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Technical Tuesday


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25 October 2022

Spot Gold

Gold has provided a partial rebound from oversold territory over the last week, although the longer-term downtrend remains firmly intact.

The small-bodied candles fading the rebound suggest weak momentum on the move lower right now. In turn we are waiting for further gains on the commodity before looking for new short entry positions, provided that the major high at 1735 remains unbroken resistance.

102522_SpotGold.png

 

Brent Crude Oil

Circled red we see a bullish price reversal suggesting an end to the pullback from the recent high and trend line break. Unfortunately, the expected gains to follow have not manifested with the price of brent crude tracking sideways in the very near term.

Traders who are long might still consider using a close below 8850 as a stop loss consideration while targeting the move back towards the high at 9800.

102522_BCO.png

 

 

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Our weekly technical report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

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01 November 2022

Spot Gold

Gold has started another partial rebound, although the longer-term downtrend remains firmly intact.

We are waiting for further gains on the commodity before looking for new short entry positions on a reversal closer to the 1680 level, provided that the major high at 1735 remains unbroken resistance.

In this scenario we would again be targeting a move back towards the 1625 support level.

110122_SpotGold.png

 

 

 

Brent Crude Oil

The bullish reversal (circled red) highlighted last week has resulted in modest gains so far for brent crude oil.

9800 remains our longer-term upside target from the move. Traders who are long might consider tightening their respective stops to a close below the 9215 level, to ensure at least a break-even trade scenario while in search for further gains.

110122_BCO.png

 

 

 

 

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Our weekly technical report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

 

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  • 1 month later...

06 December 2022

Spot Gold

The price of gold did extend its move higher reaching our 1805 resistance target before finding resistance and once again starting to retrace.

The moving averages suggest keeping a long bias to trades on the commodity. We are waiting for the current pullback to end with a bullish candle stick pattern before looking to find long entry once again. This is provided that the pullback does not extend past (close below) the 1735 support level. In this scenario, 1805 provides the initial upside resistance target, a break of which would further target the 1875 level.

120622_SpotGold.png

 

Brent Crude Oil

The price of brent crude oil could not break resistance at 8770 and has instead retraced back to support between levels 8220 and 8080.

It appears time now for the commodity price to either break or bounce off the 8080-support level.

A close below this level would consider a downside breakout and target a move to 7630.

A bullish candle stick reversal (before a downside break occurs) would instead target a move back to 8770, while a close below the reversal low could be used as a stop loss indication in this scenario.

120622_BCO.png

 

 

 

 

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Our weekly technical report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

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13 December 2022

Spot Gold

The price of gold since breaking above the 200-day simple moving average has moved into a consolidation between levels 1765 (support) and 1810 (resistance). The lay of the moving averages continues to suggest a long bias to trades on the commodity right now.

Traders looking for long entry might prefer to wait for a bullish reversal off range support or upside break of range resistance. A reversal would target a retest of the 1810 level, while a breakout would suggest 1875 a further upside target from the move.

Only on a move below the 1735 support level would we start to reconsider our favoured trend bias on gold right now.

121322_SpotGold.png

 

Brent Crude Oil

A break of the 8080-support level last week, saw the price of brent crude moving to our next support target of 7630. The price is currently rebounding off this support level and from oversold territory.

The longer-term trend bias for oil remains down despite the short term rebound underway. Traders looking to short the commodity might prefer to see the rebound end with a bearish price reversal before the 8390-resistance level.

Only if the rebound can take the crude price back above the 8770-resistance level will we reconsider our trend bias on the commodity.

121322_BrentCrudeOil.png

 

 

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Our weekly technical report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

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  • 4 weeks later...

10 January 2023

Spot Gold

The price of gold has continued its uptrend at the start of the year. The 1875 resistance level is currently being tested. The lay of the moving averages confirm the uptrend, although the stochastic oscillator suggests the price to be overbought at present.

Our preference is to look for a pullback from overbought territory towards the 1820 for long entry. Alternatively, a close above the 1875 could also provide a long entry opportunity with 1980 a longer-term upside resistance target.

Should either of these scenarios present themselves we will update our guidance with stop loss considerations.

011023_SpotGold.png

 

Brent Crude Oil

The price of brent crude remains in a longer-term downtrend. This downtrend will only be reassessed should we see a break of the confluence of trend line and horizontal resistance at 8770.

For now, trend followers might prefer keeping a short bias to trades with 7540 and 7100 respective downside support targets. The commodity does however trade in oversold territory at present. In turn short entry might be found into a rebound from oversold territory, provided that the 8770-resistance level remains unbroken.

 

011023_BCO.png

 

 

 

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Our weekly technical report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

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17 January 2023

Spot Gold

The price of gold has continued its uptrend at the start of the year. The 1875 resistance level has now been broken (confirmed with multiple closes above). The lay of the moving averages continue to confirm the uptrend, although the stochastic oscillator suggests the price to be overbought at present.

Our preference is to look for a pullback from overbought territory towards either the 1875 or 1820 for long entry. 1980 provides a longer-term upside resistance target.

We are not looking to short gold from current levels (even though overbought), in respect of the underlying trend bias.

 

011723_SpotGold.pngSource: IG charts

 

 

Brent Crude Oil

The price of brent crude remains in a longer-term downtrend. This downtrend will only be reassessed should we see a break of the confluence of trend line and horizontal resistance at 8770.

The commodity has been rebounding from oversold over the last week. Short entry might consider should the current rebound end (before the 8770-resistance level) with a bearish price reversal. In this scenario, 7760 becomes the initial support target from the move, while a close above either the reversal high or 8770 level might be used as a stop loss indication.

Should the rebound not end with a bearish price reversal, and instead we see gains extend to close above the 8770 level, we would reassess our trend bias to trades on the commodity.

011723_BCO.pngSource: IG charts

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24 January 2023

Spot Gold

The price of gold has continued its uptrend from the start of the year and is inching closer towards our 1980 resistance target. The lay of the moving averages continue to confirm the uptrend, although the stochastic oscillator suggests the price to be overbought at present.

Our preference continues to be that of waiting for a pullback from overbought territory for long entry. A buyable pullback would be considered towards either the 1905 or 1875 levels. 1980 remains our longer-term upside resistance target.

We are not looking to short gold from current levels (even though overbought), in respect of the underlying trend bias.

012423_SpotGold.png

 

 

 

Brent Crude Oil

The price of brent crude is currently testing resistance at the 8770. The move to test this high sees a bullish crossover of the 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (red and green lines). The price does however still trade below the 200-day simple moving average (blue) and is in overbought territory.

The ambiguity of the technical indications suggests keeping a market neutral positioning on oil right now.

To consider long trades, we would like to see further gains on the commodity, before looking for entry on the first pullback from a short term high.

To consider short positions we would like to see the price failing at current levels (around 8770), highlighted by a long bodied red candle. In this scenario, a close above the reversal high would be used as a stop loss indication for the trade, while targeting a move lower towards the 7760-support level.

012423_BrentCrudeOil.png

 

 

 

 

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Our weekly technical report is compiled by in-house senior market analyst, Shaun Murison.

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