Jump to content

Payrolls growth to slow in February


Recommended Posts

Recent months have seen a slowdown in the rate of US jobs growth, but the February number is at least expected to be accompanied by a drop in the unemployment rate below 3.9%.

bg_us_flag_usa_303190154.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 01 March 2022 

What are markets expecting for the NFP announcement?

After last month’s surprisingly strong non-farm payrolls (NFP) of 467,000, investors expect job growth of 438,000 for the month of February. This is still a good number, but would be another month of a declining trend – payrolls hit a high of 677,000 in October, but have weakened each month subsequently.

However, the unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 3.9%, reversing the slight increase of January and returning to the improving situation that has prevailed since June 2021. Hourly wages are forecast to rise 0.5% on the month and 5.8% over the year.

What might this mean for US monetary policy?

In the past few weeks, markets have focused their attention on what the Federal Reserve (Fed) might do at its next meeting. This takes place in mid-March, and is expected to see a rate hike.

While a move to higher rates is all but guaranteed, as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC )looks to shift away from the era of emergency monetary policy, the question is whether the committee will raise by 25 basis points or 50. Given the broader geopolitical situation, the latter course may seem too dramatic for the first move, but oil prices continue to rise, and with agricultural commodities on the up as well, Fed chair, Jerome Powell and his team will have to think about whether a greater pace of tightening is required.

US dollar outlook

A steady rally in the greenback since May has seen the dollar gain over 8%. Overall this seems set to continue, and with a recent string of higher lows and higher highs being printed the buyers remain in charge for the time being.

Having rallied from the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) in early February, the price has moved back to the late January highs above 97, and has even managed to push briefly to 97.60, its highest level since the summer of 2020.

More broadly, expectations of further Fed tightening support the idea that the dollar will continue to gain, and it will take a reversal below the recent higher lows of 95.60 and 94.11 to suggest that the sellers have gained the upper hand.

DX_010322.pngSource: ProRealTime
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      21,261
    • Total Posts
      90,870
    • Total Members
      41,373
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    vishesh
    Joined 06/02/23 00:17
  • Posts

    • SP500 | NASDAQ | Russell 2000 | Dow Jones: Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Content: SP500 - NASDAQ 100 - RUSSELL 2000 - DOW JONES Summary Bullish Impulse wave structure moving higher Elliott Wave (iv) of iii) of 3 of (3) of 1) Strategies Holding long Video Chapters 00:00 S&P500  11:33 NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 12:26 Russell 2000 (RUT) 13:23 Dow Jones (DJI) 19:16 TRIAL Buy 1 Month Get 3 Months Analyst Peter Mathers TradingLounge™ Australian Financial Services Licence - AFSL 317817 Source: tradinglounge com  
    • Q: How can I experience the Fairy Cat metaverse? A: Debuting in January 2023, Fairy Cat is one of the most popular crypto metaverse games. While earlier games (World of Warcraft, League of Legends, Destiny 2) either precede blockchain technology or have not integrated it into their games at all, more recent metaverse iterations - such as FairyCat - integrate metaverse games and blockchain platforms. These so-called "crypto metaverse" games use blockchain technology to achieve encrypted in-game cash, play-to-earn (P2E) and non-fungible tokens (NFT), decentralization and other functionality to bring extraordinary benefits to metaverse games. relevant impact. You don't need to be a crypto expert to play this innovative game, although a little crypto knowledge is helpful to take advantage of all the functionality of FairyCat. Start exploring Fairy Cat: 1. Go to the Fairy Cat website to learn more about the game's currency models, then download the Metamask wallet. 2. Start earning money by opening the game in the Metamask wallet browser. At this point, the game will connect to your wallet account. Don't worry that this game will steal your wallet balance, because it doesn't need your account authorization data, it just needs your wallet data. 3. Once you are in Fairy Cat, you can go through a money transfer tutorial to learn the basic controls. Then you can earn money in the following three methods: Method 1: Adopt a cat to help you find treasures, and you can make profit after selling the treasures. Method 2: Synthesize an LV1 elf cat through 5 elves, and then sell the LV1 elf cat to earn money. This can be understood simply as using 5U to earn 10U (50% probability), and you can buy items to increase the synthesis rate. Method 3: Invite your friends to play the game. After your friends earn money, you can also get commission income. The income is very high.
    • HI,  Please if any IG supporting staff can answer the questions below? 1. in the upcoming AMC/APE vote on 14 March 2023, can shareholder that hold AMC and APE at IG able to make a vote? I also have AMC and APE at IBKR and they did send out a notification to inform me that I can do proxy vote. Will IG do the same? 2. the upcoming vote is to determine APE covert back to AMC then do reverse spilt. Last year after APE issued, IG staff told me that they have to move APE to share dealing account from my ISA account as ISA is not eligible to hold APE (which is completely unbelivable, my APE at AJ Bell and HL are still sitting in ISA account). Anyway, if the conversion and reverse spilt is going to happen, will IG move my APE back to ISA account for the corporate action? Many Thanks
×
×
  • Create New...