Jump to content

Top Events: BOE, ECB, & RBA Rate Decisions; Canada Jobs Report; US NFP


Recommended Posts

Hand moves wooden cubes and changes the letters from January to February.

02/01 Tuesday | 03:30 GMT | AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of Australia will take note of the fact that inflation pressures and expectations remain elevated, and a rebounding labor market is expected to help keep growth tilted higher for the foreseeable future. Similarly, they will likely zero out their QE program. The current Australian unemployment rate of 4.6% is quickly approaching the RBA’s 2022 year-end forecast of 4.2%. These factors point to an aggressive RBA this year – but no rate hikes are imminent.


According to Australia overnight index swaps (OIS), the first 25-bps rate hike is anticipated for July (54% chance). A second rate hike is expected in September (61% chance) and a third rate hike anticipated in December (64% chance). Any commentary that drags forward rate hike odds will prove beneficial for the Australian Dollar, as the RBA closes the policy gap with more hawkish central banks like the Federal Reserve.

02/03 Thursday | 12:00 GMT | GBP Bank of England Rate Decision
With UK inflation rates at their highest level in a decade and accumulating evidence that the labor market is steadily improving, both Bank of England policymakers and rates markets believe that more policy tightening is ahead. Rates markets are discounting February 2022 as the most likely period for when rates will rise next, with an 98% chance of a 25-bps rate hike; this is an increase from 66% at the start of January. Moreover, rates markets have discounted a fourth rate hike in 2022, up from three at the start of 2022. A BOE rate hike this week aligns neatly with the release of the Monetary Policy Committee’s next iteration of the Quarterly Inflation Report (QIR). The British Pound should remain well-supported around an increasingly hawkish BOE.

02/03 Thursday | 12:45 GMT | EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision & Press Conference
ECB policymakers have been beating the same drum for the past several months: no rate hikes are coming in 2022. The final policy meeting of 2021 noted that the Governing Council believed that “monetary accommodation is still needed for inflation to stabilise at the 2% inflation target over the medium term.” ECB President Christine Lagarde has called the current rise in inflation as a “hump.” Inflation data this week is showing that price pressures are not pulling back as quickly as anticipated, however. Rates markets are pricing in an 89% chance of the first 10-bps rate hike to arrive in July 2022. Nevertheless, Euro rallies may be providing a selling opportunity as ECB rate hike odds fall back, in line with policymakers’ commentary.

02/04 Friday | 13:30 GMT | CAD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (Jan)
A surge in COVID-19 omicron variant infections coupled with increasing protests about mandatory vaccinations may have hindered the Canadian labor market at the start of 2022. According to a Bloomberg News survey, the Canadian economy lost -117.5K jobs in January after adding +54.7K jobs in December. The Canadian unemployment rate is expected to jump considerably, from 5.9% to 6.2%. But with risk appetite starting to stabilize and oil prices continuing to press higher, any weakness seen in the Canadian Dollar around a weak January labor report may prove to be a ‘buy the dip’ opportunity.

02/04 Friday | 13:30 GMT | USD Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate (Jan)
Like in Canada, the spread of the COVID-19 omicron variant appears to have weighed on the US labor market. Notably, US jobless claims have ticked higher every week through January, and alongside declining PMI readings, a weaker US jobs reading is expected. According to a Bloomberg News survey, forecasters are looking for jobs growth of +153K while the unemployment rate (U3) is anticipated to hold at an impressive 3.9%. Meanwhile, the US labor force participation rate is due to stay on hold at a still-meager 61.9%. Wage growth is expected to remain robust, at +5.2% y/y in January from +4.7% y/y in December.

Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator (January 2022)
Chart of Atlanta jobs growth calculator from 1980 to 2020

Chart of Atlanta jobs growth calculator from 1980 to 2020

The US economy continues to inch closer towards achieving ‘full employment’ as experienced pre-pandemic. According to the Atlanta Fed Jobs Growth Calculator, the US economy needs +424K jobs growth per month over the next 12-months in order to return to the pre-pandemic US labor market of a 3.5% unemployment rate (U3) with a 63.4% labor force participation rate. Tastytrade

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Fears of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East weighed on market sentiment overnight, though a higher open is expected for the Dax. This flight to safety was triggered by news of an Iranian strike on Israel with hundreds of drones and missiles, raising concerns over potential Israeli retaliation. Safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar strengthened, though the Japanese yen weakened to a 30-year low against the dollar, highlighting that interest rates remain the primary market focus despite geopolitical risks. Oil prices dipped in Asian trading as the risk of Iranian retaliation was already priced in last week. While the US has stated it will not take part in a counter-offensive against Iran, the volatility index remains near five-month highs, reflecting heightened market nervousness. Any further oil price increases could add to inflationary pressures, complicating central banks' efforts to control rising consumer prices. This week, markets will closely watch US economic data releases, including retail sales and comments from Federal Reserve officials, for clues on the monetary policy outlook amid persistent inflation concerns. The US earnings season is also underway, with mixed results from major banks getting the season off to a lacklustre start.  
    • TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Daily Chart, Texas Instruments Inc., (TXN) Daily Chart TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION:  Minor wave 3 DIRECTION: Upside in wave 3.     DETAILS: We are looking at either an extension in Minor wav 3 in the making, or else we are still in wave {b} of 2. The most bearish scenario is the one where the move off the 140$ bottom is not a wave 1 and we are still in a larger degree correction.       TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4Hr Chart, Texas Instruments Inc., (TXN) 4Hr Chart TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   FUNCTION: Counter Trend MODE: Corrective STRUCTURE: Flat POSITION: Wave {ii}   DIRECTION: Bottom in wave (c) of {ii}. DETAILS: We are looking at a clear three wave move in wave {ii} with a bottom soon to be in place, looking for the beginning of MGM2 at 165$ to provide support.               Welcome to our TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge, where we delve into Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) using Elliott Wave Technical Analysis. Let's dissect the market dynamics on both the Daily Chart and the 4H Chart as of April 15, 2024. * TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Daily Chart* On the Daily Chart, our analysis reveals a trending market characterized by impulsive mode and motive structure, positioned in Minor wave 3. The direction indicates upside momentum in wave 3. However, we are considering two potential scenarios: either an extension in Minor wave 3 or still within wave {b} of 2. The most bearish scenario suggests that the move from the $140 bottom may not be a wave 1, implying a larger degree correction. * TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4hr Chart* Here, we observe a counter trend market marked by corrective mode and flat structure, positioned in Wave {ii}. The direction hints at a bottom forming in wave (c) of {ii}. Our analysis identifies a clear three-wave move in wave {ii}, with a bottom expected soon. We anticipate support to emerge around the beginning of MGM2 at $165.   Technical Analyst : Alessio Barretta   Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO Elliott Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge (1D Chart) Greetings, Our Elliott Wave analysis today updates the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO. We have identified that RIO may have completed the ((ii))-green wave at the 114.88 low, allowing the ((iii))-green wave to open up to push much higher. We will continuously monitor and update not only RIO but also the TOP 50 ASX Stocks and provide the best forecasts. ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO 1D Chart (Semilog Scale) Analysis Function: Major trend (Minor degree, red) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave ((iii))-green of Wave 3-red Details: The short-term outlook suggests that wave ((ii))-green appears to have completed around 114.88, and wave ((iii))-green is now unfolding to push higher. Maintaining a price level above 121.10 would be advantageous and also serves as a strong support for this perspective. Invalidation point: 102.51       ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO Elliott Wave Technical Analysis ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO 4-Hour Chart Analysis Function: Major trend (Minute degree, green) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave iii-blue of Wave (iii)-purple of Wave ((iii))-green Details: The shorter-term outlook indicates that wave ((iii))-green is currently unfolding to continue pushing higher. The immediate targets could be around 134.68 and 139.59, or even further. Maintaining above the level of 125.10 would be advantageous, serving as both a support level and strengthening the bullish perspective. Invalidation point: 114.88       Conclusion:   Our analysis, forecast of contextual trends, and short-term outlook for ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO aim to provide readers with insights into the current market trends and how to capitalize on them effectively. We offer specific price points that act as validation or invalidation signals for our wave count, enhancing the confidence in our perspective. By combining these factors, we strive to offer readers the most objective and professional perspective on market trends. Technical Analyst: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master’s Designation). Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
×
×
  • Create New...
us