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Caseynotes

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  • 2 weeks later...

  wrote  'so, what is your analysis telling you that it will do ?'   That of course is the easy bit.  Watch and react, don't try to predict.

 

The market has come up to a significant level (107.30) and one side or the other will take control, who cares which? Because once a side has control they will push price to the next significant level in their direction, that's the important bit.

 

The signif level is 107.30 which is the monthly support level from the September low (see daily chart).

Successfully retesting that now on the hourly chart, that showed more buy than sell orders so there must be unfilled buy orders remaining on that level. Yes price may come back down for a second retest but it is less likely (probability) as it has just retested 107.30 and sellers will know there will be unfilled buy orders waiting there, they know they will be better off selling higher at 107.90.

 

The First Trouble Area ahead (FTA is always the prior immediate high/low)  is at 107.90.

If the buyers breach 107.90 then the next targets are as per the daily chart all things being equal which they never are, for example there is the FOMC minutes tonight.

 

USDJPY(£)H1.pngUSDJPY(£)Daily.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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But, but, probabilities, my 10 pip stop below 107.30 still looks fine plus the benefit of using levels based on the higher (monthly) chart, hedge fund managers consider anything less than a weekly chart is just noise, admittedly they are working with a 300 pip stop but there is no reason I can't take advantage if opportunity presents.

 

Question: should I move my stop loss to break even? With a well defined level and a tight stop of course the answer is no, because the possibility of failure will always remain while the potential for multiple 'R' gains remains high.

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