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ArvinIG

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  1. Traders can implement a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week; the four-hour chart can be ideal for Forex traders looking to trade around the clock and we outline a full plan based around Price Action. Source: Bloomberg Forex Market trend Price Speculation All of the sudden, the world has gotten very small; and life is moving faster than ever before. The internet presents a lot of benefits to the human species; but time management is not one of them. As competition for page views, viewer numbers, and attendance continues to heat up, very little in this life emphasis a slow and steady approach. But to the trader, in many cases, that is the best way to go about speculation in markets: Slow, steady, and consistent. But being there as a trader, and getting there as a new speculator are completely different markets. In this article, we’re going to outline a complete trading plan that will take less than four hours of a trader’s time each week. And further, this is an approach that can be focused on longer-term moves, and swings. If you have a day job, or any other pre-existing commitments that limits your time on charts, this is an approach that can offer quite a few benefits. The center of the approach The four-hour chart plays a special role in the FX market. Most equity markets are open between eight and nine hours each day, and as such, the four-hour chart might take on less importance. After all, a four-hour chart just shows two bars for each trading session, so traders might as well just look at the daily chart. But in the Forex market, the four-hour time frame takes on special importance. The market never closes, and traders are literally Trading the World. The four-hour candle represents half of each geographic trading session. Each of these sessions can take on markedly different tones, and that is where traders can look for potential opportunities. In the FX market, traders are truly ‘Trading the World’ Source: Trading the World Traders can use the price movements and gyrations on these four-hour charts to analyse markets and find potential pockets of opportunity. Watch for the close of each four-hour candle that you can. Using the New York close to define ‘financial time’ means that we’re seeing candles close at 5, 9, and 1 AM and PM (based on ET). If you’re using Central Time, that’s 4, 8, and 12 AM/PM while Pacific Time is 2, 6, and 10 AM/PM. If you’re busy at the time, mobile applications can generally offer you what you need to perform the analysis at the close of each of these candles. Traders can then take a ten-minute block of time upon the close of each of these four-hour candles to look for potential trade setups, while also using this as an opportunity to manage risk. If the trader is awake for four of the six four-hour candles that form each day that would mean that the trader would need approximately 40 minutes per day to analyse charts. If time permits, an additional 10-15 minutes can be used at or around the daily close. The total time commitment required is 40-50 minutes each day, for a total of 200-250 minutes per week (240 minutes is 4 hours). Use price action to locate the strongest trends Trends in markets can be easily graded and seen with price action… by simply looking for charts to make progressively higher-highs, and higher-lows (in the case of an uptrend), and lower-lows, and lower-highs (for downtrends). Price action can help traders locate the strongest trends In the article Price Action, an Introduction we look at a way that traders can grade trends without the use of any indicator at all, using just past prices. Traders want to look to trade in the direction of these trends; buying up-trends, and selling down-trends. But, is it enough to just buy up-trends or sell down-trends and ‘hope’ that they continue? No. Traders can use price action to appropriate their entries into these positions. Use price action to buy up-trends cheaply, and sell down-trends expensively Once a strong trend has been located, the trader can then look to plot their entry by looking for a ‘trigger’ into the position via price action. Once again, traders want to look to efficiently buy up-trends when price is cheap, or near support. We looked at how traders can find this support in the article, Price Action Swings. Traders can look to buy up-trends after a recent swing low Traders can look for additional confirmation of the entry by looking to the price action candles that form at or around those swings. We looked at quite a few of these triggers in Trading Bearish Reversals (for down-trends), and The Hammer Trigger for Bullish Reversals (for up-trends). Traders can look for bullish triggers at or around recently printed new lows Source: The Hammer Trigger for Bullish Reversals Use stops and limits to enforce favourable risk-reward ratios One of the main premises of our price action education is that future prices are unpredictable, and as such, there is no such thing as a ‘holy grail’ or ‘can’t lose’ strategy. By adding a stop and limit, and letting the trade work – the trader eliminates the possibility of making a knee-jerk reaction that they may end up regretting. It also enforces a favorable risk-reward ratio, and puts traders in the most promising spot to avoid the number one mistake that Forex traders make. Trade management Since traders are looking at their charts for each four-hour bar, they have built-in trade management for each position that they take on. Traders can use the close of each four-hour candle as an opportunity to adjust stops (particularly the break-even stop), or to take profits while also looking to trigger new positions. Traders can take this a step further by trailing their stop in an effort to lock in gains in the event that the trend gets especially built-in. We looked at this premise in Trading Trends by Trailing Stops with Price Swings. Traders can lock up gains to maximize trends Source: The Hammer Trigger for Bullish Reversals James Stanley | Trading Instructor, DailyFX, New York City 29 September 2022
  2. Hi @hkd, Thank you for your post. You can have your P/L in GBP, you will need to be in your position tab on your Workspace. Then click on the tab filters and select P/L in GBP. P/L would be P/L in currency of the market and P/L GBP should be your base currency. I hope that it helps ! All the best - Arvin
