Jump to content

Japanese yen wallows near historical lows against the US dollar and the Swiss franc


Recommended Posts

USD/JPY made 20-year high last week within an ascending trend; CHF/JPY has consolidated recently but another big move might happen while a lower JPY could be inevitable.

1651546072682.pngSource: Bloomberg
 
Daniel McCarthy | Strategist, | Publication date: Tuesday 03 May 2022 

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is within an ascending trend channel that started in early March. The run higher has seen it make 20-year highs, with last week’s peak of 131.26 a potential resistance level. Above there, the early 2020 highs of 135.01 and 135.16 could offer resistance.

Support may lie at the pivot points of 129.41, 125.68, 125.28 and 125.11. Just below the latter is the 34-day simple moving averages (SMA), which could add support. The most recent low of 127.025 may provide support.

The last few sessions have seen the price action move mostly sideways, but it remains above all daily SMAs across all time periods. This could indicate bullish momentum may continue to evolve.

A move below the five-day SMA could see momentum pause, but it would a move below several SMAs to confirm a turn in momentum.

1651546141636.pngSource: TradingView

CHF/JPY

CHF/JPY has historically exhibited periods of range trading, which is not surprising given the similar underlying fundamental characteristics. A break-out of the range has previously seen a run to new levels before a new range is established.

It’s possible that the recent run higher has paused, and it might be establishing a new range of 131.95 – 136.18, the low and high of the last month. These levels may provide support and resistance respectively.

Further support might lie at the 34-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at 132.55 or a prior low of 130.77 and a pivot point of 129.03. The latter was the August 2015 peak. On the topside, resistance could be at the previous peaks of 134.62, 135.05 and 135.43.

The short-term ten-day SMA has just crossed below the 21-day SMA, which may signal that near term bearish momentum could unfold. The 34- and 55-day SMAs are below the price and have positive gradients, suggesting that underlying bullish momentum remains. This clash of momentum signals might be indicative of a range trading environment for now.

Japanese-Yen-Wallows-Near-Historical-Low
 
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      22,131
    • Total Posts
      93,013
    • Total Members
      42,520
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Mak30
    Joined 06/06/23 09:56
  • Posts

