Jump to content

Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Gold Outlook Below Key Support


MongiIG

Recommended Posts

GOLD ANALYSIS AND NEWS:

  • Gold Unwinds War Risk Premium
  • Gold Bearish Below Key Support at 1880
  • DAX Chart to Watch: Prior Support Now Resistance

Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Gold Outlook Below Key Support | MENAFN.COM

GOLD UNWINDS WAR RISK PREMIUM

As the mood music improves during peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical risk premium in gold continues to unwind. Keep in mind, prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the outlook was looking rather bleak for the precious metal as the Fed were preparing to embark on the most aggressive tightening cycle in decades. This remains the case given and perhaps even more so as Powell and Co. look to hike rates in 50bps clips. Therefore, it is important for gold traders to once again focus on real yields for direction (Figure 1), which as it stands, points to lower gold prices.

As such, much like my view on risk appetite (S&P 500 fading rallies), in the absence of further geopolitical escalations, the focus will shift towards the Fed tightening financial conditions.

Gold vs US 10Y Real Yields

Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Gold Outlook Below Key Support

Source: Refinitiv

GOLD BEARISH BELOW KEY SUPPORT AT 1880

From a technical perspective, gold is neutral and while I am leaning towards the downside in the precious metal. Bearish conviction will grow on a break below 1880, which will also likely confirm a double top from 2070.

Gold Chart: Daily Time Frame

Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Gold Outlook Below Key Support

Source: Refinitiv

DAX CHART TO WATCH: PRIOR SUPPORT NOW RESISTANCE

Sky high inflation prints in the Euro Area, which kicked off with four decade high Spanish data at 9.8% vs Exp. 8%. German CPI prints also notably firmer. Alongside this, with the plethora of ECB speakers talking up the prospect ofending asset purchases in Q3 followed by rates hikes.

Main comment: ECB's Kazimir - Wants ECB to end negative rates in the next 12 months. (money markets see this happening by year end)

In turn, this has prompted a shift in ECB rate expectations, which for the DAX has seen the index begin to stall at resistance (previously support) situated at 14800-15000.

Gold Price Forecast: Bearish Gold Outlook Below Key Support

Source: Refinitiv

 

 

Mar 31, 2022 |  DailyFX
Justin McQueen, Strategist

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      21,595
    • Total Posts
      91,791
    • Total Members
      41,856
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    peret
    Joined 20/03/23 15:09
  • Posts

    • Dow Jones Index (#US30): Key Levels to Watch This Week   Here is my latest structure analysis and key levels to watch this week on ⚠️Dow Jones.   Support 1: 31420 - 31830 area Support 2: 30690 - 30900 area Support 3: 30070 - 30360 area   Resistance 1: 32250 - 32610 area Resistance 2: 33430 - 33660 area   The market is currently stuck between Support 1 & Support 2. The market participants are awaiting the interest rate decision on Wednesday. It will most likely clarify the future direction of the market with a breakout.   Consider the underlined structures for pullback/breakout trading.
    • I used to enjoy playing poker and blackjack at casinos, but my love for gambling turned into an addiction when I started losing more often than winning. It took hitting rock bottom for me to seek help and change my habits. I joined a support group and worked with a therapist to develop healthier habits. Now, I still go to casinos, but I do so with caution and moderation, setting strict limits and avoiding addictive games. I've learned to control my impulses and make smarter decisions when it comes to my finances.
    • Hi @MayorofBelsize and All,  After checking with the relevant team, the integration will be finalized to mid year. It will be a staggered launch so not all countries will get access at the same time. We will confirm the details of the integration and the date by email to all our clients. We apologize for the delay and inconvenience.  All the best, OfentseIG
×
×
  • Create New...