  3. A brief examination of ASX lithium stocks, their advantages and drawbacks, and a rundown of the 10 best lithium stocks to watch in Australia this year. Source: Bloomberg Indices Shares Lithium Mining Electric vehicle ASX ASX lithium stocks: what you need to know Lithium is a silvery-white alkali metal, with special properties that make it extremely useful in the production of lithium-ion batteries that act as the power source for Electric Vehicles. Because lithium is both the least dense metal and least dense solid element, it is highly unlikely to be replaced in modern EVs by alternatives such as nickel. While nickel has been used in the past, it has 40% lower energy density, meaning more of the metal is required to create an EV battery. However, lithium’s chemical disadvantage is its inherent instability. Lithium is highly reactive and must be stored in an inert atmosphere or vacuum such as oil. This makes it expensive to produce, transport, and store. As the Electric Vehicle revolution gathers pace, by dint of the increasingly scarce and costly oil, or because of environmental concerns, lithium mining is likely to become ever more profitable in the long term. Of course, it does come with significant environmental concerns of its own, which the industry is taking steps to address. Best 10 ASX lithium stocks to watch 1) Pilbara Minerals (ASX: PLS) Pilbara Minerals is ‘ready for the global energy transformation,’ and well-positioned to be a low-cost, long-term sustainable lithium producer. It describes itself as the ‘leading ASX-listed pure-play lithium company, owning 100% of the world’s largest, independent hard-rock lithium operation.’ Its Pilgangoora mine in the Pilbara region produces both spodumene and tantalite concentrate, and it counts Ganfeng Lithium and General lithium as partners. Its long-term strategy is to become an ‘integrated lithium raw materials and chemicals supplier in the years to come,’ in an attempt to be a major player in the lithium supply chain, underpinned by increasing demand for clean energy technologies. 2) Core Lithium (ASX: CXO) Core Lithium is developing one of Australia’s most capital-efficient spodumene lithium projects, the Finniss Project in the Northern Territory. The prospector’s definitive feasibility study concluded that the mine has 173,000tpa of lithium concentrate, with a 10-year mine life. Managing Director Stephen Biggins ‘prime directive is to deliver first production of high-quality lithium concentrate from the Finniss Project this year in the midst of a very high lithium price and high operating margin environment.’ A key advantage is that the mine has ‘arguably the best supporting infrastructure and logistics chain to Asia of any Australian lithium project.’ It’s only 88km from Darwin Port, the closest port to Asia. 3) Piedmont Lithium (ASX: PLL) Piedmont Lithium aims to ‘develop a world-class integrated lithium business in the United States.’ It owns interests in the Carolina Tin Spodumene Belt in North Carolina, ‘the cradle of the lithium industry.’ The miner could become one of the lowest-cost producers of lithium hydroxide and is strategically placed to insert itself into the US electric vehicle supply chain. Alongside its partner Sayona, it’s also developing interests in Quebec. 4) Sayona Mining (ASX: SYA) Sayona Mining is an emerging lithium producer with projects in Quebec, Canada and Western Australia. It’s in a strategic partnership with Piedmont Lithium in Quebec, having acquired North American Lithium. And it plans to integrate nearby Authier and Tansim projects, as well as its 60% ownership of the Moblan project, to create a world-scale hub. The miner is ‘committed to downstream processing in Quebec to supply the fast-growing North American battery and EV market.’ And it also holds a large tenement portfolio in Western Australia for gold and lithium. 5) Ioneer (ASX: INR) Ioneer is expected to be the first new lithium chemical producer in the US in over 60 years. The miner owns a 100% interest in the Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-Boron project in Nevada, the only known lithium-boron deposit in North America, and one of two in the world. In its 2020 feasibility study, it confirmed the site as a world-class project with a globally significant deposit that could set it up as a major lithium supplier for decades. It’s signed a deal to supply NexTech batteries from the mine and has been invited by the US Department of Energy to begin due diligence for a key loan programme. Source: Bloomberg 6) Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) Mineral Resources operates a growing world-class portfolio of operations across multiple commodities but its core activities are iron ore and lithium mining throughout Western Australia and the Northern Territory. Key sites include Wodgina Lithium, which as the largest hard-rock lithium deposit in the world is expected to have a 30-year mine life. It operates the project in partnership with US giant Albemarle, and despite a production pause, is set to resume mining in Q3. It also owns 50% of the Mount Marion lithium project in partnership with Ganfeng Lithium. Its diversification into iron ore and partnerships with global players makes MIN a safer choice for risk-averse investors. 7) Liontown Resources (ASX: LTR) Liontown Resources aims to ‘find, develop and supply battery minerals required by the rapidly growing Electric Vehicle and Energy Storage industries.’ It controls two lithium deposits in Western Australia and is expanding its portfolio through additional exploration, partnerships, and acquisitions. Its cornerstone is the Kathleen Valley project, one of the world’s largest and highest-grade hard rock lithium deposits. The project is expected to supply 500,000 tonnes of 6% lithium oxide concentrate per year when production starts in 2024, with a mine life of 23 years. Its second project, Buldania, has over 15 million tonnes of 1% lithium oxide. 😎 Allkem (ASX: AKE) Allkem was formed from the merger of two lithium giants, Orocobre and Galaxy Resources last year. It now controls a global portfolio of diverse, high-quality lithium chemicals. Headquartered in Buenos Aires, it operates lithium projects across Argentina, Australia and Japan, with development underway to meet significant expected market growth. The company has partnerships with Toyota, the Jujuy provincial government and Prime Planet Energy & Solutions. And it plans to expand production 3-fold by 2026, mining 10% of the world’s lithium over the next decade. 