Jump to content

GBP/USD Forecast: Bearish GBP Bets Accumulate Ahead of UK CPI


Recommended Posts

POUND STERLING (GBP/USD), UK CPI ANALYSIS:

  • UK CPI expected to be 5.4% for January - same as the December figure
  • Hedge funds and other large speculators cut longs, increase shorts ahead of UK CPI
  • GBP/USD key technical levels analysed and discussed
EUR/USD Outlook - Testing 1.1300, Driven by Ongoing US Dollar Strength

UK INFLATION PRINT POSES POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE RISK FOR THE POUND

Inflation continues to garner attention as policy normalization takes effect in the UK, with a 100% probability of a 25 basis point hike (0.25%) anticipated for March via rates markets. However, Wednesday’s CPI print is forecasted to be 5.4% - the same as the month before - and could provide dovish members of the BoE with a reason to calm lofty rate hiking expectations.

Essentially, a higher than expected CPI figure fits the current narrative and is unlikely to affect the Pound in any material way. Conversely, a print in line or lower than expectations could see the Pound trade lower as market participants re-evaluate the pace and duration of future rate hikes. In addition, the US dollar is likely to remain supported as long as the situation in Ukraine continues without a peaceful resolution.

GBP/USD Forecast: Bearish GBP Bets Accumulate Ahead of UK CPI

Customize and filter live economic data via our DaliyFX economic calendar

LARGE SPECULATORS INCREASE SHORTS, CUT LONGS

The latest sentiment data from the Commitment of Traders (CoT) report reveals continued divergence between reported GBP longs and shorts as the cumulative net-short positioning increases.

Essentially, hedge funds and large speculators could be positioning themselves for a decline in Sterling ahead of the UK inflation data on Wednesday.

Pound Sterling Positioning (Large Speculators/Hedge Funds)

GBP/USD Forecast: Bearish GBP Bets Accumulate Ahead of UK CPI

Source: Refinitive via CFTC data compiled from the CoT report

 

GBP/USD KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS AND ANALYSIS

The last fortnight of trading saw GBP/USD largely trade between 1.3515 and 1.3600 (opening and closing levels) however, today’s early price action reveals a move lower could be on the cards.

Price action failed to trade and hold above the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) and recently broke below 1.3515. Bear in mind that the IG chart makes use of a Sunday candle meaning the SMA varies slightly form chart packages not showing Sundays. A further bearish signal appears in the form of a bearish crossover as the 20 SMA looks on the verge of crossing below the 50 SMA. Keep an eye on today’s close.

A close and hold below 1.3515 with a confirmed bearish crossover brings 1.3470 and 1.3410/00 into focus as the most relevant levels of support; while a close above 1.3515 could mark the resumption of the recent sideways movement whereby resistance appears at the 1.3600 psychological level.

Daily GBP/USD Chart

GBP/USD Forecast: Bearish GBP Bets Accumulate Ahead of UK CPI

Source: IG, prepared by Richard Snow

 

 

 

