Jump to content

British Pound (GBP) Forecast: 50bps Rate Hike Off the Table as UK Unemployment Rises?

Recommended Posts


  • Weakening UK labor market.
  • Upcoming Federal Reserve and BoE Rate decisions.
  • Key cable support looks vulnerable.
British Pound (GBP) Forecast: 50bps Rate Hike Off the Table as UK  Unemployment Rises?


Earlier this morning, UK jobs data was released with employment change for March beating estimates while the unemployment statistic missed (see calendar below). Wage growth via average earnings also missed forecasts adding support to the less hawkish bias. Initial reaction saw the pound weaken against the greenback after an ease in the labor market could be the start of an economic shift. Later today, U.S. PPI will close off the event list before tomorrow’s key FOMC rate decision.


economic calendar

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

While there is much talk around a possible 75bps hike from the Fed, a 50bps jump could dampen dollar strength while the Bank of England (BoE) may be skewed towards the 25bps jump as opposed to the possibility of 50bps prior to today’s unemployment figure. The previous BoE announcement saw three officials vote for a 50bps hike and could remain the same this time around however, a majority vote for half a percentage point is unlikely in my opinion and would really come as a surprise.


bank of england BoE rate decision

Source: Refinitiv



Jun 14, 2022 | DailyFX
Warren Venketas, Analyst

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    • Most Online
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Joined 22/09/23 16:31
  • Posts

    • Bitcoin and other major crypto experienced a dip in value on Thursday, erasing gains made earlier in the week. The decline came after the Federal Reserve signaled that interest rates would remain high for an extended period, with Bitcoin retreating 2.3% to $26.5K. Despite the bearish pressure,  the founder and CEO of Bitcoin joint mining company Xive,  Didar stated that the stagnant rate increase is positive for Bitcoin. He suggested that this could reduce the attractiveness of mainstream financial assets to institutional investors in the long term, potentially driving a new rally in Bitcoin's price. Major altcoins and exchange tokens also struggled on Thursday, with ETH changing hands at $1,585, down about 2.6% from Wednesday. Other altcoins such as BNB and BGB also experienced losses. Despite these challenges, some analysts believe that Bitcoin is likely to remain within its recent range between $25,000 and $30,000. Riyad from digital asset data platform Kaiko, noted that the market needs a catalyst to mount any serious rally.  What are your thoughts? 
    • Traditional banking systems served as the gatekeepers of financial services for long, dictating how people access loans, save, and invest in opportunities. Typically controlled by a centralized system with a single authority such as a bank or government in total charge, this centralization is limited by high fees, restricted accessibility and slow transaction speed. Dentralized finance, DeFi, got introduced as a blockchain-based financial system that removes intermediaries or central authorities, and utilizes smart contracts instead. By eliminating intermediaries, DeFi delivers core benefits like improved accessibility into the financial system for everyone having internet connection regardless of their location. DeFi is also valued for its transparency. While traditional banking system often deny customers audits on how their assets are being managed, DeFi, through the help of blockchain allows anyone access to tracking and auditing transactions, thereby raising trust. Furthermore, DeFi also offers various financial services and products like DEX, lending and borrowing, stablecoins etc, all known to proffer varied innovative solutions, while operating 24/7 in contrast to traditional finance. DeFi isn’t flawless as issues like insecurity, lack of consumer protection etc are still prevalent; however, the growth of DeFi has been impressive; since its introduction, the total value locked in DeFi protocols has grown significantly indicating that the demand for DeFi services is fast growing. DeFi seems to be redefining financial industry by offering an alternative to traditional banking systems. With the increasing adoption, can we expect to see an overhaul in the way we access financial services?        
    • Leverage is good but please use it according to your risk management system coz the higher the leverage the higher the risk, I trade my perpetual futures on Bitget tho, the exchange offers high leverage but I only use according to my risk management system.
  • Create New...