9) Lake Resources (ASX: LKE) Lake Resources is a lithium developer which uses proprietary clean extraction technology to create high-purity battery quality lithium carbonate. Its tech partner, Lilac Solutions has designed a ‘benign water treatment’ which returns all water (brine) to the source without changing its chemistry, making it far more environmentally friendly than conventional brine evaporation or hard rock mining. Lilac is backed by the Bill Gates-led Breakthrough Energy Fund. LKE’s flagship Kachi project together with three other lithium brine projects in Argentina covers 2,200 square km in a prime location in the lithium triangle, where 40% of the world’s lithium is produced at the lowest cost. 10) AVZ Minerals (ASX: AVZ) AVZ Minerals is entirely focused on developing its Manono project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, potentially one of the world’s largest lithium-rich LCT pegmatite deposits. The miner’s objective is to leverage its DRC, financial and project development expertise to advance its 75% ownership of the project up the value curve. However, it’s facing a legal battle. Chinese Zijin Mining, the country’s largest gold miner, is claiming a 15% share of the project, which AVZ has called ‘spurious and immaterial.’ This issue has been running for four months now, though AVZ is ‘confident of a positive outcome.’ Source: Bloomberg How to trade or invest in ASX lithium stocks 1. Learn more about ASX lithium stocks 2. Find out how to trade or invest in ASX lithium stocks 3. Open an account 4. Place your trade You can open a position on ASX lithium stocks either through share trading or derivatives trading. Share trading means that you take direct ownership of the stock. By comparison, derivatives trading – such as CFD trading – allows you to speculate on the price movement of a company’s shares without actually taking ownership of them. For a complete breakdown of the benefits and drawbacks of each strategy, please click here. ASX lithium stocks: further important information The best current alternative to lithium is nickel-based batteries. But lithium batteries charge quicker, and have no memory issues, meaning their maximum charging capacity isn’t affected by each charging cycle. And nickel batteries run hotter quicker, so usually require a cooling system. On the other hand, lithium’s instability makes it around 50% more expensive to manufacture lithium batteries, which impacts the cost of an EV. Lithium batteries also usually have a shorter shelf life than nickel batteries before needing replacing. And because nickel is used more widely, the metal can already be recycled profitably. But fundamentally, lithium is likely to be the metal that will power the EV revolution, unless there is a giant technological leap forward. And to understand the potential the EV revolution has, market leader Tesla’s market cap, while volatile, currently hovers around $900 billion, comparable to the sum of every other auto manufacturer in the world combined. And it produced less than one million vehicles in 2021, while the OICA estimates 57 million passenger cars were produced in total. Indeed, in the past CEO Elon Musk has likened lithium mining to ‘minting money,’ and has hinted plans to start his own lithium company to gain some control of the supply chain. The global shortage is pushing lithium prices beyond record levels, threatening to arrest its so far rapid growth. Lithium carbonate stands at a record $71,315/tonne in China, tripling in a year, and more than 1,150% higher than pandemic lows. And according to the IEA, the number of EVs produced more than doubled in 2021 to 6.6 million. Analysts expect lithium demand to increase tenfold by 2030, as legislation prohibiting the manufacture or sale of ICE cars in the future is being passed across vast swathes of the world, including in the EU, UK, USA, and even China. Currently, China controls 80% of battery cell production and maintains a market-leading position in lithium refining. The war in Ukraine, combined with the Shanghai pandemic lockdown has forced companies worldwide to examine the strength of supply chains and perhaps pay more for higher security of supply. Already, US President Biden has invoked emergency Presidential powers under the Cold-War era 1950 Defense Production Act. He aims to increase production of key metals including lithium, ‘to reduce our reliance on China and other countries for the minerals and materials that will power our clean energy future.’ Further demand is likely to be awoken by the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act, which offers $370 billion of investment into clean energy including extending the $7,500 consumer income tax credit for the purchase of a new EV, and eliminating the per-manufacturer limit on these tax credits. One lithium concern is that it is relatively abundant worldwide. However, supply is restricted for two reasons. The first is that it needs to lithium needs to be concentrated enough to be worth mining and exploratory projects are often expensive with a high failure rate. The second is that lithium is difficult and time-consuming to mine, with new mines taking up to ten years to begin extraction. While corporations worldwide are trying to set up their own mining and processing operations. the demand for lithium is likely to eclipse the supply ramp-up. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that demand for lithium will rise by 900% by 2030, and by 4,000% by 2040. Indeed, Rivian CEO R.J. Scaringe believes that ‘all the world’s cell production combined represents well under 10% of what we will need in 10 years…90% to 95% of the supply chain does not exist.’ Of course, lithium prices are as volatile as the metal itself. For example, a recent influencing factor is China’s ‘zero-covid’ strategy which is has seen lithium processing halt in some areas of the country, while EV manufacturers like Tesla have been forced to suspend factory production at times. Finally, there are multiple ways to invest in ASX lithium stocks. It’s worth noting that lithium is mined from three types of deposits: brine, pegmatite lithium and sedimentary, with Australia accounting for most of the sedimentary lithium worldwide. Many lithium investors prefer to invest across all three types. More widely, many investors choose to buy shares in a diversified miner like Rio Tinto to gain exposure to lithium while limiting overall risk. Of course, this cuts both ways, with diversified miners unlikely to feel the full benefit of any future price rise. And most of the stocks on this ‘top 10’ list are large-cap miners, with the potential for share price hikes in the long term with rights to exclusive projects. But small-cap lithium stocks can be more lucrative, despite carrying more risk. And long term, pure-play ASX lithium stocks are exciting prospects for the adventurous investor. Charles Archer | Financial Writer, London 28 September 2022
