usdjpy

[phillo]

I like trading for GAP fills - there's one in USDJPY still

[phillo]

weird how my text came out in that last post !!!:smileysurprised:

[Caseynotes]

Text looks ok when clicked to magnify the chart. A weekend gap with no real attempt to fill on market open, unusual.

[Caseynotes]

Attempting to break out of it's ascending triangle, could be worth watching today. After a clear break then looking for an opportunity to get long on a pullback in a lesser time frame.

 

 

 

 

 

[phillo]

well, price poked it's toe into that gap & bounced back up. I'm still "hopeful" that gap will fill !

[Caseynotes]

Yen catching the bid off money outflow from indices so usdjpy has potential to crash down though the year long support zone.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/09/reuters-america-forex-yen-in-sight-of-4-month-high-vs-dollar-as-world-stocks-tumble.html

 

[phillo]

  GAP filled            :smileyhappy:                            

[Caseynotes]

Creeps back above the old monthly support line (107.30) just as DXY heads into resistance. 

Today's release of the minutes from the last FOMC mtg may decide the fate of both.

 

 

 

[phillo]

so, what is your analysis telling you that it will do ?

[phillo]

[Caseynotes]

  wrote  'so, what is your analysis telling you that it will do ?'   That of course is the easy bit.  Watch and react, don't try to predict.

 

The market has come up to a significant level (107.30) and one side or the other will take control, who cares which? Because once a side has control they will push price to the next significant level in their direction, that's the important bit.

 

The signif level is 107.30 which is the monthly support level from the September low (see daily chart).

Successfully retesting that now on the hourly chart, that showed more buy than sell orders so there must be unfilled buy orders remaining on that level. Yes price may come back down for a second retest but it is less likely (probability) as it has just retested 107.30 and sellers will know there will be unfilled buy orders waiting there, they know they will be better off selling higher at 107.90.

 

The First Trouble Area ahead (FTA is always the prior immediate high/low)  is at 107.90.

If the buyers breach 107.90 then the next targets are as per the daily chart all things being equal which they never are, for example there is the FOMC minutes tonight.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[phillo]

[Caseynotes]

[phillo]

[Caseynotes]

But, but, probabilities, my 10 pip stop below 107.30 still looks fine plus the benefit of using levels based on the higher (monthly) chart, hedge fund managers consider anything less than a weekly chart is just noise, admittedly they are working with a 300 pip stop but there is no reason I can't take advantage if opportunity presents.

 

Question: should I move my stop loss to break even? With a well defined level and a tight stop of course the answer is no, because the possibility of failure will always remain while the potential for multiple 'R' gains remains high.

[Caseynotes]

Hey???, ,  did you do that?

[phillo]

[phillo]

Tricky one right  "Previous support is now resistance"    -  

[Caseynotes]

Support turned resistance turned support.

 

[phillo]

K I S S                

[Caseynotes]

Keep It Simple to Succeed, quite right, but where to now? BOJ threatening to intervene to stop yen rise, USD threatening to turn around on the back of increasing economic strength after a year of down trend. 

[phillo]

don't care, I made money on that short

[phillo]

by the way  KISS = Keep it simple stupid :-)

[Caseynotes]

Well done, couldn't be more pleased for you, does that mean you are  already out? It was a good battle between the 107.90 and 10730.

[phillo]

I'm done   Night Night

[Caseynotes]

US treasury yields up, US dollar up on new Fed chair Powell's testimony to the HFSC.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-26/asia-stocks-to-rise-as-u-s-gains-before-powell-markets-wrap

 

 

[phillo]

[phillo]

[Caseynotes]

Both the USD and the Dow slipped yesterday afternoon presumably on new tariff announcements from Trump highlighting the prospect of new trade and currency wars.  

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Has run into the 100 MA on the 4 hour which has acted as resistance since Jan, likely to loiter while waiting for direction from NFP.