Jump to content

Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Forecast for the Days Ahead


Recommended Posts

U.S. INDICES TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

  • S&P 500 in bounce mode after testing lows, trend-lines to watch ahead
  • Nasdaq 100 has a trend-line not too far away to pay attention to
  • Dow Jones resistance test lies just ahead
Dow Jones Industrial Average Ignores Big Risks to Reach Record High. Here  Are Next Week's Worries. | Barron's

DOW JONES, NASDAQ 100, S&P 500 FORECAST FOR THE DAYS AHEAD

The S&P 500 is coming off a meaningful test of the Feb 24 gap and reversal day. Not long ago the U.S. markets were holding up relatively well compared to the more impacted European stock markets, but that glaring relative strength waned as we have seen the likes of the DAX bounce very strongly and the S&P 500 show only very modest strength.

The bounce is about to get its first test of resistance via a trend-line from early February. It is only a minor form of resistance, but could be a good test nevertheless of the power the market wants to show on the upside. Another trend-line from the record high lies just beyond the Feb line. This will also be an important test as to whether the market wants to continue to trend lower or not.

Generally speaking, the US markets never showed a real panicky low like the DAX and others global indices did, and so it has been difficult to gauge whether the market wants to really recover or if this is a bounce that will fail.

Other forces beyond what is happening in Ukraine may come to send US stocks lower. With European markets flying back over growing optimism on the Ukraine/Russia situation, the US is sluggish and may be signaling that other factors, such as rising inflation/rates/etc., could continue to be a major headwind for stock prices. Whatever the driver is I will continue to monitor price action. Right now it is not convincingly higher, and so a turn lower from resistance will be taken a potential cue to turn bearish again.

 

S&P 500 DAILY CHART

S&P 500 daily chart

S&P 500 Chart by TradingView

The Nasdaq 100 is bouncing from around the Feb low after barely breaching it on Monday. The bounce is already finding itself near the Jan trend-line – will monitor price action at that juncture and the broader market. A solid close below 13020 could send the market strongly lower as the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern gets clearly taken out.

NASDAQ 100 DAILY CHART

Nasdaq 100 daily chart

Nasdaq 100 Chart by TradingView

The Dow Jones could see be a battle with resistance around the 34k level. This is an area that began as meaningful back in early December and was support and resistance since. There is also a trend-line off the Jan high that could come into play just beyond horizontal resistance. Like with the other two indices a solid test of resistance could show what the market is made of.

DOW JONES DAILY CHART

Dow Jones daily chart

Dow Jones Chart by TradingView

Resources for Forex Traders

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, 16th March 2022, Market Analyst. DailyFX

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      21,298
    • Total Posts
      90,947
    • Total Members
      41,428
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    PHMURTON
    Joined 08/02/23 10:03
  • Posts