  4. Hi @Roadruna, You can email you screenshots to helpdesk.uk@ig.com Our team will be able to investigate further and come back to you accordingly. Thank you - Arvin
  5. Hi @cjm2000, Unfortunately, we do not offer Swiss stocks on our share dealing accounts. We offer the below: Alternatively we do offer Zurich Insurance Group AG on CFD accounts, but you won't be able to transfer your shares. Thank you - Arvin
  6. Chainlink aspires to be the nexus between the crypto and outside worlds. We describe what Chainlink is, what influences its prices, and how its charts are looking. Forex Chainlink Cryptocurrency Blockchain Smart contract Ethereum In this week’s piece, we take a look at a slightly lesser-known token, Chainlink. What is it? What drives its price? And how are the charts currently set up? What is Chainlink? Chainlink is another decentralized ledger that is designed to provide a secure record of ownership. However, unlike other cryptos, which are defined by their inflexibility in order to ensure security, Chainlink is a decentralized network that feeds off-chain data, think asset prices, for example, to smart contracts on its blockchain. Chainlink describes itself as 'decentralized oracle networks provide tamper-proof inputs, outputs, and computations to support advanced smart contracts on any blockchain'. An oracle network simply means one that connects blockchains to external systems. The token came to life in 2014 and was conceived by Sergey Nazarov, who developed a passion for smart contracts and their ability to provide a self-regulated, verifiable and trustworthy 'legal system'. The network token Link was launched in 2019 and was hosted on the Ethereum blockchain. At its core, Chainlink looks to build a nexus between the crypto-universe and external infrastructure. It might be thought of as the bridge that connects the systems we use every day to store information or our digital property, with that of a blockchain. As we discussed here in the past, Chainlink’s usefulness comes as a way of addressing one part of the Trilemma - scalability. The intricacies of Chainlink, like many crypto networks, are complex. However, its essential benefit is to improve how we use decentralized applications. Up to September 2022, Chainlink has validated $US20 billion of smart contracts. Source: Bloomberg What drives Chainlink’s price? As we outlined here in the past, Chainlink’s value, which is currently around $US4 to $US5 billion, is driven just as much by sentiment and speculation as other crypto assets. Chainlink is part of a generation of networks that go beyond bold aspirations of wanting to replace existing financial systems and is instead attempting to solve an everyday problem. For this reason, investing in Chainlink is more like buying a small and risky stock, which looks to derive its value from a service it provides. Like any business, Chainlink is operating in a competitive market environment. It is seeking to market itself and grab market share so as to become the pre-eminent oracle network. Currently, Chainlink is facing competition from the likes of Band Protocol, Nest Protocol and API3, amongst others. While its place in the crypto world is full of commercial adversaries, Chainlink has more than 20 times the partnerships and integrations than its largest competitors combined. Source: Bloomberg Technical analysis of Chainlink Relative to its peers and larger counterparts in the crypto space, Chainlink’s price action is looking more constructive than the likes of Bitcoin, and more recently, Ether. The asset's primary trend is clearly to the downside. However, signs of bottoming are emerging as price momentum turns around. The daily RSI is trending higher and is above 50, which price is above the 20, 50, and 100-day moving averages. As far as the shorter-term trend goes, price is carving out a series of higher highs and lower lows. Support from here might be found at the upward trendline support formed by this price action. While on the upside, resistance could come at $8.10, a level Chainlink recently failed to break, before the 200-day MA and resistance at $9.50 come into view. Chainlink daily chart Source: IG Kyle Rodda | Market Analyst, Australia 28 September 2022
  7. MetaTrader 4 and 5 are no longer available on the Apple App Store. Find out which trading platforms you can use on your mobile to keep seizing trading opportunities. Source: Bloomberg Shares IOS Mobile app App Store (iOS/iPadOS) Apple Inc. Google Play What’s on this page? 1. MT4 and MT5 removal from iOS: what you need to know2. MT4 workaround on iOS3. MT4 and MT5 alternatives MT4 and MT5 removal from iOS: what you need to know In September 2022, Apple removed the MT4 and MT5 apps from the App Store. This will impact new and existing users. New users can no longer download the application, and existing users won’t be able to update it in future. It’s likely that the app won’t function without the necessary updates. Traders using the MT4 or MT5 app on an Android device (downloaded from Google Play) aren’t affected by this change. MT4 workaround on iOS There is an MT4 workaround for iPhone and iPad users. If you use our MT4 VPS, it’s possible to log into the VPS using a remote desktop app on your device. This is the same software some of our clients use to access the VPS on a PC. It’s important that you use the remote desktop app link provided here, as certain imitations can cause harm to your device. This MT4 workaround also gives you access to expert advisors – a function not available on the app. Here are the steps to access MT4 on your Apple device: Open a spread betting or CFD trading account or log in Add MT4 to your account Set up your MT4 VPS Search for the Remote Desktop Mobile app from Microsoft on the App Store Log into the VPS on your iOS device using your existing VPS login details Learn more about how to get started with MT4 MT4 and MT5 alternatives There are a few alternative trading platforms you could use on your mobile instead of MT4 or MT5, such as our web platform, trading app, ProRealTime and L2 Dealer. Our award-winning web platform and app We have the world’s best trading platform and app1 – and it’s free to use. You can download it from the iOS App Store as well as Google Play and use it on your desktop or mobile. When you use our web platform, you can: Access fast execution – your trades will never be filled at a worse price Use easy-to-understand HTML5 charts Get trading signals and alerts Learn more about our trading platform and app ProRealTime The ProRealTime (PRT) platform is available on PC and Mac. It has an easy-to-use algo tool, as well as its own marketplace – like MT4 – where you can buy custom indicators and trading systems. When using PRT, you can: Create customised timeframes and time zones Get market screening tools Access more than 100 technical indicators Join a community forum Learn more about ProRealTime L2 Dealer L2 Dealer is popular among experienced traders. It’s available on PC. With L2 Dealer, you can access share and forex DMA trading, which gives you direct access to the order book of the exchange. Forex trading with L2 Dealer is only available for pro traders. Learn more about L2 Dealer Anzél Killian | Financial writer, Johannesburg 28 September 2022
