Jump to content

EUR/USD Latest – Ranging Ahead of Next Week’s US Data and FOMC Minutes


Recommended Posts

EUR/USD PRICE, CHART, AND ANALYSIS

  • US data and FOMC minutes next week will drive EUR/USD.
  • Massive build of weekly trader EUR/USD net-short positions.

EUR/USD, AUD/USD and EUR/GBP slip on escalating tensions between Russia and  Ukraine | Levels to Watch | IG EN

Next week’s economic calendar is packed full of high importance US data and events which will add an extra dose of volatility to the US dollar. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes will give the market a clearer understanding of various members’ thoughts on the current state of the US economy and the path of future rate hikes, just one day before the first look at US Q2 GDP. On Thursday, the Fed’s preferred inflation reading PCE will highlight the growing pressures in the US. All of these events/releases are likely to add extra volatility to USD pairs.

EUR/USD Latest – Ranging Ahead of Next Week’s US Data and FOMC Minutes

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the DailyFX Calendar

 

The US dollar (DXY) is consolidating its recent rally that saw the USD touch levels last seen in December 2002. With a lot of the expected US rate hikes already baked into the greenback, an extra driver/s will be needed if fresh highs are to be made. The downside for the DXY looks limited with 102.25 as the first point of support. Below here 100.94 comes into play.

US DOLLAR (DXY) DAILY PRICE CHART MAY 20, 2022

EUR/USD Latest – Ranging Ahead of Next Week’s US Data and FOMC Minutes

The daily EUR/USD chart shows the pair nearing a cluster of prior tops all the way up to 1.0655 and these are unlikely to be broken convincingly ahead of next week’s US data releases. The 106.36 level is a double bottom made in mid-March 2020 that sparked a rally all the way to the January 4, 2021 high of 1.2334. Volatility in EUR/USD is high, using the 14-day ATR, while the CCI indicator suggests that the market is entering overbought territory.

EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART – MAY 20, 2022

EUR/USD Latest – Ranging Ahead of Next Week’s US Data and FOMC Minutes

Retail trader data show 65.68% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.91 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 7.34% lower than yesterday and 18.00% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.08% higher than yesterday and 46.27% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

image.png

What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?

 

May 20, 2022 |  DailyFX
Nick Cawley, Strategist

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      19,106
    • Total Posts
      85,946
    • Total Members
      68,306
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Vayor
    Joined 07/07/22 04:39
  • Posts

    • Bitcoin USD price, analysis (live) charts, news videos. Learn about BTC Elliott Wave bitcoin cryptocurrency, crypto trading. Bitcoin Headline News Today: Bank of America's Crypto traders drop 50% in this bear Market Crypto Market Summary Elliott Wave Analysis : Elliott Wave c of (ii)  or c of (iv) corrective rally in line with the tech stocks Bitcoin Trading Strategy: Today I' looking at both the bearish and bullish Elliott wave counts and pointing out at what point they confirm as bullish or bearish. Analyst Peter Mathers TradingLounge™ Australian Financial Services Licence - AFSL 317817 Source: tradinglounge com    
    • While the Fed minutes last night stressed that more rate hikes would be needed, signs of weakness in commodity prices have given markets hope that perhaps the worst of the inflation surge is now behind us. Markets can, perhaps, cope with rate rises as long as the outlook further down the road is looking brighter. Asian indices made headway, taking their cue from the recovery in the US yesterday after a shaky couple of days. In the UK the political drama drags on, with no sign that the Prime Minister intends to resign yet even as resignations continue to flow from his cabinet and the wider government payroll. Investors now begin to turn their attention towards Friday's payroll figures, the main event of the week.   
    • For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage:   Indices: Mostly higher, Europe expected up at the start… all this despite FOMC minutes and IMF highlighting the need for higher rates FX: USD remains strong after the FOMC minutes indicated more big rise in US rates to come.  AUDUSD climbs after expanded Aussie trade surplus   Equities: Earnings PSN CURY JDW. Watching  IAG as BA cancels a further 10,300 flights this summer Commods: Oil up after 3mth lows. Gold 10mth lows. Coffee Robusta 11mth lows      
×
×
  • Create New...