    • Volatile trade, following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the Economic Club of Washington DC, has ultimately ended in gains for major US indices the SP500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100. Source Bloomberg   Indices Market trend Federal Reserve Dow Jones Industrial Average Nasdaq-100 Trade    Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Wednesday 08 February 2023  While the Fed chair noted that inflation was continuing to ease, he also suggested that US lending rates are likely to rise further. While disinflation has begun in the world’s largest economy, figures remain a far cry off the central banks 2% target. Expectations are that rates are still likely to reach the 5% to 5.25% range, considered a point of neutrality. However, Mr Powell cautioned markets that the reemergence of higher inflation and strong labour reports could push rates further than markets currently expect. Markets appeared to dismiss the ‘hawkish’ comments from the Fed, and major benchmark indices have started to extend the bullish trends we have seen this year. S&P 500 (US 500)   Source IG The moving 20 (red), 50 (green)and 200 (blue) day simple moving averages (MAs) reaffirm the upward trend bias for the SP500 index. The stochastic oscillator currently labours in overbought territory. Our view is that the trend takes precedence over the overbought signal. A shallow pullback on the index looks to have ended with a bullish engulfing candle pattern / price reversal. 4195 and 4220 provide the initial upside resistance targets from the move higher, while 4325 provides a longer-term upside resistance target. Traders who are long might consider using close below the 4085 low as a tight stop loss indication for the trade. A tight stop loss consideration is in lieu of the overbought conditions in play. Traders could also consider trailing a stop loss with the red trend line on the chart. Nasdaq 100 (US 100) Source IG The technical indications on the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100) are like that of the SP500. The moving 20 (red), 50 (green)and 200 (blue) day simple moving averages (MAs) reaffirm the upward trend bias for the index while stochastic oscillator currently labours in overbought territory. A shallow pullback on the index looks to have ended with a bullish engulfing candle pattern / price reversal. 12900 and 13190 are the initial upside resistance targets from the move higher. Traders who are long might consider using close below the 12400 low as a tight stop loss indication for the trade. A tight stop loss consideration is in lieu of the overbought conditions in play. Traders could also consider trailing a stop loss with the red trend line on the chart. Dow Jones Industrial Index (Wall Street 30) Source IG The Dow Jones Industrial Index while also posting gains in the near term, reflects a slightly different trading environment right now to the SP500 and Nasdaq indices. The short to medium term trend for the index is considered sideways, while the longer-term trend bias is considered up. The sideways range is considered between levels 32475 (support) and 34660 (resistance). Traders of the index might prefer to keep a long bias to trades in lieu of the longer-term uptrend still in play. Long trade considerations might be on a bullish price reversal closer to range support or on a bullish upside break of range resistance.
    • FTSE 100 near record high, DAX 40 and S&P 500 also higher on Fed Chair Powell speech Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and S&P 500 post less hawkish than anticipated Jerome Powell speech. Source: Bloomberg    Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 08 February 2023  FTSE 100 trades close to new all-time highs The FTSE 100 rallied to a new all-time high overnight following Wednesday evening’s less hawkish than anticipated speech by the Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell, even though he explained that more rate hikes would be needed if the US labour market remains strong but also mentioned that disinflation had begun. A continued advance in the UK blue chip index could have the psychological 8,000 mark in focus, if further record highs were to be seen. Slips should find support around the 7,876 January peak and further down at Tuesday’s 7,843 low. While it underpins, immediate upside pressure should be maintained. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 recovers on back of stronger US equity markets On Tuesday, the DAX 40 revisited its Monday low but then recovered off it amid stronger US equity markets which positively interpreted comments by Fed chair Jerome Powell, even though he mentioned that inflation may last “quite a bit of time.” Following Tuesday’s Hammer formation on the daily candlestick chart, the DAX 40 may once more be heading towards its 15,553 early February high, provided that Tuesday’s low at 15,272 underpins on a daily chart closing basis. Above it the 2023 uptrend line at 15,318 may offer support as well. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 rallies post Fed chair Powell’s speech The S&P 500 saw some volatile trading on Tuesday, rising in anticipation of Fed chair Jerome Powell’s speech and then rapidly dropping during his speech before finally rallying as the market interpreted his comments to be less hawkish than previously anticipated. A swift rise off Tuesday’s 4,088 low took the index back above the 4,155 mid-September high while targeting last week’s six-month high at 4,195 which hasn’t been reached yet, though. If overcome, however, the late August high at 4,215 would be next in line. A bullish bias will be maintained while no bearish reversal takes the S&P 500 below Tuesday’s 4,088 low. If so, a top may be forming which could take the index back to the 55- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at 3,966 to 3,938. Source: ProRealTime
    • Intuitive Surgical Inc., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Intuitive Surgical Inc., (ISRG:NASDAQ): Daily Chart, 8 February 23 ISRG Stock Market Analysis: Looking for further upside in wave {i} of 3, however we are still on for a double correction lower into wave {c} of 2. ISRG Elliott Wave Count: Wave (i) of {i}. ISRG Technical Indicators:200EMA as support, 20 and 50EMAs crossing. ISRG Trading Strategy: Looking for a break of wave {b} before considering longs. TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!   Intuitive Surgical Inc., ISRG: 4-hour Chart, 8 February 23 Intuitive Surgical Inc., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis ISRG Stock Market Analysis: It looks like we could either have a nest into wave {i} with a (i),(ii) and then again i,ii or else we could be making a flat wave (ii).   ISRG Elliott Wave count: Wave (i) of {i}. ISRG Technical Indicators: Crossing of the 20 and 200EMA. ISRG Trading Strategy: Looking for evidence we have resumed the uptrend with a clear trend establishing move off the lows.
×
×
  • Create New...