  8. In the wake of the latest UK budget, the pound has dropped sharply against the dollar, hitting an all-time low as markets worry about the UK’s financial position and uncertain economic outlook. Source: Bloomberg Forex Pound sterling Interest rate Interest Interest rates United States dollar UK expansive fiscal stimuli pushes pound sterling to all-time low Following Friday’s UK extensive fiscal stimuli mini budget, the pound sterling dropped by over 7% to a record low at $1.035 versus the US dollar in Asian time zone trading. The cross thus slipped below its 1985 low at $1.052 and scored its lowest level since decimalisation back in 1971 as the biggest tax cuts in 50 years scared off investors. The pound also fell against several other currencies, notably to a 2-year low versus the euro, before regaining some of its recent losses on short covering trades. The pound sterling reacted negatively to the announcement of the UK mini budget’s income tax cuts, stamp duty reductions, scrapped corporate tax increases and bankers’ bonus caps as investors worry about the government’s ability to finance these initiatives without incurring a huge debt burden as the cost of borrowing is continuing to increase. This is apparent as 5-year gilt yields increased to 4.5%, a 100-basis point (bp) move since Friday. Furthermore, as disposable income increases, there is likely to be an increase in consumer demand, further accelerating inflation and calling for more interest rate hikes. What factors impact the value of the pound? A country’s currency is affected by how easily and freely it can be traded and the demand and supply of the currency which is determined by a number of economic indicators, such as central bank interest rate differentials, a country’s economic growth, inflation and debt, macro-economic and geo-political events, news and future expectations regarding a country and its currency. A country’s economic performance and outlook as well as its interest rate expectations will determine whether businesses, speculators and investors want to buy its currency (demand) or sell it (supply). Source: Refinitiv Interest rates – which are determined by a country’s central bank - play a major role in that, all things being equal, the currency of a country with higher interest rates - or anticipated higher interest rates - tends to rise against currencies of countries with lower interest rates. The reason being that speculators and businesses will buy the higher interest currency and invest in its country in order to receive the higher interest. This is known as a carry trade. A country’s economic performance is mainly determined by its gross domestic product (GDP) – a proxy for the size and health of a country’s economy, usually measured over a quarter or a year -, as well as its consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI), on a monthly and yearly basis. CPI is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of consumer good and services whereas PPI measures the average movements of prices received by domestic producers for goods and services sold on the domestic and/or on export markets over a given time period. Source: Refinitiv Investors and businesses compare this fundamental data country by country and, importantly, look at their future expectations before deciding in which currencies to invest in. Why is the pound sterling trading at all-time lows? The pound sterling had already been sliding versus the US dollar since May of 2021, by some 20% before the current sharp sell-off, as worries about the Northern Island Protocol (NIP) prompted fears of a fresh trade dispute between the UK and the EU. In addition, the US continues to pour cold water on the idea of a UK-US trade deal, and the situation regarding the NIP adds to the complexity of such a deal. But the main event has been the recent ‘mini-Budget’ (which is ‘mini’ in name only). This has seen the new chancellor unveil a host of tax cutting measures designed to provide an economic boost and give UK taxpayers more money to spend at a time of rising prices. The problem with this is that it comes hard on the heels of the decision to spend around 6% of UK GDP on reducing energy prices, ensuring that the government deficit will increase dramatically. This two-pronged move has worried global markets, and as a result government borrowing costs have risen. Fears of a wider global recession have driven classic ‘risk off’ moves in FX markets, and traders have continued to buy the dollar and sell sterling. Where does the pound go from here? Monday’s early trading saw a dramatic downward move for GBP/USD, which fell to a record low against the US dollar of $1.03. This took place in relatively thin liquidity trading conditions, which can make it easier for dramatic moves to develop. Investors and traders need to remember we are in a high volatility environment, exemplified by the equally impressive rebound from the lows of the session back to $1.07. GDP/USD has been trending lower against the US dollar since the summer of 2021. A downtrend is characterised by a series of lower highs and lower lows, and is usually taken as an opportunity to go short in the expectation of profiting from additional moves lower. But just as prices can be stretched to the upside in an uptrend, they can also be stretched to the downside, and we have seen this develop since Monday morning. A degree of overexcited selling pushed GBP/USD down to $1.03, but this left it nearly 14% away from the 50-day moving average. Often, such moves can be entirely reversed in the short term, but leave the dominant trend intact. GBP/USD has not exactly rallied, but it could see another short-term recovery that see it move back towards $1.15. This would