Jump to content

Trader Caution Called for on Omicron Spread, Fed Meeting | Sentiment Webinar


Recommended Posts

MARKET SENTIMENT ANALYSIS:

  • Markets are stable as traders wait for more information about the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant and the meetings this week of the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.
  • Traders will need to be cautious until those meetings are over and trends become clearer.
Trader Caution Called for on Omicron Spread, Fed Meeting | Sentiment Webinar

TRADER CAUTION CALLED FOR

Traders need to be cautious this week ahead of news about the spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant and a slew of central bank meetings: the Federal Reserve announces its decision on monetary policy Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England Thursday, and the Bank of Japan Friday.

The Fed will be especially important for market sentiment as it is expected to be hawkish after news that US inflation has hit its highest level since 1982, and a decision to reduce its bond-buying program faster than previously expected is on the cards. Neither the ECB nor the BoE are expected to follow suit, particularly as evidence is building for a slowdown in Germany and new restrictions are being introduced in the UK because of Covid-19 worries.

Still, the major trend in pairs like EUR/USD is lower, and that could mean more losses once the current period of consolidation is over.

EUR/USD PRICE CHART, DAILY TIMEFRAME (MAY 11 – DECEMBER 14, 2021)

Latest EUR/USD price chart

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips

BUSY WEEK FOR SENTIMENT DATA

This week is also busy for forward-looking data that could impact sentiment. Among the highlights are “flash” purchasing managers’ indexes for most of the major economies Thursday, as well as the Ifo business climate index for Germany Friday.

As for the IG client sentiment numbers, there is currently a bullish signal for GBP/USD and you can read more about that here. The data show that 74.35% of GBP/USD traders are net-long, with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.90 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.89% higher than yesterday and 3.74% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.68% lower than yesterday and 3.96% lower than last week.

Here at DailyFX, we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD may fall. Moreover, traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

In this webinar, I looked at the trends in the major currency, commodity and stock markets, at the forward-looking data on the economic calendar this week, at the IG Client Sentiment page on the DailyFX website, and at the IG Client Sentiment reports that accompany it.

 

