Jump to content

Oil prices reach $100, gas and aluminium prices unsteady due to Ukraine and Russia conflict


ArvinIG

Recommended Posts

The catastrophic impact on the energy and commodity markets will start to unfold as Russia is a major producer of oil, gas, aluminium, and wheat.

Russia is a major producer of gas, oil, aluminium, and wheat.
Source: Bloomberg
 
 

Energy prices are under the spotlight this week as the Ukraine and Russia crisis escalates each day.

Oil prices skyrocketed after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order to send “peacekeeping forces” to the two breakaway areas of Ukraine, a signal viewed as the first move for a Ukraine invasion. The catastrophic impact on the energy and commodity market will start to unfold as Russia is a major producer of oil, gas, aluminium, and wheat.

Brent Crude: New 7-year-high

Crude oil prices have rallied to near $100 a barrel, and US’s sanctions on Russian oil exports will only exacerbate the supply issue and push the prices higher.

  • Brent Crude was up 3% on Tuesday with a new record of $96.93. Both short-term and mid-term momentum is poised to a higher outlook as 20 and 50 days MA has painted a steep straight line pointing north
  • Current support is at $94.09. Next support can be found from 20 days, moving at an average of $91.83
  • Weekly charts show that the long-term trend line will continue since April 2020
  • For buyers waiting for an entry point once the price pulls back, the RSI dictator suggest to keep close eye on the level around 41.

Brent Crude Daily Chart

Brent crude daily chartSource: IG
Brent Crude Weekly ChartSource: IG

Natural Gas: 10-month long uptrend remain valid

Natural gas prices pulled back to its 100 days moving average after three straight days’ rise to the resistance level at 4670. However, long-term uptrend looks more likely to stay as the pathway since April 2021 from the weekly chart remain valid.

Next support can be found at 4335 before the 50 days moving average come to the fore. The level of 4670 will exercise as pressure again once the price of Natural gas bounced back.

Natural Gas Daily Chart

Natural Gas Daily ChartSource: IG

Natural Gas Weekly Chart

Natural Gas Weekly ChartSource: IG

Aluminium: 11% up this month

The price of Aluminium did not stop breaking records this week. The new record for the key construction commodity was created on Tuesday at 3379.6, which is already 11% higher than its price on the 1st of February.

The recent high from February 10th, of 3334 will turn to be the current support while 3301 is another notable level. In terms of near-term targets, the upper boundary of the moving tunnel in between $3431-$3443 should be seen in the coming days.

Aluminium Daily Chart

Aluminum Daily ChartSource: IG

Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.

Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Australia
25 February 2022

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Fears of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East weighed on market sentiment overnight, though a higher open is expected for the Dax. This flight to safety was triggered by news of an Iranian strike on Israel with hundreds of drones and missiles, raising concerns over potential Israeli retaliation. Safe-haven assets like gold and the US dollar strengthened, though the Japanese yen weakened to a 30-year low against the dollar, highlighting that interest rates remain the primary market focus despite geopolitical risks. Oil prices dipped in Asian trading as the risk of Iranian retaliation was already priced in last week. While the US has stated it will not take part in a counter-offensive against Iran, the volatility index remains near five-month highs, reflecting heightened market nervousness. Any further oil price increases could add to inflationary pressures, complicating central banks' efforts to control rising consumer prices. This week, markets will closely watch US economic data releases, including retail sales and comments from Federal Reserve officials, for clues on the monetary policy outlook amid persistent inflation concerns. The US earnings season is also underway, with mixed results from major banks getting the season off to a lacklustre start.  
    • TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Daily Chart, Texas Instruments Inc., (TXN) Daily Chart TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION:  Minor wave 3 DIRECTION: Upside in wave 3.     DETAILS: We are looking at either an extension in Minor wav 3 in the making, or else we are still in wave {b} of 2. The most bearish scenario is the one where the move off the 140$ bottom is not a wave 1 and we are still in a larger degree correction.       TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4Hr Chart, Texas Instruments Inc., (TXN) 4Hr Chart TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   FUNCTION: Counter Trend MODE: Corrective STRUCTURE: Flat POSITION: Wave {ii}   DIRECTION: Bottom in wave (c) of {ii}. DETAILS: We are looking at a clear three wave move in wave {ii} with a bottom soon to be in place, looking for the beginning of MGM2 at 165$ to provide support.               Welcome to our TXN Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge, where we delve into Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) using Elliott Wave Technical Analysis. Let's dissect the market dynamics on both the Daily Chart and the 4H Chart as of April 15, 2024. * TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Daily Chart* On the Daily Chart, our analysis reveals a trending market characterized by impulsive mode and motive structure, positioned in Minor wave 3. The direction indicates upside momentum in wave 3. However, we are considering two potential scenarios: either an extension in Minor wave 3 or still within wave {b} of 2. The most bearish scenario suggests that the move from the $140 bottom may not be a wave 1, implying a larger degree correction. * TXN Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4hr Chart* Here, we observe a counter trend market marked by corrective mode and flat structure, positioned in Wave {ii}. The direction hints at a bottom forming in wave (c) of {ii}. Our analysis identifies a clear three-wave move in wave {ii}, with a bottom expected soon. We anticipate support to emerge around the beginning of MGM2 at $165.   Technical Analyst : Alessio Barretta   Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO Elliott Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge (1D Chart) Greetings, Our Elliott Wave analysis today updates the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO. We have identified that RIO may have completed the ((ii))-green wave at the 114.88 low, allowing the ((iii))-green wave to open up to push much higher. We will continuously monitor and update not only RIO but also the TOP 50 ASX Stocks and provide the best forecasts. ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO Elliott Wave Technical Analysis   ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO 1D Chart (Semilog Scale) Analysis Function: Major trend (Minor degree, red) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave ((iii))-green of Wave 3-red Details: The short-term outlook suggests that wave ((ii))-green appears to have completed around 114.88, and wave ((iii))-green is now unfolding to push higher. Maintaining a price level above 121.10 would be advantageous and also serves as a strong support for this perspective. Invalidation point: 102.51       ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO Elliott Wave Technical Analysis ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO 4-Hour Chart Analysis Function: Major trend (Minute degree, green) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave iii-blue of Wave (iii)-purple of Wave ((iii))-green Details: The shorter-term outlook indicates that wave ((iii))-green is currently unfolding to continue pushing higher. The immediate targets could be around 134.68 and 139.59, or even further. Maintaining above the level of 125.10 would be advantageous, serving as both a support level and strengthening the bullish perspective. Invalidation point: 114.88       Conclusion:   Our analysis, forecast of contextual trends, and short-term outlook for ASX: RIO TINTO LIMITED – RIO aim to provide readers with insights into the current market trends and how to capitalize on them effectively. We offer specific price points that act as validation or invalidation signals for our wave count, enhancing the confidence in our perspective. By combining these factors, we strive to offer readers the most objective and professional perspective on market trends. Technical Analyst: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master’s Designation). Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
×
×
  • Create New...
us