recoup the losses of the past week, without suggesting that a longer-term change of trend was at hand. Alternately, the rebound may have already run its course, and the price may turn lower once again. In that case, a move below $1.06 could well signal a new fall is at hand. Source: ProRealTime Volatility likely to remain elevated The pound’s travails come at a time when volatility across all markets appears to be increasing. However you choose to trade the pound’s moves, remember that risk management is still the most important factor. Remember to ensure you have stops in place to help prevent losses becoming too large, and make sure that you do not overleverage. In general, wider stops and smaller position sizes will help investors to navigate this period. The overall outlook for the UK economy, and for the US too, appears to support expectations of further downside for the pound. But is likely to be a volatile journey, made more so if further comments are made by policymakers in the UK. Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London 27 September 2022
  9. We take a look at what’s driving the gold price and investing in Newcrest Mining and Northern Star Resources. Forex Shares Commodities Gold Inflation Investment Kyle Rodda | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 27 September 2022 10:48 This issue of Investor Spotlight is brought to you by IG, with Kyle Rodda, Market Analyst and ausbiz presenter. Is all that glitters gold? Well - not this year. Gold prices have plunged, leaving investors scratching their heads as to why the yellow metal has underperformed in this high inflation environment. In this week’s Investor Spotlight, we take a look at what’s driving the price of gold, what that means for Aussie gold miners and the investment case for the likes of Newcrest and Northern Star. What’s driving the gold price? Gold as an inflation hedge is something of a fallacy. Although inflation, or more accurately, inflation expectations is one driver of the gold price, it is only half the story. The other half is interest rates and expectations about future monetary policy. The best way to describe gold is as a store of value. It sees its demand increase at times when safe-haven assets – specifically, US government bonds – are delivering a negative real yield. Rather than buy an asset that will lose value, investors will instead buy gold and although the metal yields nothing, relatively speaking it is a more attractive investment than the one that will lose you money. Over the last year, real yields have been gradually moving higher and into positive territory as the US Federal Reserve pivoted to tighter monetary policy settings. The real yield on the US ten-year Treasury note is closing in on four-year highs which largely explains why gold has recently pushed to more than two-year lows. Of course, there is also the currency element to what drives gold. Gold is priced in US dollars, meaning that as the US dollar appreciates gold faces headwinds from the stronger Greenback. Gold price technical analysis The price of gold has fallen through a major level of technical support in recent weeks at around $US1670. On top of that, there are signs of the commodity is entering a longer-term downtrend, with price pushing below the 200-week moving average. The weekly RSI is approaching technically oversold territory; however, it remains above 30 and momentum is clearly to the downside. Spot gold weekly chart Source: TradingView Comparing the Aussie dollar gold price When it comes to ASX-listed gold miners, another factor is important to consider when it comes to the gold price: Australian dollar. The exchange rate can buffet some of the impact of a stronger US dollar on the global gold price, and sometimes support the profits of Australian gold miners. Currently, the Australian dollar gold price is trending lower. However, the impact of the exchange rate is observable, with the price still above the year’s lows, as the AUD/USD falls into the low 65-cent handle. Source: Reuters A look at Aussie gold miners ASX-listed gold miners have underperformed the broader market over the last year, falling more than 27% versus the ASX which is down around 12%. The gold miners have multiple headwinds to deal with - both macro and micro. From a macro standpoint, the lower gold price is reducing the topline of miners. But another hit to profits is the higher cost environment that’s driven up the price of inputs, labour and energy. The subsequent squeeze on earnings has pushed the share price of the big gold miners lower, even if the impact has been more modest than global counterparts due to a favourable exchange rate. Source: Market Index Newcrest Mining (NCM) Newcrest is the ASX’s largest gold miner with a market capitalization of around $15b. The company’s stock is arguably the most popular way for Australian investors to get exposure to local gold miners, as a result. It has been a tough 12 months for investors. After a brief run-up in April, the drop in gold prices has pushed Newcrest Mining shares to four-year lows. Despite the poor run, the analyst community is bullish on Newcrest shares. It has a consensus “buy” rating amongst 17 surveyed brokers, with a consensus price target at a heavy discount of around $24.73. The stock’s price-to-earnings is also at a discount to its long-term average. And it’s a relatively safe investment compared to the broader market, with a beta of 0.75. Looking at the charts, Newcrest Mining shares are evidently in a downtrend, with momentum heavily skewed to the downside. However, there are some signs that the stock has capitulated and is becoming oversold, with the weekly RSI falling below 30. Price is finding support at around $16 per share, which if broken, may trigger further selling. On the upside, resistance can be found at around $18.50. Newcrest Mining weekly chart Source: IG Northern Star Resources (NST) Northern Star Resources ranks number two in terms of market capitalization, with a valuation of just over $8 billion. The company is facing the same headwinds as its larger counterpart. However, the drop in its market value has been less severe, with the stock down over 19% in the past 12 months. Brokers are even more bullish on Northern Star Resources, with a strong consensus buy rating amongst 15 analysts covering the stock. It also boasts a price target at a very hefty premium to current prices of around $10.70. It is a slightly more volatile stock, with a beta of 0.95. However, that is still relatively safe compared to the broader ASX. The trend is to the downside for Northern Star Resources. Price is below all key moving averages, although the weekly RSI is perking up. The 20-week moving average is one key level of technical resistance that if broken could open up greater upside, with $8.30 another beyond that. Support is at $6.70. Northern Star Resources weekly chart Source: IG
