Jump to content

Gold, Silver Price Forecast: Retail Traders Remain Long Despite the Downside Risks


Recommended Posts


  • Fundamental analysis hints gold, silver may continue falling
  • Retail trader bets offer upside view on gold, downside for silver
  • How are technicals aligning with the fundamentals, positioning?

Gold and Silver prices have been struggling to find upside momentum in recent weeks amid global efforts from central banks to tame high inflation. This is making for a difficult fundamental environment for these anti-fiat precious metals. How have retail traders been positioning themselves in XAU/USD and XAG/USD amid recent price action and what could that mean for the road ahead? For a deeper dive into the analysis, check out this week’s webinar recording above.


The IGCS gauge shows that about 81% of retail traders are net-long gold. IGCS tends to function as a contrarian indicator. As such, the fact that traders remain net-long hints prices may continue falling. However, short bets have climbed by 2.2% and 20.32% compared to yesterday and last week respectively. With that in mind, recent changes in sentiment warn that gold could reverse higher.

Gold, Silver Price Forecast: Retail Traders Remain Long Despite the Downside Risks


On the daily chart, XAU/USD remains in a downtrend since early March, but recent price action is looking neutral. The yellow metal appears to be consolidating between resistance (1869 – 1879) and support (1787 – 1810). In fact, it seems that gold could form a Bearish Rectangle. Breaking under the range of support could be a sign of downtrend resumption. That would place the focus on lows from December. Otherwise, pushing above resistance could shift the outlook increasingly bullish.

Gold, Silver Price Forecast: Retail Traders Remain Long Despite the Downside Risks

Chart Created in Trading View


The IGCS gauge shows that roughly 95% of retail investors are net-long silver. Since nearly the absolute majority of traders are positioned to the upside, this is a sign that prices may continue falling. Downside exposure has been falling recently, declining by 12.79% and 33.92% versus yesterday and last week respectively. With that in mind, the combination of current readings and recent changes in IGCS hint that Silver may remain biased to the downside.

Gold, Silver Price Forecast: Retail Traders Remain Long Despite the Downside Risks


Similar to gold, silver prices have been in a downtrend since early March. Recent price action has been looking neutral as well. A Bearish Death Cross remains between the 20- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), offering a downside bias. Key support seems to be the May low at 20.46. Clearing the latter exposes the midpoint of the Fibonacci extension at 19.63. Otherwise, clearing resistance (22.20 – 22.51) opens the door to a bullish technical outlook.

Gold, Silver Price Forecast: Retail Traders Remain Long Despite the Downside Risks

Chart Created in Trading View

*IG Client Sentiment Charts and Positioning Data Used from June 21st Report

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com
22 June 2022

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Hi    when I try to buy the tickers SDIV and KBWD the platform does not allow me. This is strange as I have a broker account in France where I can easily buy these products. the MIFID retail legislation is related to CFD and margin, hence the reason must be different, can anybody help me?   Thanks
    • BOOM UP is the ultimate Game-Fi experience on Telegram, offering gamers a chance to earn real profits while immersing themselves in thrilling gameplay, unique art, and social interactions. Say goodbye to time-consuming games and hello to a world where fun meets profitability! By blending traditional gaming with the power of blockchain, BOOM UP is revolutionizing the industry and bridging the gap between Web2 and Web3. Get ready to dive into the future of gaming and experience a whole new level of excitement and rewards! Exciting news – BOOM UP is about to launch on Bitget, taking the crypto world by storm. Don't miss out on the chance to be a part of this groundbreaking project that's set to redefine the gaming and finance landscape. Get ready to level up with BOOM UP on on this exchange and unlock endless possibilities in the world of Game-Fi and NFTs!
    • As crypto adoption explodes in the EU, Bitget is fueling the flames with Builders Meetups – engaging events designed for both crypto veterans and newbies. Imagine learning from the Bitget EU COO Apprentice and crypto bigwigs, then building your network with fellow enthusiasts (potential friends or collaborators!). Plus, expert talks will boost your crypto IQ and there might even be free swag! Bitget goes beyond exchange, fostering the community through educational resources on Bitget Academy and a user-friendly platform that welcomes newcomers to the exciting world of crypto. The "Meet Bitget: Your Gateway to Crypto Trading" event in Bucharest, Romania on July 18th is your chance to dive in – registration is free! Don't miss out and spread the word.
  • Create New...