Jump to content

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Downtrend Paused. Will Reversal Follow?


Recommended Posts

EURO, EUR/USD, MAJORS-BASED EURO INDEX, IGCS – TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

  • Euro has been trying to fight back following persistent losses
  • Still, a majors-based index and EUR/USD remain pressured
  • Most retail traders are long the Euro, is this a bearish sign?
EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for March 12, 2021

MAJORS-BASED EURO INDEX – DAILY CHART

Taking a look at a majors-based Euro index, which averages the single currency against the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, British Pound and Australian Dollar, EUR remains in a downtrend. Looking outside of recent losses, the Euro has been on the decline since December 2020, but support at 1.4610 – 1.4636 has been proving resilient on the daily chart below. Positive RSI divergence has been persisting, showing fading downside momentum.

This may open the door to a turn higher, and in such an outcome there are a few key technical highlights to watch. The first is a near-term falling trendline from December 2021. Clearing higher may open the door to extending gains. Then, a further test could be had at the 100-day Simple Moving Average as key resistance. Otherwise, downtrend resumption exposes the 2020 low.

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Downtrend Paused. Will Reversal Follow?

Chart Created in TradingView

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY CHART

How does this translate into EUR/USD? The pair remains in a downtrend since the beginning of 2021. Lately, the pair has been consolidating. This has resulted in what appears to be an Ascending Triangle chart formation. The direction of the breakout could precede the next trend. It should be noted that a falling trendline from May is fast approaching, which could pivot the pair back lower.

Downtrend resumption entails clearing the November low at 1.1195. Not much further below that sits the June 19, 2020 low. Keep a close eye on RSI, where positive divergence may emerge. Extending losses exposes the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 1.1074 before facing the 78.6% level at 1.0989. On the flip side, taking out the ceiling of the triangle at 1.13387 may open the door to retesting 1.1525. The latter formerly held as support in October and November before breaking down. It could remerge as resistance.

 

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Downtrend Paused. Will Reversal Follow?

Chart Created in TradingView

IGCS OUTLOOK – MARKET POSITIONING

Taking a look at IG Client Sentiment, which can at times be a contrarian indicator, about 58% of retail traders are net-long EUR/USD. Since most traders are bullish, this suggests prices may continue falling. However, upside exposure increased by 16.75% compared to yesterday, while falling by 12.37% versus one week ago. With that in mind, the combination of overall and recent changes in positioning are offering a mixed trading bias.

*IGCS data pulled from January 10th

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Downtrend Paused. Will Reversal Follow?

Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com. 11th Jan 2022.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      21,623
    • Total Posts
      91,867
    • Total Members
      41,903
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Okbill
    Joined 23/03/23 22:43
  • Posts

    • In general, I will start with the fact that I was looking for a cube would be possible to invest money to multiply Some bets, stock exchanges didn't really work for me. I decided to look for something really worthwhile. In general I got to cryptocurrency, studied it for a while and tried to get into it. Then I got interested in all sorts of nft, metaverse, and so on And then I found a quite interesting and fresh project It's called Sabai Ecoverse. There, and you can earn from zero, and multiply the capital. In general, I just started to get into it. Can you also look at and say your opinion, please
    • Markets Digest the Possibility of a Fed Pause and BoE Hikes 25 bps. The Thursday  Market Outlook with Richard Snow gives a report on the latest changes in the financial markets, providing timely fundamental, economic and technical analysis and a close examination of promising chart formations with live currency quotes which you can look forward to.    
    • The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a so-called Wells notice on Coinbase which saw the stock down heavily after-hours last night on Wall Street.    Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 23 March 2023  This is a document indicating that the SEC is preparing to act against some parts of the business. IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor explains that as the story develops, and more is heard, traders will be able to make a better judgment. Coinbase shares plunge The crypto exchange Coinbase fell more than 22% yesterday late in the session, all-sessions on the IG platform, it trades outside of hours, and it was this trading that represented a big drop in the share price. Share price chart Let's take a look at what happened because it explains the situation quite well. We have subsequently this morning seen a little bit of a rebound, but that 22% drop came after the company was issued a so-called Wells notice by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The Wells notice is often one of the final steps before the SEC formally issues charges against the business, generally laying out the framework for what happens next. So we've got this drop that came through last night. We've subsequently seen a little bit of a rise on the session. CNBC said last night that based on discussions with the staff that potentially enforcement actions would relate to aspects of the company's spot market staking service, Coinbase Earn, Coinbase Prime and also the Coinbase Wallet business. Now the SEC is on high alert in the crypto industry in the wake of the failure of FTX. The recent gains we've seen in Coinbase have really all been about what's been happening with Bitcoin. Bitcoin has risen a whopping 47 and three quarter percent from the lows we had back on the 10th of March, all the way up to the highs we saw on Wednesday, yesterday, mid-session before the pullback. It's acting a little bit like a safe haven in the world of the markets. But Coinbase reflected this to some degree. But that knock yesterday was a really big pullback. But the investors are regrouping around the business and see this stock now up all-sessions, up 7% today. Where it'll open remains to be seen, but I suspect we could well see a little bit of a drop at the start later on today on Wall Street.
×
×
  • Create New...