Jump to content

Brent crude and WTI oil price forecasts: IEA expects demand to increase in 2023


MongiIG

Recommended Posts

Brent and WTI (US) crude oil prices are expected to rebalance in 2022, before demand increases past pre-pandemic levels in 2023.

OilSource: Bloomberg
 
 Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Friday 17 June 2022 

The IEA expects oil prices to rebalance this year, although risks remain

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its Oil Market Report for June 2022.

Some of the key takeaways from the report are as follows:

  • Slowing demand growth and a rise in oil supply through to the end of the year should help balance the market
  • A weaker economic outlook and elevated prices temper demand expectations this year
  • Primary risks to oil prices are from the implementation of increased sanctions on Russia, a post lockdown demand recovery from China, sharp Libyan production losses persisting and Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) extra production capacity waning
  • Oil demand is expected to rise to 101.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, ahead of pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels
  • The recovery in oil demand in 2023 is expected to be driven by resurgent growth in China, offsetting softer demand from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries

Brent Crude Oil

Brent Crude Oil chartSource: IG charts

 

The price of Brent Crude remains in a longer-term uptrend. This is highlighted by the price continuing to trade well above the 200 day simple moving average (SMA) represented by the blue line.

In the short term our black trend line marks a near-term uptrend as well. Traders respecting the upward trend might prefer to keep a long bias to trades on the commodity.

A price close (on a daily time frame) above the 12340 level could unlock further gains with the next resistance target considered at the 12950 level.

In the event that we instead see a move lower and break of trend line support, we would not be looking to trade the move lower, but rather waiting for a bullish price reversal at one of our lower support levels for long entry.

WTI (US) Crude

WTI (US) Crude chartSource: IG charts

 

The long-term trend for US crude oil remains up similarly to its Brent crude counterpart. The price is currently grinding lower in the near term from overbought territory. This serves as a short term correction of a longer term uptrend.

In line with the longer-term uptrend, we currently prefer keeping a long bias to trades on the commodity. Long entry would be considered on either a bullish price reversal closer towards either the 11150 or trend line support levels.

Alternatively long entry may be considered on an upside break of the 12100 resistance level as well, with a longer term upside resistance target considered at the 12800 level.

Only on a move below the major low at roughly 9800 would we reassess our longer-term upside bias currently favoured on trades of the commodity.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      23,020
    • Total Posts
      95,391
    • Total Members
      43,634
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Zak
    Joined 27/09/23 12:55
  • Posts

    • Lam Research Corp., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Lam Research Corp., (LRCX:NASDAQ): Daily Chart, 27 September 23 LRCX Stock Market Analysis: Looking for upside into wave {v} as we seem to be near the end of the correction into wave {iv}. We could find support on the base channel before turning higher.   LRCX Elliott Wave Count: Wave (c) of {iv}. LRCX Technical Indicators: Between 20 and 200EMA.   LRCX Trading Strategy: Looking for longs into wave {v}. TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta         Lam Research Corp., LRCX: 4-hour Chart, 27 September 23 Lam Research Corp., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis LRCX Stock Market Analysis: Looking for wave (c) to end within equality and 1.618 (c) vs.(a). We can also look at the current RSI divergence we are seeing.   LRCX Elliott Wave count:  Wave v of (c). LRCX Technical Indicators: Below al averages.   LRCX Trading Strategy: Looking for longs into wave {v} after upside confirmation.
    • AUDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day  Chart, 27 September 23 Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen(AUDJPY) Day Chart AUDJPY Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter Trend Mode: impulsive Structure: blue wave 3 of C Position:  black wave C Direction Next lower Degrees: wave (3 of C) continue Details: blue corrective wave 2 looking completed at 96.083.now blue wave 3 started and strong move expected . Wave Cancel invalid level:96.081   The AUD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis on 27 September 23, examines the Day Chart of the Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen (AUD/JPY) currency pair. This analysis utilizes Elliott Wave theory to provide insights into potential market trends and price movements.   The analysis identifies its Function as "Counter Trend," indicating a focus on identifying and interpreting market movements that run contrary to the prevailing trend. In this context, "counter trend" suggests an emphasis on potential reversals or corrective movements within the market.   The Mode is characterized as "impulsive," which implies an anticipation of strong and directional price movement. Specifically, the analysis expects an impulsive wave sequence within the market, suggesting the potential for significant and decisive price shifts.   The Market Structure is described as "blue wave 3 of C." This highlights the importance of the third wave within a broader C-wave structure in the Elliott Wave sequence. It signifies that the analysis is centered on the development of this specific wave.   The Position specifies that the analysis pertains to "black wave C," indicating that the entire C-wave structure is of interest in the analysis. This means that the broader context of the C-wave is taken into consideration.   The Direction Next Lower Degrees points to "wave (3 of C) continue," signifying that the analysis is focused on the continuation of the third sub-wave within the larger C-wave structure.   In the Details section, it is observed that "blue corrective wave 2" is deemed to have completed its course at the level of 96.083. The market is now in the phase of "blue wave 3," and a strong price movement is expected as part of this impulsive phase. The "Wave Cancel invalid level" is specified as 96.081, serving as a reference point for risk management and potential trade entry points.   In summary, the AUD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis on 27 September 23, suggests that the market is currently undergoing a counter-trend phase with an anticipated impulsive price movement in the form of "blue wave 3 of C." Traders are advised to closely monitor this wave for potential trading opportunities, with the specified invalid level serving as a reference for risk management within their trading strategies.
    • AUDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4 Hour  Chart, 27 September 23 Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen(AUDJPY) 4 Hour Chart AUDJPY Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter Trend Mode: impulsive Structure: blue wave 3 of C Position:  black wave C Direction Next lower Degrees: wave (3 of C) continue Details: blue corrective wave 2 looking completed at 96.083.now blue wave 3 started . Wave Cancel invalid level:95.822   The AUD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis on 27 September 23, focuses on the 4-hour chart of the Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen (AUD/JPY) currency pair. This analysis applies Elliott Wave theory to assess potential market trends and price movements.   The identified Function is "Counter Trend," signifying an emphasis on identifying and interpreting market movements that run contrary to the prevailing trend. In this context, "counter trend" implies a focus on potential reversals or corrective movements within the market.   The Mode is characterized as "impulsive," suggesting an anticipation of strong and directional price movement. Specifically, the analysis anticipates an impulsive wave sequence within the market, implying the potential for significant price shifts.   The Market Structure is outlined as "blue wave 3 of C." This signifies that the analysis is centered on the development of the third wave within a broader C-wave structure, underscoring its importance in the Elliott Wave sequence.   The Position specifies that the analysis pertains to "black wave C," indicating that the entire C-wave structure is of interest in the analysis.   The Direction Next Lower Degrees points to "wave (3 of C) continue," indicating that the analysis is attentive to the continuation of the third sub-wave within the larger C-wave.   In the Details section, it is noted that "blue corrective wave 2" is deemed completed at the level of 96.083, and the market has now entered the phase of "blue wave 3." The "Wave Cancel invalid level" is specified as 95.822, serving as a reference point for traders to manage risk in their trading strategies.   In summary, the AUD/JPY Elliott Wave Analysis on 27 September 23, suggests that the market is currently in a counter-trend phase with an impulsive movement underway. The focus is on the development of "blue wave 3 of C" within the broader C-wave structure. Traders are advised to monitor this sub-wave for potential trading opportunities, with the specified invalid level serving as a reference for risk management within their trading strategies.  
×
×
  • Create New...
us