Jump to content

EUR/USD Price Outlook: Risks Mount to the Downside


Recommended Posts

EUR/USD, FED, ECB NEWS AND ANALYSIS

  • Dollar remains supported on the back of ‘hawkish’ Powell comments
  • EUR/USD edges lower after failed attempt to trade above 1.1150
  • IG Client Sentiment suggests potential short-term lift in EUR/USD

Central Bankers Have Their Say

Rather hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Monday continue to reverberate throughout dollar pairs, as the greenback edges higher once more. On Monday Jerome Powell stated that the Fed will go for more aggressive rate hikes if needed, to curb inflation. He added the possibility of hiking more than 25 basis points “each time” if needed. That opened the door for money markets to shift rate hike expectations towards 50 basis points in May with increasing likelihood of a potential 50 basis point hike in June as well.

On the ECB front, we have already heard from Legarde Nagel and de Guindos that there are no signs of stagnation in the Eurozone economy. Nagel raised concerns over the risk of tightening policy too late and remains open to a potential rate hike this year. Rates markets currently anticipate just under 50 basis points of tightening before year end – a long way off the trajectory of the Fed with markets anticipating a further 180 bps this year.

Risk Events Ahead

There are a notable amount of Fed speakers to end off the week in the absence of significant scheduled event risk. Speakers include: Powell, Daly, Waller, Evans, Bostic, Williams and Barkin

EUR/USD Price Outlook: Risks Mount to the Downside

Customize and filter live economic data via our DaliyFX economic calendar

EUR/USD KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS

The daily EUR/USD chart shows the failed attempt to trade above the 1.1150 mark in the aftermath of the Fed rate hike as the dollar softened slightly. Prices now appear to be heading lower once again, highlighting the recent low of 1.0805 which also happens to rest on the long-term trendline dating back to 2017.

A continuation in monetary policy divergence would raise the attractiveness of the higher yielding dollar in contrast to the negative yielding euro. If future Fed hikes are anywhere close to market expectations, the pair looks vulnerable to prolonged downside risks.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

EUR/USD Price Outlook: Risks Mount to the Downside

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

The weekly chart highlights the long-term trendline dating back to 2017 which acted as support earlier this month but could soon witness a retest.

EUR/USD Weekly Chart

EUR/USD Price Outlook: Risks Mount to the Downside

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

image.png
 

IG CLIENT SENTIMENT INDICATES POTENTIAL BULLISH REPRIEVE

EUR/USD Price Outlook: Risks Mount to the Downside

  • EUR/USD: Retail trader data shows 61.50% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.60 to 1.
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall.
  • The number of traders net-long is 6.45% higher than yesterday and 2.48% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 6.68% higher than yesterday and 15.06% higher from last week.
  • Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
 

 

 

--- Written by Richard Snow for DailyFX.com. 23rd March 2022

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      21,262
    • Total Posts
      90,871
    • Total Members
      41,377
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    FaridKazemiDemo
    Joined 06/02/23 04:08
  • Posts

    • Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge Daily Chart, 6 February 23, AAVE /U.S.dollar(AAVEUSD) AAVEUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter trend Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave ((2)) Direction Next higher Degrees: Wave III of Motive Wave Cancel invalid Level: 50.173 AAVE /U.S.dollar(AAVEUSD)Trading Strategy: AAVE token has recovered well from the 50.40 level and managed to cross the MA200 line, indicating that an uptrend is forming. The Elliottwave structure is in a correction of wave (2) as a short-term decline before the price rises. again AAVE /U.S.dollar(AAVEUSD) Technical Indicators: The price is above the MA200 indicating an uptrend. The wave oscillators above Zero-Line momentum are bullish TradingLounge Analyst: Kittiampon Somboonsod Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here! Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge 4H Chart, 6 February 23, AAVE /U.S.dollar(AAVEUSD) AAVEUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter trend Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave ((2)) Direction Next higher Degrees: Wave III of Motive Wave Cancel invalid Level: 50.173 AAVE /U.S.dollar(AAVEUSD) Trading Strategy: AAVE token has recovered well from the 50.40 level and managed to cross the MA200 line, indicating that an uptrend is forming. The Elliottwave structure is in a correction of wave (2) as a short-term decline before the price rises. again. AAVE /U.S.dollar(AAVEUSD)Technical Indicators: The price is above the MA200, indicating an uptrend. The wave oscillators below Zero-Line Bearish momentum.
    • SP500 | NASDAQ | Russell 2000 | Dow Jones: Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Content: SP500 - NASDAQ 100 - RUSSELL 2000 - DOW JONES Summary Bullish Impulse wave structure moving higher Elliott Wave (iv) of iii) of 3 of (3) of 1) Strategies Holding long Video Chapters 00:00 S&P500  11:33 NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 12:26 Russell 2000 (RUT) 13:23 Dow Jones (DJI) 19:16 TRIAL Buy 1 Month Get 3 Months Analyst Peter Mathers TradingLounge™ Australian Financial Services Licence - AFSL 317817 Source: tradinglounge com  
    • Q: How can I experience the Fairy Cat metaverse? A: Debuting in January 2023, Fairy Cat is one of the most popular crypto metaverse games. While earlier games (World of Warcraft, League of Legends, Destiny 2) either precede blockchain technology or have not integrated it into their games at all, more recent metaverse iterations - such as FairyCat - integrate metaverse games and blockchain platforms. These so-called "crypto metaverse" games use blockchain technology to achieve encrypted in-game cash, play-to-earn (P2E) and non-fungible tokens (NFT), decentralization and other functionality to bring extraordinary benefits to metaverse games. relevant impact. You don't need to be a crypto expert to play this innovative game, although a little crypto knowledge is helpful to take advantage of all the functionality of FairyCat. Start exploring Fairy Cat: 1. Go to the Fairy Cat website to learn more about the game's currency models, then download the Metamask wallet. 2. Start earning money by opening the game in the Metamask wallet browser. At this point, the game will connect to your wallet account. Don't worry that this game will steal your wallet balance, because it doesn't need your account authorization data, it just needs your wallet data. 3. Once you are in Fairy Cat, you can go through a money transfer tutorial to learn the basic controls. Then you can earn money in the following three methods: Method 1: Adopt a cat to help you find treasures, and you can make profit after selling the treasures. Method 2: Synthesize an LV1 elf cat through 5 elves, and then sell the LV1 elf cat to earn money. This can be understood simply as using 5U to earn 10U (50% probability), and you can buy items to increase the synthesis rate. Method 3: Invite your friends to play the game. After your friends earn money, you can also get commission income. The income is very high.
×
×
  • Create New...