--- Written by Richard Snow for DailyFX.com. 14th Feb 2022

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Hi @KoketsoIG, I hope you are well. Were you able to get any further information from the desk? WBR
    • Bitcoin halving, a pivotal event in the cryptocurrency world, occurs roughly every four years, reducing the reward for mining new blocks by 50%. This mechanism is encoded in Bitcoin's blockchain software to regulate the issuance of new bitcoins and ensure the total supply does not exceed 21 million coins. For traders, Bitcoin halving is significant because it diminishes the supply of new coins, potentially leading to price appreciation if demand remains robust. Historically, the months surrounding halving events have seen rapid increases in Bitcoin's price, fueled by the anticipation of reduced supply and increased scarcity. However, the impact of each halving on BTC price is not guaranteed. Market dynamics, such as demand fluctuations and competition from other cryptocurrencies, play a crucial role in determining price movements post-halving. As the cryptocurrency market matures, predicting price reactions becomes increasingly complex. Bitcoin halvings are integral to the network's design, incentivizing miners to participate in transaction verification by rewarding them with newly minted bitcoins. For every 210,000 blocks, the reward per block halves ensures a controlled and predictable issuance schedule. The rationale behind Bitcoin halvings has been subject to speculation. Some believe they were designed to stimulate early adoption and network growth by distributing coins more rapidly. Others view halvings as a deflationary measure, safeguarding against inflationary risks inherent in traditional fiat currencies. Critics argue that Bitcoin's finite supply and halving mechanism encourage hoarding behavior, hindering its adoption as a medium of exchange. Additionally, the concentration of wealth among early adopters has drawn comparisons to pyramid schemes, raising questions about Bitcoin's long-term viability. Despite the controversies, Bitcoin halvings continue to shape the cryptocurrency landscape, driving conversations about scarcity, value, and the future of decentralized finance. Understanding the mechanics and implications of these events is essential for navigating the dynamic world of cryptocurrencies effectively.
    • USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day Chart,     U.S.Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Day Chart   USD/CHF Elliott Wave Technical Analysis DXY Elliott Wave Technical Analysis                           FUNCTION: Trend                           MODE: impulsive                         STRUCTURE: blue wave 5                         POSITION: black wave 1                       DIRECTION NEXT LOWER   DEGREES: black wave 2                       DETAILS:blue wave 4 of 1 looking  completed at 0.90085,now  blue wave 5 of 1 is in play   . Wave Cancel invalid level: 0.88948   The USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis for the day chart provides insights into the potential price movements of the U.S. Dollar against the Swiss Franc, utilizing Elliott Wave principles for technical analysis.   Identified as a "Trend," the analysis suggests that the prevailing market direction aligns with the broader trend, indicating potential opportunities for traders to participate in the direction of the trend.   Described as "Impulsive" in mode, the analysis indicates that the current market movement exhibits characteristics of an impulsive wave pattern. This implies that the price is likely advancing in the direction of the trend with strong momentum, potentially offering trading opportunities for trend-following strategies.   The "STRUCTURE" is labeled as "blue wave 5," providing clarity on the current phase of the Elliott Wave cycle. This helps traders understand the stage of the trend and anticipate potential reversal points or continuation patterns.   Positioned as "black wave 1," the analysis highlights the specific phase of the Elliott Wave cycle within the current trend. This indicates that the market has completed a wave cycle and is potentially starting a new wave cycle in the direction of the trend.   In the "DIRECTION NEXT LOWER DEGREES" section, the analysis mentions "black wave 2," suggesting the potential direction for the next lower-degree wave within the Elliott Wave cycle. This implies that the market may experience a corrective wave before continuing its upward movement.   The "DETAILS" section notes that "blue wave 4 of 1 looking completed at 0.90085, now blue wave 5 of 1 is in play." This suggests that the corrective wave within the current wave cycle has potentially ended, and the market is now resuming its upward movement. Additionally, the wave cancel level is identified at 0.88948, providing a reference point for invalidating the wave count. Traders can utilize this information to assess potential trading opportunities and manage risk effectively.       USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4 Hour Chart,     U.S.Dollar/Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) 4 Hour Chart   USD/CHF Elliott Wave Technical Analysis DXY Elliott Wave Technical Analysis                           FUNCTION: Trend                           MODE: impulsive                         STRUCTURE: blue wave 5                         POSITION: black wave 1                       DIRECTION NEXT HIGHER   DEGREES:blue wave 5(may started)                         DETAILS:blue wave 4 of 1 looking  completed at 0.90085,now  blue wave 5 of 1 is in play   . Wave Cancel invalid level: 0.88948   The USD/CHF Elliott Wave Analysis for the 4-hour chart provides insights into the potential price movements of the U.S. Dollar against the Swiss Franc, employing Elliott Wave principles for technical analysis.   Identified as a "Trend," the analysis suggests that the prevailing market direction aligns with the broader trend, indicating potential opportunities for traders to participate in the direction of the trend.   Described as "Impulsive" in mode, the analysis indicates that the current market movement exhibits characteristics of an impulsive wave pattern. This implies that the price is likely advancing in the direction of the trend with strong momentum, potentially offering trading opportunities for trend-following strategies.   The "STRUCTURE" is labeled as "blue wave 5," providing clarity on the current phase of the Elliott Wave cycle. This helps traders understand the stage of the trend and anticipate potential reversal points or continuation patterns.   Positioned as "black wave 1," the analysis highlights the specific phase of the Elliott Wave cycle within the current trend. This indicates that the market has completed a wave cycle and is potentially starting a new wave cycle in the direction of the trend.   In the "DIRECTION NEXT HIGHER DEGREES" section, the analysis mentions "blue wave 5 (may have started)," suggesting the potential direction for the next higher-degree wave within the Elliott Wave cycle. This implies that the market may continue its upward movement, supporting the overall bullish trend.   The "DETAILS" section notes that "blue wave 4 of 1 looking completed at 0.90085, now blue wave 5 of 1 is in play." This suggests that the corrective wave within the current wave cycle has potentially ended, and the market is now resuming its upward movement. Additionally, the wave cancel level is identified at 0.88948, providing a reference point for invalidating the wave count. Traders can utilize this information to assess potential trading opportunities and manage risk effectively.   Technical Analyst : Malik Awais   Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!      
×
×
  • Create New...
us