Jump to content

Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Gold Outlook Below Key Support


Recommended Posts

GOLD ANALYSIS AND NEWS:

  • Gold Unwinds War Risk Premium
  • Gold Bearish Below Key Support at 1880
  • DAX Chart to Watch: Prior Support Now Resistance

Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Gold Outlook Below Key Support | MENAFN.COM

GOLD UNWINDS WAR RISK PREMIUM

As the mood music improves during peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical risk premium in gold continues to unwind. Keep in mind, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the outlook was looking rather bleak for the precious metal as the Fed were preparing to embark on the most aggressive tightening cycle in decades. This remains the case given and perhaps even more so as Powell and Co. look to hike rates in 50bps clips. Therefore, it is important for gold traders to once again focus on real yields for direction (Figure 1), which as it stands, points to lower gold prices.

As such, much like my view on risk appetite (S&P 500 fading rallies), in the absence of further geopolitical escalations, the focus will shift towards the Fed tightening financial conditions.

Gold vs US 10Y Real Yields

Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Gold Outlook Below Key Support

Source: Refinitiv

GOLD BEARISH BELOW KEY SUPPORT AT 1880

From a technical perspective, gold is neutral and while I am leaning towards the downside in the precious metal. Bearish conviction will grow on a break below 1880, which will also likely confirm a double top from 2070.

Gold Chart: Daily Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Gold Outlook Below Key Support

Source: Refinitiv

DAX CHART TO WATCH: PRIOR SUPPORT NOW RESISTANCE

Sky high inflation prints in the Euro Area, which kicked off with four decade high Spanish data at 9.8% vs Exp. 8%. German CPI prints also notably firmer. Alongside this, with the plethora of ECB speakers talking up the prospect ofending asset purchases in Q3 followed by rates hikes.

Main comment: ECB's Kazimir - Wants ECB to end negative rates in the next 12 months. (money markets see this happening by year end)

In turn, this has prompted a shift in ECB rate expectations, which for the DAX has seen the index begin to stall at resistance (previously support) situated at 14800-15000.

Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Gold Outlook Below Key Support

Source: Refinitiv

 

 

Mar 31, 2022 |  DailyFX
Justin McQueen, Strategist

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      20,128
    • Total Posts
      88,221
    • Total Members
      69,112
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Sherman_Charlie
    Joined 05/10/22 22:47
  • Posts

    • Stock Market SP 500, NASDAQ 100 NDX, Russell 2000 RUT. Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Trading Strategies. US Markets News Today: OPEC+ Agrees to Biggest Oil Production Cut Since Start of Pandemic/ reduce output by 2 million barrels. Elliott Wave Market Summary: The move upwards is a bear market corrective rally, how far it goes is the question and today I take a look a few possibilities  Elliott Wave count: Tracking two wave counts Day / Trend Trading Strategies: No Strategy Video Chapters 00:00 S&P500  16:15 NASDAQ 100 (NDX) 16:36 Russell 2000 (RUT)  21:45 Dow Jones (DJI) 24:35 End. Thanks for supporting! Analyst Peter Mathers TradingLounge™ Australian Financial Services Licence - AFSL 317817 Source: tradinglounge com    
    • Market data to trade on Thursday: Aussie Trade; Levi earnings With the upside risk for forecasts for the Australian trade data, IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor looks at the long trade on the Aussie benchmark, the S&P ASX 200. Earnings out on Thursday include Constellation Brands and Levi Strauss.      
    • Dear All, On the September 22 I could not sell Presto automation stock $PRST.  I have reported that to IG helpdesk, had multiple calls etc. It is not obvious where this process is going and I need my refund money ASAP. I have sent the screenshots etc.
×
×
  • Create New...