    • Ignoring market expectations for a hold, the RBA hikes rates for the twelfth time in thirteen months, intensifying the scrutiny on economic data and heightening concerns for the struggling ASX 200.   Source: Bloomberg   Indices Inflation Market Data Consumer price index Interest rate  Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 06 June 2023  At its board meeting today, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its official cash rate by 25bp to 4.10%. Once again, the RBA's twelfth rate rise in thirteen months caught the interest rate market on the wrong foot; the market had priced in an 80% chance of a 'hold' outcome. Last month, after surprising the market with a rate rise by 25bp to 3.85%, the RBA noted that inflation remained too high. It issued a warning that further rate increases might occur, depending on economic and inflation trajectories. RBA prioritises inflation management Choosing to disregard softer data in May across the Wage Price Index, labour market data, retail sales and building approvals, the RBA refocused its attention on the upside surprises in the monthly CPI indicator and the wage increase at the Fair Work Commissions Review. This move aligned with the Path of Least Regret, as anticipated here. Today's decision was influenced by a repeated note on inflation from last month's statement, in which the RBA underscored the significance of keeping inflation expectations stable, stating, "Inflation in Australia has passed its peak, but at 7 per cent, it remains too high. It will be some time yet before it re-enters the target range." The RBA maintained its tightening bias and noted that further rate hikes could occur, depending on incoming data. "Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to the target within a reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon how the economy and inflation evolve." Key data points to determine RBA's next move The following incoming data will be closely scrutinised for clues around when and how much further the RBA might tighten. RBA Governor Lowe's speech: Wednesday, 7 June at 09:20 am AEST Q1 2023 GDP: Wednesday, 7 June at 11:30 am AEST (preview available) Labour force report for May: Wednesday, 15 June at 11:30 am AEST RBA Meeting Minutes: Tuesday, 20 June at 11:30 am AEST Monthly CPI indicator for May: Tuesday, 28 June at 11:30 am AEST Retail sales: Thursday, 29 June at 11:30 am AEST The interest rate market is 80% (19bp), priced for another 25bp hike to 4.35% by the September RBA Board Meeting. What happened to the ASX 200? Today's RBA rate hike is another RBA hammer hit to the ASX 200, already trading 36 points lower at 7180 (-0.5%), before the meeting following a weak lead from offshore markets. Post the announcement, the ASX 200 dropped another 55 points to a low of 7125, led by the Consumer-facing Discretionary (-2.1%) and Staples (-1.14%) Sectors. Also weighing on the index, a 1.3% fall in the heavyweight Financial Index, heavily exposed to struggling households facing cost-of-living pressures and rising interest rates. A break of support at 7115 (the 200-day moving average) and last week's 7077 low would be problematic and lead to a test of year-to-date lows at 6900. ASX 200 daily chart   Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of June 6, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.
    • Monster Beverage Corp., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Monster Beverage Corp., (MNST:NASDAQ): Daily Chart, 6 June 23, MNST Stock Market Analysis: Looking for upside into wave (v) as we anticipated last week. We are looking for continuation higher even if we could double correct lower into wave (iv). MNST Elliott Wave Count: Wave (v) of {iii}. MNST Technical Indicators: Above all averages. MNST Trading Strategy: Looking for upside resumption into wave i to then look for long on the pullback in (ii). TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta       Monster Beverage Corp., MNST: 4-hour Chart, 6 June 23 Monster Beverage Corp., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis MNST Stock Market Analysis: It looks like we could be near the top of potential wave i to then pullback in wave ii. MNST Elliott Wave count: Wave i of (v). MNST Technical Indicators: Above all averages. MNST Trading Strategy: Looking for upside as suggested.
    • Early Morning Call: AUD jumps as RBA hikes cash rate to 4.1% A survey published last Friday said economists expected the Reserve Bank of Australia to stay put, forecasting the cash rate to reach 4.1% only by end of the third quarter.  Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Tuesday 06 June 2023 Indices overview US equity markets ended the session lower on Monday evening. The S&P 500 was up in the first part of the day and the market hoped the index would end the day in bull market territory. In APAC, indices mostly rose. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost ground as Australia's central bank unexpectedly raised interest rates by a quarter point, taking the cash rate to 4.1%. A Reuters survey published last Friday said economists expected the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to stay put, forecasting the cash rate to reach 4.1% only by end of the third quarter (Q3). A hawkish RBA added in its statement that some further tightening could be required to tame inflation, currently pointing at 7% year-on-year (YoY). The labour market also remains tight: the unemployment rate is at its lowest point in nearly half a century. The reaction of the Australian dollar was instantaneous. The currency jumped to a two-week high against the greenback, a four month high against the New Zealand dollar, and a six month high against the yen. Macroeconomics British retail sales unexpectedly slowed in May to a seventh-month low, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC). Spending at BRC's members' stores rose 3.9% year-on-year, below the 5.2% recorded in April. The actual reading also missed an estimate of 5.2%. This weak consumption trend is unlikely to change in coming months according to the BRC Cchief executive, Helen Dickinson. Food was the only area where consumers spent more last month, because of two bank holidays and the long weekend of King Charles' Coronation. Shoppers reined in spending on non-essential items. The latest official figures revealed that food price inflation remained near a 46-year high at 19.1% and show little sign of coming down in the near future. This gives ammunition to the Bank of England (BoE) to continue to tighten. The Bank of England reiterated it will keep raising interest rates if inflation looks persistent. The bank is expected to increase to 4.75% from 4.5% at its next meeting on June 22, the market currently sees interest rates peaking at 5.5% later this year. In Germany, factory orders fell by 0.4% in April month-on-month (MoM), after -10.7% in March. Economists had anticipated a 3% rise. Retail sales in the eurozone are expected to increase by 0.2% in April MoM after a 1.2% drop in March. Apple Apple unveiled at its annual developer conference yesterday what CEO Tim Cook called "the first Apple product you look through, not at". Called the Vision Pro, it is a new virtual reality headset, that investors already see as the group's riskiest bet since the introduction of the iPhone. Why? First because of its price. Starting at $3,499, it's more than three times the cost of the priciest of its competitors, the Meta Quest Pro. Risky also because Apple enters a market that is crowded with devices that are struggling to gain traction with consumers. Currently, the virtual reality market is dominated by Meta, which controls about 80% of the market, and many see this latest Apple venture as the next episode of years of clashes between the two companies. Apple said it has been working with Adobe and Microsoft to put their apps on the new headset. Set for release early next year in the US, owners will also have access to Disney+ streaming service and Apple TV+. Besides the headset, Apple unveiled a new 15-inch MacBook Air and a powerful chip called M2 Ultra. It hardly excited investors though. The stock set a new all-time high ahead of the launch but ended the session down on the IG platform.   This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.
×
×
  • Create New...