Jump to content

The Consumer Price Index (CPI)


Recommended Posts

US CPI Preview: How Will the US Dollar React?

 

US CPI, US Dollar Analysis and News

  • Increasingly Hawkish Fed Doing Little to Support the USD
  • US CPI Projected to Hit 7% for the First Time Since 1982

What Is the Consumer Price Index, What Does CPI Measure - TheStreet

The USD continues to struggle, failing to find its feet, despite the Fed hawks coming out in force yesterday, alongside Powell reiterating much of what we have seen priced in over the past week. Among the more notable comments had come from Bostic, who is the first Fed speaker to put a number on the size of the balance sheet runoff. The Atlanta President stated that the balance sheet should decline at least $100bln/month. To put that in context, this would be triple the size of the monthly runoff seen during the 2017-2019 quantitative tightening period.

  • The 2017-2019 QT period saw the balance sheet fall $31.3bln/month on average
  • 2018 average at $30.3bln/month
  • 2019 average (stopping in Sep) at $38.6bln/month

Moving on, the main event of today will be the latest US CPI report, where expectations are for the headline to rise 0.2ppts to 7.0%, while the core figure is seen up 0.5ppts to 5.4%. That being said, with the USD failing to rise in light of markets pricing in a more aggressive tightening path, going from 3 to 3.5 hikes this year, it does seem that traders are biased to sell the USD with much of the good news already reflected in the price.

CPI Data

  • CPI Expected 7.0% (Previous 6.8%), Range 6.6%-7.2%
  • Core CPI Expected 5.4% (Previous 4.9%), Range 4.2%-5.6%

The CPI and Forex: How CPI Data Affects Currency Prices

The table below shows the multi-asset reaction to the US CPI in recent months, which shows that anything short of a sizeable upside surprise, results in USD depreciation. The fact is, the Fed has acknowledged that inflation is spiralling somewhat, therefore, with markets over 80% priced in for a March hike and near 50% priced in for a fourth hike, significant upside for the USD appears to be limited.

Figure 1. Multi-Asset Response to US CPI

US CPI Preview: How Will the US Dollar React?

Source: DailyFX, Refinitiv, Bloomberg

 

FX Option Implied Volatility Subdued Ahead of US CPI

Ahead of the CPI report, FX options are implying a rather tepid reaction to the risk event. The

The Euro breakeven straddle is at 42pips (meaning, EUR/USD is expected to move in either direction by 42pips). Of course, while FX option implied volatility is tame, a reminder that the size of the reaction will be dependent on the deviation from consensus.

US CPI Preview: How Will the US Dollar React?

Source: Refinitiv

Implied Volatility: What it is & Why Traders Should Care

 

Jan 12, 2022 |  Justin McQueen, Strategist. DailyFX

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • FTSE 100 makes yet another record high while DAX and S&P 500 rally is slowing down Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX and S&P 500 ahead of Thursday’s BoE monetary policy meeting. Source: Getty Images Written by: Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London   Publication date: Wednesday 08 May 2024 13:37 FTSE 100 hits yet another record high The FTSE 100 has so far seen four straight days of gains with each making a new record high ahead of this morning’s, the fifth day in a row around the 8,350 mark. Further up beckons the 8,500 region. The tentative April-to-May uptrend line at 8,280 offers support. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 trades in one-month high The DAX 40 has seen four straight days of gains take it to a one-month high around the 18,450 level with the April record high at 18,636 representing the next upside target. Potential slips should find good support between the 24 and 29 April highs at 18,240 and 18,238. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 see five straight days of gains The S&P 500’s 3.5% rally from its early May low amid five consecutive days of gains has taken it to the 5,200 mark around which it may short-term lose upside momentum. A slip towards the 5,132 to 5,123 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and the late April high might be on the cards for this week. Were the recent advance to continue, though, the April record high at 5,274 would be back in the frame. Source: ProRealTime
    • Gold price edges down, while WTI crude price comes under pressure and natural gas price rallies to four-month high While gold is fighting to hold on to gains and natural gas has soared to a four-month high, oil prices have slumped through the lows of last week. Source: Getty Images Written by: Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London   Publication date: Wednesday 08 May 2024 13:22 Gold remains above recent lows The price continues to carve out a low, with buyers entering over the past week to ensure that, for now, the $2290 level holds. If this marks the low for the time being then we could see a resumption of the move higher, with the higher low helping to reinforce the bullish medium-term view. This then targets the $2400 highs from mid-April. A close back below $2280 negates this outlook, and could see the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) tested next. Source: ProRealTime WTI pushes to two-month low Oil prices have suffered further losses in morning trading, dropping through the lows of Monday and Friday and heading to levels not seen since mid-March. Signs of a lessening of tensions in the Middle East appear to be behind the move, which has negated the nascent indications of a low that appeared over the previous two sessions. The February lows at $76 now come into view. A close back above $78 and the 100-day SMA would be needed to revive hopes that a low has formed. Source: ProRealTime Natural Gas hits four-month high The past week has seen the price, finally, make serious headway, and it now finds itself back at the late January highs. Further gains would head towards the 200-day SMA. The price might yet create a lower high, though this would need a reversal and close back below 2100 to signal some near-term weakness is at hand. Source: ProRealTime
    • AR Price on the Rise?   Bullish Pattern Hints at $100 by 2024   The chart shows a potential inverted head and shoulders but faces a hurdle at $44.  Read more for the full analysis!   https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/this-bullish-pattern-in-ar-price-teases-100-in-2024/   #AR #Cryptocurrency  
×
×
  • Create New...
us