Jump to content

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook: Turn Lower May Be Near

Recommended Posts


  • Corrective wedge in the works as bounce unfolds
  • Resistance via horizontal and trend-line in the vicinity
  • Sub-30k holds the next area of major support
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook: Turn Lower May Be Near

BTC/USD has recently found a bit of reprieve from selling, but that may be short-lived as the rise looks corrective in nature and resistance stands in the way. If the timing of the these events is to hold, we could see a downturn develop in the next few days.

The bounce from around 33k is taking on the shape of an ascending wedge, which in the context of a strong trend is viewed as corrective price action. Adding to the bearish case is resistance in near confluence.

The trend-line running down from the November high is currently getting tested while the low from Jan 10 at 39558 was nearly tagged over the last 24 hours. If these levels are to prove problematic, then today or tomorrow could kick off another round of selling.

To trigger the corrective pattern and form a lower-low off the Jan 24, a break below 36631 is needed. This will break the recent sequence of higher highs and higher lows that make up the corrective formation.

The first meaningful level of support is the recent low at 32950, but the really big stuff doesn’t arrive until under 30k. From around that level down to 28600 are several important lows dating to early last year. We will have to see how price action looks at that juncture, should we see it, but that could help provide a more meaningful low. Or not.

From a tactical standpoint, waiting for the wedge to break down below 36631 before increasing a bearish bias. It is possible we see the wedge force a squeeze above the noted resistance levels, but if this is the case then BTC/USD will find itself around major resistance surrounding 40k and that may then put in a ceiling within the context of a downtrend.

If we see the drop to the big support dating to early last year, then those looking to look to play for a sharp bounce may find risk/reward appealing, and backing off a bearish bias then may warranted.



btc/usd daily chart


btc/usd 4-hr chart

BTC/USD Chart by TradingView

Resources for Forex Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.


Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst. 2nd Feb 2022, DailyFX

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    • Most Online
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Joined 08/02/23 10:46
  • Posts

    • Did Powell cap interest rate expectations and in turn revive the Dow and other risk benchmarks? More likely, fed rate expectations fueled by last week’s strong data run has likely find a natural equilibrium; but that means risk trends and the Dollar need a new guiding fundamental light to render tentative breaks into viable trends.              
    • I don't think the IG spreadsheet is supported anymore and like you have discovered it is tricky and time-consuming to get working. I've lots of experience using Excel for financial markets/trading purposes as well as using the IG API. I've built an Excel Add-in which makes using Excel with IG much easier, you don't need to deal with DDE, RTD etc. you can just use standard Excel formulas: https://www.excelpricefeed.com/ I think Excel is great for analysing prices, backtesting, modelling, generating signales etc. but I would not suggest that you try to use it for actual trading. Andy
    • Gold price and oil price rally, as lumber price drops back Gold and oil have managed to push higher, recovering some of last week’s losses. Meanwhile, lumber has fallen again. Source: Bloomberg  Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 08 February 2023  Gold pushes higher After the steep losses of Thursday and Friday, the price has attempted to edge higher. A higher low could be in the process of forming, though if the price breaches $1861 this view would be cancelled out. This would then bring the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) into view, and may well result in additional losses down towards $1800. A weaker US dollar might provide hope of a bounce that could set up a move back towards $1950. Source: ProRealTime WTI moves back above 50-day MA US crude oil has clawed back Friday’s losses, rebounding from the lows of the week. Having held the $72.80 area that was also support in early January, a move back towards the 100-day SMA could be in the offing. Above this, the January highs around $82 act as possible resistance. Having prompted a reversal that, for the moment, cancels out a bearish view, buyers will want to see a move above $84 if they are to lay the foundations of a move towards the 200-day SMA. A drop back below $72 is needed to revive the bearish view which seemed so strong on Friday, and would then open the way to $70 and lower. Source: ProRealTime Lumber losses accelerate After another day of losses, a lower high for lumber could be in place. A reversal from below the 200-day SMA would seem to bolster the bearish case, especially since the price failed to break above 54,000. This had acted as resistance back in October as well. Further declines target the 100-day and 50-day SMAs, before moving to the January low around 36,400. Buyers will need to see a move above 54,000 and the 200-day SMA to suggest that a more bullish view prevails. Source: ProRealTime
  • Create New...