Jump to content

ECB Holds Rates, Setting up July and September for Fireworks


Recommended Posts

ECB HOLDS RATES, EYES 25 AND 50 BPS HIKES IN JULY AND SEPTEMBER

The ECB held true to its forward guidance and sequencing whereby it foresaw a rate hike only after APP comes to an end, meaning July is when we are very likely to witness lift-off.

Breaking News: ECB Holds Rates, Setting up July and September for Fireworks

Times are in GMT+2

Customize and filter live economic data via our DaliyFX economic calendar

 

PERTINENT POINTS OF THE 9 JUNE ECB MEETING:

  • Rates left unchanged but the ECB intends to raise by 25 basis points in July
  • ECB intends to reinvest, in full, principal payments of maturing securities under both APP and PEPP. PEPP reinvestments to continue until end of 2024 at a minimum while leaving APP reinvestments open-ended. Purchases under PEPP could be resumed if necessary to counter negative shocks related to the pandemic.
  • Real Annual GDP growth: 2.8% 2020, 2.1% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024
  • ECB Inflation forecast 6.8% in 2022, 3.5% in 2023 and 2.1% in 2024
  • "If medium-term inflation outlook persists/deteriorates, a larger than 25 bps hike will be appropriate for the September meeting"

EUR/USD rose in the lead up to the announcement, shot below 1.070 and subsequently recovered and is trading right where it was moment before the news.

EUR/USD 5 Minute Chart

Breaking News: ECB Holds Rates, Setting up July and September for Fireworks

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

The justification behind a 50 basis point hike in July is gaining momentum by the day as HICP inflation more than doubled the previous high of 4% in 2008. Something that the Bank is trying to avoid is fragmentation in the bond market – a situation where sovereign bond spreads within the EU widen, disproportionately raising borrowing costs for the more heavily indebted nations like Spain, Italy and Greece.

CPI Inflation Data Across Selected Major Economies

Breaking News: ECB Holds Rates, Setting up July and September for Fireworks

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

 

 

Jun 9, 2022 | DailyFX
Richard Snow, Analyst

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Scrolling through Bitget's Twitter feed today, I stumbled upon something interesting: the upcoming listing of the BLAST token. A quick search revealed a project with some intriguing features, particularly its focus on native yields for ETH and stablecoins. This Layer 2 solution built on Ethereum seems to address some major pain points in the DeFi space.     By leveraging the Shanghai update, it offers auto-rebasing for ETH and T-Bill yields for stablecoins, all while aiming to reduce transaction fees significantly. Plus, it boasts a team with a solid track record and backing from well-respected investment firms. So, what do you guys think? Is BLAST the next big thing in DeFi, or is it just another layer 2 solution in a crowded market? With the token listing soon on Bitget, I'm curious to hear your thoughts on its potential impact on the crypto space.  
    • Ethereum's popularity is undeniable, but its congested network can be frustrating for users due to slow transaction speeds and high fees. Layer-2 solutions like Blast aim to tackle this by offering faster, cheaper transactions without compromising security. Blast takes things a step further by providing native yields for both ETH and stablecoins, simplifying the staking process for users. Similar solutions like Polygon and Arbitrum also offer scalability benefits, but Blast's unique yield generation and focus on bridging real-world assets to DeFi set it apart. This creates an environment where users can earn passive income while enjoying the advantages of a faster and more affordable network. Blast's native token is set to be listing on Bitget June 26th, this could further increase its visibility and adoption within the DeFi community The competition in the layer-2 space is fierce, each platform vying to become the go-to solution for smoother DeFi experiences. What are your thoughts on Blast and its approach? Share your experiences with other layer-2 solutions and let's discuss the future of scaling Ethereum.
    • Coffee Elliott Wave Analysis Function - Counter-Trend Mode - Correction Structure - Double Zigzag for blue Y Position - Wave C of (B) Direction - Wave C of (B) is still in progress Details - We recounted Coffee on all time frames. However, we expect the commodity to ascend after completing the zigzag wave (B) around the Fibonacci reversal zone of 212.9-203.9. Invalidation level is at 192.30. Coffee Elliott Wave Analysis Overview: In the long term, Coffee prices have been on a bullish run since October 2023. Despite several pullbacks, each previous top has been consistently breached. The last top was made in April 2024 at 245.5, followed by a decline to 192.3 within three weeks, extending to May 7th. Notable recoveries started from there. However, prices have yet to breach 245.5 to confirm the continuation of the bullish sequence from October 2023.   Daily Chart Analysis: Since January 2023, a double zigzag structure has been unfolding. Wave W (circled) finished on April 18th at 245.5, and the corresponding wave X (circled) was completed at 192.3 on May 7th, where wave Y (circled) began. Wave (A) of Y appears to have concluded with the impulse surge to the current peak in June 2024. Prices are now correcting into wave (B). If wave (B) completes above 192.3, buyers should gain the advantage to push prices higher, especially above the 245.5 top.   H4 Chart Analysis: On the H4 chart, wave (B) is subdividing into a zigzag structure, potentially completing around the 212.9-203.9 Fibonacci zone before turning upside in wave (C) above 245.5. Alternatively, prices might move sideways between the 245.5 and 192.3 extremes, suggesting a triangle structure for wave X (circled).   Summary: In conclusion, Coffee prices remain bullish with potential for further gains, contingent on the completion of the current corrective wave (B). Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
×
×
  • Create New...
us