Jump to content

Crude Oil Soars to New Heights Despite a Strong US Dollar. Where To For WTI?


MongiIG

Recommended Posts

CRUDE OIL, US DOLLAR, RUSSIA, UKRAINE, OPEC+, WTI - TALKING POINTS

  • Crude oil prices run higher as supply and demand factors face off
  • Supply issues remain a problem as OPEC+ are unable to deliver
  • Energy demand increases loom as the northern winter hits. Will WTI rise?
Oil climbs as dollar slumps; gains capped by pandemic surge | Reuters

Crude oil has continued on from last week’s gain in Asian trade on Monday. With northern hemisphere storms brewing, geopolitical concerns, supply constraints and option hedging all in play, the energy commodity appears to have little choice for now.

Tensions continue to rise around the Ukraine-Russian border as Moscow orders more troops to the area. A conflict in this region could undermine European energy sources and has added to global oil supply concerns.

The Pentagon has de-classified a number of military intelligence reports showing the build-up of weaponry. They have also pointed toward a mis-information campaign within the Ukraine that they say has been orchestrated by Russia.

A number of analysts and commentators have made calls for oil prices over $100 bbl in the last few weeks. With OPEC+ unable to deliver in full on their output increases of late, their forecasts are drawing near.

On Wednesday, OPEC+ are due to discuss output targets at their scheduled meeting.

Above $90 bbl may see option underwriters start to hedge their exposure. According to data from Bloomberg, the number of calls that have been written far outweigh the number of puts above $90 bbl.

This would lead to buying of oil as the price accelerates north. Once the price has moved up through various thresholds and the options have been hedged, if the price is to fall, then the hedging of these options will see those same buyers turn around and start selling. This could add further to price volatility.

 

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

WTI crude oil traded at its highest level since October 2014 on Friday.

The move up has nudged against the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) based Bollinger Band but it has been unable to close outside the upper band. This could indicate that the market is comfortable with the rate of change in the rally.

On the topside, resistance may be offered at the recent previous high of 88.84.

The 10-day simple moving average (SMA)is currently just above a prior pivot point at 85.90 and might provide support.

Previous lows and pivot points of 81.90, 79.33, 77.44, 74.96, 74.76 and 73.34 could also provide support.

CRUDE OIL CHART

Chart created in TradingView

 

 

Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for DailyFX.com. 31st Jan 2022

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      21,601
    • Total Posts
      91,801
    • Total Members
      41,862
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 11:53

    Newest Member
    franksta
    Joined 21/03/23 08:54
  • Posts

    • Shopify Inc., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Shopify Inc.,(SHOP:NASDAQ): Daily Chart, 21 March 23, SHOP Stock Market Analysis: Shopify keeps moving sideways as expected, as it stays between the 20 and 200EMA. As long as we do not break the red line we can assume we will be seeing further downside.   SHOP Elliott Wave Count: Wave (iv) of {i}. SHOP Technical Indicators: At the cross of 20 and 200EMA. SHOP Trading Strategy: Waiting for a potential triangle in wave (iv). TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta     Shopify Inc., SHOP: 4-hour Chart, 21 March 23, Shopify Inc., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis SHOP Stock Market Analysis: We keep moving sideways in a three wave manner, which confirms the fact we are in a corrective structure. We are moving between the 50% and 38.2% retracement of (iii).   SHOP Elliott Wave count: Wave (iv) of {i}. SHOP Technical Indicators: Above all averages.   SHOP Trading Strategy: Looking for sideways continuation in wave (iv).
    • Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge Daily Chart, 21 March 23,   Ethereum/U.S.dollar(ETHUSD) ETHUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis  Function: Follow trend Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave III Direction Next higher Degrees: wave (I) of Motive Details: Wave 3 equals 1.618 multiplied Length of wave 1 at 2943.53 Wave Cancel invalid level: 1073.42 Ethereum/U.S.dollar(ETHUSD)Trading Strategy: Ethereum resumes its upward trend in wave III with a chance to reach the 161.8 level of wave I at 2943.53. Also, the price has risen above the MA200 line, giving the view to a continued upward trend in wave III. Ethereum/U.S.dollar(ETHUSD)Technical Indicators: The price is above the MA200 indicating an UpTrend. The wave oscillators above Zero-Line momentum are bullish. TradingLounge Analyst: Kittiampon Somboonsod, CEWA     Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge 4H Chart, 21 March 23,   Ethereum/U.S.dollar(ETHUSD) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Follow trend Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave (3) Direction Next higher Degrees: wave ((3)) of Motive Details: Wave 3 equals 1.618 multiplied Length of wave 1 at 2290 Wave Cancel invalid level: 1369 Ethereum/U.S.dollar(ETHUSD)Trading Strategy: Ethereum resumes its upward trend in wave (3) with a chance to reach the 161.8 level of wave (1) at 2290. Also, the price has risen above the MA200 line, giving the view to a continued upward trend in wave (3). Ethereum/U.S.dollar(ETHUSD)Technical Indicators: The price is above the MA200 indicating an UpTrend. The wave oscillators above Zero-Line momentum are bullish.
    • Content Bitcoin BTC/USD Summary 28,000, 30,000 and 33,000 are the resistance levels that fit in the Elliott Wave count. The current move up is in line with the bear market rally Elliott wave count I have for the NASDAQ that is also looking for a top around the 13,000. I suggest trading to these levels and exit and wait for the next set up either long or short. Elliott Wave I don't know if we are in a bullish market or a bear market rally Strategy: Trade to 30,000 and exit long trade Analyst Peter Mathers TradingLounge™   
×
×
  • Create New...