 

The non farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It represents the number of jobs added, excluding farm employees, government employees, private household employees and employees of nonprofit organizations. Learn how NFP releases can cause large movements in the forex market.

00:00 - Introduction

00:21- A breakdown of NFP

00:54 - Why is it important

01:26 - How to interpret NFP data

02:12 - NFP data & The US economy

03:13 - What do changes in the data mean

03:20 - Conclusion

 

All the best - MongiIG

Link to comment

NFP: Non-Farm Payrolls Prints at +199k, Unemployment Rate 3.9%

NFP: Non-Farm Payrolls Prints at +199k, Unemployment Rate 3.9%

 

image.png

USD news event: 

Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 (UK Time) 7th January 2022.

Previous: 249K (revised)

Estimate: 400K

Actual: 199K

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

US unemployment rate at 13:30 (UK Time) 7th January 2022.

Previous: 4.2%

Estimate: 4.1%

Actual: 3.9%

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD. Source: investing.com

 

 

Share your thoughts and views if you traded the Non-Farm Payrolls and US unemployment rate event.

 

All the best - MongiIG

Link to comment
10 hours ago, MongiIG said:

Hi @RCtrader

Thanks for sharing. So you would not trade the NFP fundamental event as it is happening you would rather wait for the event to happen the volatility and wait for a daily candle close? Is this to get an overall trend direction bias for whatever instrument is affected by NFP that you will be trading on for the following week ?

All the best - MongiIG

Well, I would trade any financial instrument prior the release of the NFP, but I would not do that during the release and after it. In my opinion, it's almost like gambling. Perhaps, one could enter the market an hour after the event, if the PA has taken a direction. But again, there is a level of uncertainty. 

  • Great! 1
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      17,279
    • Total Posts
      81,346
    • Total Members
      65,883
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Donald-duck-30
    Joined 24/01/22 13:05
  • Posts

    • Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Russell 2000 Mauled as Risk-Off Sentiment Dominates Price Action Jan 24, 2022 |   Nick Cawley, Strategist. DailyFX NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, Russell 2000: Prices, Charts ,and Analysis Equity markets testing fresh multi-week lows. Market heavyweight’s Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla all announce earnings this week. Global risk markets are under heavy selling pressure as the week starts with equities hit across the board, while cryptocurrencies are again registering heavy losses. The markets have been in a risk-off mood for most of January and losses are now accelerating as we head towards the FOMC decision on Wednesday. The markets are currently pricing-in an excessively hawkish Federal Reserve – 4+ rate hikes, end of quantitative easing, the start of quantitative tightening – and this coupled with Russian warmongering against Ukraine has hit risk sentiment hard. Russia is said to have 100,000 troops situated on the border with Ukraine, fueling invasion fears, with the US now suggesting that it will send up to 50,000 troops as well as aircraft and warships to Eastern Europe in an effort to stop Russia from making any incursion. A look at three American indices shows the depth of the recent sell-off. This week’s US earnings season may also add some extra volatility with Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Visa (V) among a raft of heavyweight companies announcing their Q4 results. The Nasdaq 100 is down just under 15% from its November 22 high and last week convincingly broke the dominant multi-month uptrend. The indices now rests on a prior swing low around 14,373 and a break below here opens the way to much deeper losses. The CCI indicator is deep in oversold territory and this may temper the current move lower. NASDAQ 100 DAILY PRICE CHART – JANUARY 24, 2022 How to Short Sell a Stock When Trading Falling Markets The S&P 500 is also making fresh multi-week lows with the indices down nearly 10% since the January 4 all-time high. The two largest constituents of the S&P 500, Apple (6.2% weighting) and Microsoft (5.9% weighting) release their earnings this week and any miss or disappointment could send the indices lower still. The next level of technical support for the US 500 is seen around 4,271. S&P 500 DAILY PRICE CHART - JANUARY 24, 2022 The Russell 2000, a small-cap market proxy is down nearly 20% since earlyNovember and heading into a technical bear market. The technical outlook remains weak with a 50-day sma/20- day sma ‘death cross’ formed on January 7. The indices has convincingly broken below a group of supportive prior lows and is now heading towards a zone between 1,884 and 1,924. RUSSELL 200 DAILY PRICE CHART – JANUARY 24, 2022   What is your view on Equities and Risk – bullish or bearish?
    • Gold The gold price spent the past two sessions consolidating after its mid-week gains, but the higher high is still intact. A renewed push higher brings $1860 into view, and then on to $1875. Having cleared trendline resistance from the November high, the next line to watch comes in around $1850, marking trendline resistance from the May peak. Source: ProRealTime     Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Monday 24 January 2022
×
×
  • Create New...