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Caseynotes

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  1. Adding this video link to this thread. 'Why Volatility is the Key to Trading'. It's an hour long 'how to' use futures options trade positioning to indicate possible direction in spot markets using usd/jpy as an example. It's a bit rushed to get it all in in one hour and gets a bit maths thick in places but don't worry as the skew calculations are available daily from many sources on the web, it just showing how it's done, but well worth sticking to as you end up with a chart with Bollinger Bands morphing into futures positioning high/low bands. So you have an indicator that's using real time data to plot direction not historical data. Interesting stuff.
  2. Many simply expect far too much from TA, certainly there is no simple yes/no indicator that will have a positive probability because if there was everyone would use it and the market would simply arbitrage it out. All indicators can only be based on historic data and we've all seen the warnings that past performance does not indicate the future. Nearly all indicators I've seen are stamped by the creator with the warning it should not be used in isolation and that would be right. I would consider the natural wave or zig zag patterns of charts as a base, some like to count bars and try to see repeated patterns in the ratios, some like to name the waves look for the ratio of the large ones (it's 1/7, I saw that down the beach one day) but I wouldn't really bother with any of that. If a combination of indicators is needed I would look to be matching the frequency's of a fast and a slow oscillator to apply to a trending chart as probably having the best chance with a view to achieving a slightly better win probability than 50/50 and a risk/reward ratio of n number of trades of around 1:2. That would be enough.
  3. Dax above the pivot but remains trapped under 11546 while Dow stuck at R1 25816 waiting for the US open. H1 charts;
  4. Interesting, thanks for the info, do you know if they publish the aggregated account history of their recommended trades?
  5. you haven't had time to watch it and by the way didn't you once ask how do you use options positioning as an indicator? well it's all there.
  6. LSE still delayed open, next update expected in a few minutes.
  7. I saved this recording of a webinar from a few days ago on Volatility by Chris Weston (formerly of IG). Haven't seen the whole thing yet (60 min) but looks good, covers how to use volatility as a tool to aid trading and uses insider broker info for emphasis. How to use Realised vol, Implied vol, Risk Reversals, COT, ATRs, BBs and options positioning and lots more.
  8. LSE seem to be having problems this morning, ftse 100 and 250 delayed open.
  9. Yay, news articles mentioning 'recession' hit 600, even during 2016 only topped at 500 - maybe this time the market will actually listen but I wouldn't bet on it. We got our pause candle yesterday and this morning showing early signs of looking to reverse back up. The markets were helped yesterday by China making soothing comments but still just a war of words at the moment, something actual will need to happen or Trump will be obliged to introduce some new tariffs early September.
  10. Overnight Indices and USD up Cryptos down, Oil up Gold down and Bonds take a breather. Chart 30 year Treasury Bond. US housing data, plus the only high impact release today is the US Mich consumer sentiment at 3pm.
  11. Hi, sometimes a stock will be taken off the platform simply due to lack of through put but is still available via telephone to the dealing desk, worth inquiring.
  12. For a daily chart choose a higher level pivot, the monthly here is quite interesting.
  13. yes, historically it can be many months before indices show any sign of a down turn as a follow on from a yield curve inversion. Also bond markets have changed a lot over recent years with negative interest rates and negative bond yields throughout western Europe and Japan.
  14. Dax and Dow below the pivot tried lower after the London open but bought back up before reaching yesterday's lows so looks like next a test of the pivot. H1 charts;
  15. Dax, Dow and Ftse very much in sync and trying to lift, strong support just below. After these big daily swings this week may be time for a pause candle.
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