  10. Even though September is often when Apple shines but things are a bit different this year. Source: Bloomberg Shares Apple Inc. iPhone Market sentiment Technical analysis Smartphone Apple’s new strategy September 7th, 2022 saw Apple Inc unveils its 2022 lineup of smartphones and digital assets. The launch includes a base model iPhone 14, a larger Plus version, the 14 Pro, and the 14 Pro Max. The gap between the base and the Pro model is apparent with the Pro models receiving a 48-megapixel camera upgrade, a much faster A16 Bionic chip, a new always-on-display feature and a 35% higher charge. The upgrades and improvments in the iPhone are all designed to fit into Apple's new strategy. What does the new strategy mean for Apple? This new strategy has the potential to be a game changer for Apple. Over the previous years, the lower-priced iPhones usually did well in sales and this was evident during the second quarter of 2022 when Apple sold about 37% more of the base model iPhone 13 and 13 Mini than the two Pro versions. But for the new series, the expectation is that the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max will account for 50 to 60% of total shipments for the rest of the year with the iPhone 14 Pro Max, the most expensive version, anticipated to make up 30 to 35% of sales alone. This new product strategy, if successful, will not only help Apple to seize more market shares, an area where Samsung is leading at the moment but more importantly, will help the company enjoy higher margins to combat the inflation headwinds. Apple’s share price and technical analysis Over 2022, Apple's share price has declined 18% and only a further 15% since August 18th. However, despite a slightly questionable performance, it is still safe to say Apple remains a company investors can count on. Given its robust business and financial performance, the recent dip in prices doesn't change the fact that shareholders have received enviable returns over the last five years, at around 300%. The share price for Apple has been working hard to stabilize the ground around the 100-day moving average after the recent decline to a two-month-low. That brings the price back to the crucial $150 level signalling the potential for further downside. However, with the price dipping deep into the oversold territory, we could see the possibility that selling pressure should ease soon. Even so, with an overall bearish sentiment in play, it may be too optimistic to expect a quick turnaround. A rise through the $154 level, where the 20-day MA sits, would be required to negate this bearish short-term view. Apple daily chart Source: IG Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne 27 September 2022
  11. Hi @Someuser, Thank you for your response. Unfortunately there isn't much that can be done on the IG Community, this type of queries are dealt by the IG Helpdesk and the Dealing desk. I would recommend to either email helpdesk.uk@ig.com or call 0800 409 6789 for a resolution. Thank you - Arvin
  12. Hi @Someuser, It seems that a team member responded to your query on the 24th of August to your registered email address. If you need further assistance you will need to reach out to helpdesk.uk@ig.com as they will be able to investigate further. Thanks again - Arvin
  13. The Reserve Bank of Australia created record amounts of money during the pandemic, that could be stoking inflation. It may be worth adding inflation-benefitting shares to the portfolio. Source: Bloomberg Inflation Interest rates Interest rate Shares Commodities Bank From February 2020 to February 2022, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expanded the money supply by an unprecedented 375%. Of the $549.5 billion in currency and call accounts, over $400 billion didn’t exist three years ago. Increases in the money supply of this magnitude tend to create inflation, and we’re seeing some right now. In June 2022, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit a 30-year high of 6.1%. The last time CPI exceeded this level was December 1990, after Saddam Hussain invaded Kuwait. The RBA forecast back in May that the CPI would remain above 4% at least until the end of 2023. Some components of inflation are rising even faster: Weekly rents in Sydney rose by 23.7% in September 2022 compared to a year ago, according to SQM Research Weekly rents nationally rose by 14.8% over the same period The average spot price of electricity (excluding WA and NT) for August 2022 increased by 221% compared to August 2021 So, who will benefit from increased inflation over the next 12-24 months? Here are the three stocks to watch: Origin Energy – energy production Commonwealth Bank – banking Insurance Australia – floating rate note Origin Energy Limited Origin Energy Ltd is involved in the exploration and production of natural gas in Australia, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of natural gas and electricity, and the sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and for export. Origin’s share price suffered during the pandemic, as did its bottom line. The company recorded impairment losses in 2020-22 totalling $4.9 billion and net losses of over $2.3 billion and $1.4 billion in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Of the $2.6 billion in impairment losses in 2022, $2.2 billion were hedging losses due to higher electricity and natural gas prices. In 2020 and 2022, Origin also recorded operating losses of $0.2 billion and $0.7 billion, respectively. However, things are looking up for Origin. Wholesale electricity prices have risen significantly over the past year. For the 2022 financial year ending in June, Origin made a $713 million profit despite hedging losses, compared to a $348 million loss in the prior year. Origin made a $92 million profit in its oil and gas division due to rising gas prices for the 2022 financial year ending in June, compared to a $231 million loss the previous year. As long as inflation continues to affect natural gas and electricity prices, Origin appears to be well positioned to benefit. Commonwealth Bank Limited In terms of banks benefiting from inflation, there isn’t a lot to differentiate between the big four banks: Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Westpac Banking