Jump to content

British Pound (GBP) Forecast: 50bps Rate Hike Off the Table as UK Unemployment Rises?


Recommended Posts

POUND STERLING TALKING POINTS

  • Weakening UK labor market.
  • Upcoming Federal Reserve and BoE Rate decisions.
  • Key cable support looks vulnerable.
British Pound (GBP) Forecast: 50bps Rate Hike Off the Table as UK  Unemployment Rises?

GBP/USD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

Earlier this morning, UK jobs data was released with employment change for March beating estimates while the unemployment statistic missed (see calendar below). Wage growth via average earnings also missed forecasts adding support to the less hawkish bias. Initial reaction saw the pound weaken against the greenback after an ease in the labor market could be the start of an economic shift. Later today, U.S. PPI will close off the event list before tomorrow’s key FOMC rate decision.

EUR/GBP ECONOMIC CALENDAR

economic calendar

Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar

While there is much talk around a possible 75bps hike from the Fed, a 50bps jump could dampen dollar strength while the Bank of England (BoE) may be skewed towards the 25bps jump as opposed to the possibility of 50bps prior to today’s unemployment figure. The previous BoE announcement saw three officials vote for a 50bps hike and could remain the same this time around however, a majority vote for half a percentage point is unlikely in my opinion and would really come as a surprise.

BOE IMPLIED RATE PROBABILITIES

bank of england BoE rate decision

Source: Refinitiv

 

 


Jun 14, 2022 | DailyFX
Warren Venketas, Analyst

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Bitcoin's rally is fueling gains across the market. Here are 3 altcoins with breakout potential:   Fetch.ai (FET): Bullish triangle pattern hints at a surge to $3.48 or even $5 by month's end. Floki (FLOKI): Recent breakout suggests a climb to $0.00045, capitalizing on meme coin momentum. **** (****): Inverted head & shoulders pattern forming, potentially driving price to $0.000071.   Could these be the next big crypto moonshots, or are they headed for a fall? Read the full article here for a more detailed analysis of each altcoin, including charts and technical indicators: https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/memecoins-for-3x-profits-by-the-end-of-may/
    • Bitcoin (BTC) is breaking out, surging nearly 10% in a week and reclaiming the $67,000 level. This bullish trend has ignited questions about whether a new all-time high, or even the psychological barrier of $100,000, is within reach. Key Points:   Post-Halving Rally Echo: The current surge resembles past post-halving rallies, where Bitcoin's price historically jumps after its block reward gets reduced. This scarcity could be driving the current upswing.   Technical Indicators Support Bullish Outlook: Daily charts hint at a potential breakout from a resistance trendline, signifying the end of a corrective phase. Additionally, bullish signals emerge from technical indicators like VI lines and ADX. Fibonacci Levels Suggest Six-Figure Target: Based on Fibonacci levels, a significant price increase is on the table. If the momentum holds, a moonshot to $100,000 this year seems achievable. However, some analysts predict a more conservative target of $77,842 by Q2 2024.   AI Predicts Bullish Q2, But How Bullish?:  The analysis incorporates predictions from ChatGPT. While many expected a bullish forecast, ChatGPT surprised with a potential rally to a staggering $87,613 by the end of June! Is Bitcoin on the cusp of a historic bull run, or is this just a temporary spike?   Read the full article here for a deeper dive into the technical analysis, expert opinions, and a closer look at the AI's prediction:  https://coinpedia.org/price-analysis/chatgpt-predicts-how-high-can-bitcoin-price-rally-in-q2-2024/    
    • Pepe, the meme coin, has dropped 12% after reaching record highs earlier this week. This has investors wondering if it's a good time to buy. Why Did Pepe Surge? The Pepe price jump was linked to the return of an online personality known as "Roaring Kitty," who was a key figure in the meme stock craze of 2021. This triggered excitement around Pepe, similar to what happened with meme stocks back then. Is Now the Time to Buy Pepe? Experts say it might be a bit early. While the price has dropped, it's still significantly higher than usual. Instead of buying now, investors might want to wait for a retest of a specific price point (around $0.00000920) which could offer better buying opportunities. Why Are Some Investors Still Bullish on Pepe? Despite the recent drop, many believe Pepe has room to grow. Here's why: Popularity: Pepe is gaining popularity, which could drive the price up. Market Cap: Compared to other meme coins like Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, Pepe's market cap is still relatively low. This means there's potential for significant growth.  
×
×
  • Create New...
us