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Oil prices reach $100, gas and aluminium prices unsteady due to Ukraine and Russia conflict


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The catastrophic impact on the energy and commodity markets will start to unfold as Russia is a major producer of oil, gas, aluminium, and wheat.

Russia is a major producer of gas, oil, aluminium, and wheat.
Source: Bloomberg

Energy prices are under the spotlight this week as the Ukraine and Russia crisis escalates each day.

Oil prices skyrocketed after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an order to send “peacekeeping forces” to the two breakaway areas of Ukraine, a signal viewed as the first move for a Ukraine invasion. The catastrophic impact on the energy and commodity market will start to unfold as Russia is a major producer of oil, gas, aluminium, and wheat.

Brent Crude: New 7-year-high

Crude oil prices have rallied to near $100 a barrel, and US’s sanctions on Russian oil exports will only exacerbate the supply issue and push the prices higher.

  • Brent Crude was up 3% on Tuesday with a new record of $96.93. Both short-term and mid-term momentum is poised to a higher outlook as 20 and 50 days MA has painted a steep straight line pointing north
  • Current support is at $94.09. Next support can be found from 20 days, moving at an average of $91.83
  • Weekly charts show that the long-term trend line will continue since April 2020
  • For buyers waiting for an entry point once the price pulls back, the RSI dictator suggest to keep close eye on the level around 41.

Brent Crude Daily Chart

Brent crude daily chartSource: IG
Brent Crude Weekly ChartSource: IG

Natural Gas: 10-month long uptrend remain valid

Natural gas prices pulled back to its 100 days moving average after three straight days’ rise to the resistance level at 4670. However, long-term uptrend looks more likely to stay as the pathway since April 2021 from the weekly chart remain valid.

Next support can be found at 4335 before the 50 days moving average come to the fore. The level of 4670 will exercise as pressure again once the price of Natural gas bounced back.

Natural Gas Daily Chart

Natural Gas Daily ChartSource: IG

Natural Gas Weekly Chart

Natural Gas Weekly ChartSource: IG

Aluminium: 11% up this month

The price of Aluminium did not stop breaking records this week. The new record for the key construction commodity was created on Tuesday at 3379.6, which is already 11% higher than its price on the 1st of February.

The recent high from February 10th, of 3334 will turn to be the current support while 3301 is another notable level. In terms of near-term targets, the upper boundary of the moving tunnel in between $3431-$3443 should be seen in the coming days.

Aluminium Daily Chart

Aluminum Daily ChartSource: IG

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Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Australia
25 February 2022

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