Corp, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd, and National Australia Bank Ltd. The reason for singling out Commonwealth Bank is its portfolio weighting towards mortgages – it has the highest exposure. Mortgages as a percent of total exposure at default: Commonwealth Bank 54.50 Westpac 50.31 ANZ 40.48 NAB 37.33 Source: Fitch Ratings Banks benefit from rising inflation in two ways: Higher asset prices reduce loan losses from mortgages As the central bank reacts and raises interest rates, bank interest margins rise Higher asset prices reduce loan losses A simple calculation for a profit from a mortgage is: Profit = interest margin + fees - costs - loss at default Interest margins are fairly constant as most bank loans are adjustable within five years. Fees and costs, too, are fairly standard as mortgages are standardised products. In the event of a default, the bank can lose money when the costs associated with taking possession of the mortgaged asset and selling it exceed the initial deposit and capital payments received. These losses expand rapidly if housing prices fall – as happened in the US in 2008. However, if housing prices rise, then the chance of recording a loss in the event of default falls. Commonwealth Bank appears to be best positioned to benefit from lower loan losses. Over the past two years, the bank’s provisioning losses turned around from $2.5 billion loss in 2020 to a profit (reversal in provisionings) of $357 million in 2022. Further housing price inflation could contribute to lower provisioning losses in the coming 1-2 years. Interest margins may rise Banks benefit from rising interest rates when lending rates outpace deposit rates. While term deposit interest rates appear to be rising in tandem with RBA rate rises, as are variable rate mortgages, interest rates on call accounts and chequing accounts remain close to zero. As of 30 June 2022, Commonwealth Bank had only $158 million in term deposits and Certificates of Deposit (CDs) out of $745 million in total Australian deposits. The rest were in lower interest short-term deposits and zero interest deposits. Meanwhile, home loans totalled $556 million. Commonwealth Bank appears to be well positioned to benefit from rising interest rates if loan rates rise faster than deposit rates and increase net interest margin. Insurance Australia Floating Rate Note The Insurance Australia Floating Rate Note (ASX:IAGPD] is more of a fixed-income investment than equity. IAG issued $300m in these shares in 2016 and they convert into ordinary shares on 16 June 2025. These are subordinated unsecured notes, which means they are higher risk than other IAG debt, but lower risk than equity. IAG issued this floating rate note to improve its Tier 1 Capital adequacy ratio. IAGPD is not a direct beneficiary of inflation. However, it will benefit from the consequent rising interest rates because it has floating rate payments – similar to a floating rate mortgage. The interest (dividends) paid on these notes is paid quarterly at an annualised rate of 4.7% above the 90-day bank bill swap rate. So as interest rates rise, so too will the dividend yield. The September 2022 dividend was $1.242 (annualised at $4.968, or 4.968% for the $100 par value), reflecting the previous 90-day bank bill swap rate of 0.268. Now that interest rates are rising, and the 90-day swap rate has risen to 2.9% as of 26 September, these yields should climb towards 7.6%, based on the $100 par value. IAGPD generally trades slightly above par, with a 52-week range of 100.01 to 105.50. This appears to make IAGPD a beneficiary of the rising interest rates the RBA is using to fight inflation. Peter Keusgen | Financial Writer Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – all at your fingertips on our award-winning platform.* Learn more about share CFDs or share trading with us, or open an account to get started today. * Winner of ‘Best Multi-Platform Provider’ at ADVFN International Finance Awards 2022
  14. The Australian dollar sunk in the aftermath of the Fed’s rate rise; the RBA has signaled a less hawkish approach to monetary policy and the Fed’s jumbo hike has given USD some backbone. Will AUD/USD go lower? Source: Bloomberg Forex Shares Australian dollar United States dollar Bond Inflation Australian dollar forecast: bearish The Australian dollar appears captive to the machinations of the US dollar for now. The fallout from the Fed’s decision during the week has seen Treasury yields roar higher. This has seen the US dollar strengthen across the board with the US dollar index (DXY) jumping to a 20-year high. The US central bank raised its Fed funds target rate by 75 basis points as anticipated during the week, but it was the post-decision press conference that got the hawks screeching. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, “we will keep at it until the job is done,” in reference to fighting sky-high inflation (8.3% year-on-year to the end of August). The market has now priced in another 125 basis points of lifts by the end of the year. Conversely, the less hawkish stance of the RBA was confirmed during the week with the release of the RBA meeting minutes for the September meeting. By in large, they re-iterated the opinion expressed recently by RBA Governor Philip Lowe that the RBA will be considering a hike of either 25 or 50 bp at their next meeting on 4th October. He has also said that as rates become elevated, the case for further large boosts decreases. So, while rates are being tightened, they are being done so at a slower pace than the Fed and other global central banks. This pace of reining in previously loose policy places the Australian dollar under pressure as yields in other developed markets rise. The tightening of monetary policy is to allay fears of inflation becoming entrenched. The last read of year-on-year CPI to the end of the second quarter came in at 6.1%, well above the RBA’s target of 2-3% on average over the business cycle. So, while price pressures are stronger than desired, they are not as pronounced as in other parts of the world, hence the less aggressive tightening stance. 2- and 10-year bond spread yields illustrate the relative outperformance of Treasuries to Australian Commonwealth Government Bonds (ACGB). With the RBA’s dovish tilt compared to Fed, the ‘big dollar’ continues to climb, pushing AUD/USD down. AUD/USD against 2- and 10-year bond spreads Source: TradingView Daniel McCarthy | Strategist 26 September 2022 13:27 This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
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