Written by Martin Essex, Analyst, 14th December 2021. DailyFX

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • GX Uranium ETF Commodity Elliott Wave Analysis The GX URA ETF, also known as the Global X Uranium ETF, tracks the performance of companies in the uranium industry. This ETF offers investors a diversified portfolio that includes firms involved in uranium mining, exploration, and production worldwide. As nuclear power gains recognition as a cleaner energy alternative, the demand for uranium is expected to rise, making the GX URA ETF an attractive option for investors looking to benefit from the sector's growth. Price completed the bearish corrective cycle from May 2024 in August of the same year and the commodity has followed with rapid rallies to confirm it’s in another bullish phase. The commodity is now expected to extend above the May 2024 high to reach its highest price in over a decade. Long Term Analysis From the long-term view, GX URA appears to be in a bullish corrective cycle. Between February 2011 to March 2020, the ETF fell consistently making lower lows and lower highs reminiscent of an impulse wave structure. price has been correcting the long-term bearish run since the low of March 2020. From March 2020, the price completed an impulse wave sequence for wave A (circled) of the primary degree in November 2021. Afterward, it made a corrective pullback for wave B (circled) which ended in July 2022. From there an impulse wave was completed for wave (1) of C (circled) in May 2024 and a pullback followed for wave (2) as the daily chart shows. The current rally from the 5th of August 2024 is expected to be wave 1 of (3). Wave 1 is incomplete. Thus, there is a lot of room for buyers to keep pushing the long-term recovery. H4 Chart Analysis On the H4 chart, the price is currently in wave ((iii)) of 1 and could extend higher before pullback for ((iv)) where buyers will like to buy again. Traders can look for buying opportunities from the dip when the price completes wave ((iv)) or wave 2 in the near term. Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • NEE Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge NextEra Energy Inc., (NEE) Daily Chart NEE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION: Wave 5. DIRECTION: Upside in {iii} of 5. DETAILS: We are looking at a potential upside target for wave 5 at 100$, as we are now trading above TraingLevel8 at 80$. NextEra Energy Inc., (NEE) 1H Chart NEE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION: Wave (v) of {iii}. DIRECTION: Upside in wave (v). DETAILS: Looking for upside in wave (v) as we seem to have broken the triangle in wave (iv). We have 1.618 {iii} vs. {i} at 89$ which could be an upside target, especially considering 88$ will be a profit taking number. This Elliott Wave analysis of NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE) outlines both the daily and 1-hour chart structures, highlighting the current trends and possible future price movements. * NEE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Daily Chart* On the daily chart, NEE is progressing within an impulsive motive wave, specifically in Wave 5. The stock is currently moving higher within Wave {iii} of 5. With the stock now trading above TradingLevel8 at $80, the next upside target for Wave 5 is around $100. This is a critical level, as the stock has shown strong bullish momentum, breaking key resistance levels. Traders should look for continued upside movement, particularly as it approaches this psychological level of $100. * NEE Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 1H Chart* On the 1-hour chart, NEE is in the final stages of Wave (v) of {iii}, having recently broken out of a triangle pattern that formed during Wave (iv). The next target for Wave (v) is around $89, which coincides with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of {iii} vs {i}. Additionally, $88 could serve as a profit-taking level due to its proximity to this Fibonacci extension target. With the triangle break and continued upside momentum, NEE is expected to see further gains in the short term, especially with $89 acting as the next key resistance. Technical Analyst : Alessio Barretta Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • BHARAT ELECTRICALS – BEL (1D Chart) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Larger Degree Trend Higher (Intermediate degree, orange) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Minute Wave ((ii)) Navy Details: Minute Wave ((iii)) Navy of Minor Wave 5 Grey is now progressing higher against 229. Alternatively Wave 5 Grey completed above 342. Bullish traders please exercise caution. No change. Invalidation point: 229 Bharat Electricals Daily Chart Technical Analysis and potential Elliott Wave Counts: Bharat Electricals Elliott Wave Counts on daily chart is indicting Minor Wave 5 Grey pushing higher through 350 levels, going forward. Prices must stay above 229, Minor Wave 4 Grey termination, for the bullish count to hold true. Bharat Electricals has been rallying since January 2023 after printing lows around 85 mark. The above progressive rally has unfolded as an impulse with Minor Waves 1 through 5 marked. Minor Wave 4 terminated around 229 on June 04, 2024 and since then bulls are pushing through Minor Wave 5.  Further within Minor Wave 5 Grey. Minute Waves ((i)) and ((ii)) seems to be in place around 330 and 270 respectively. If correct, prices should ideally stay above 270 and continue higher as Minute Wave ((iii)) unfolds. Alternate Elliot Wave count suggests Wave 5 Grey is in place around 330.   BHARAT ELECTRICALS – BEL (4H Chart) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Larger Degree Trend Higher (Intermediate degree, orange) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Minute Wave ((ii)) Navy Details: Minute Wave ((iii)) Navy of Minor Wave 5 Grey is now progressing higher against 229. Furthermore, Minuette Waves (i) and (ii) are complete and (iii) Orange should ideally push through 320 levels. Alternatively Wave 5 Grey completed above 342. Invalidation point: 229 Bharat Electricals 4H Chart Technical Analysis and potential Elliott Wave Counts: Bharat Electricals 4H is highlighting Minuette degree sub waves within Minute Wave ((i)) and ((ii)) and further. The lower degree Elliott Wave counts suggest Minute Wave ((ii)) unfolded as a zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) Orange, terminating around 270 mark. Minute Wave ((iii)) is progressing against 270 at the time of writing. Conclusion: Bharat Electricals is progressing higher towards 350 at least, as Minute Wave ((iii)) unfolds within Minor Wave 5 Grey, going forward. Elliott Wave Analyst: Harsh Japee Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
×
×
  • Create New...
us