Jump to content

Gold Prices Finish a Dismal Second Quarter Before the Long Weekend, Where to for XAU/USD?


Recommended Posts

Jul 1, 2022 | DailyFX
Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

GOLD, XAU/USD, IG CLIENT SENTIMENT, US PCE DATA, GLOBAL RECESSION WOES - TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices fell on Thursday despite softer US core PCE data
  • The fundamental backdrop remains tough for the yellow metal
  • Retail traders remain heavily long gold, a bearish market signal

Gold Price Today: Gold prices skid below Rs 49,000-mark on profit booking |  India Business News - Times of India

Gold prices weakened over the past 24 hours, sinking almost 0.6%. It was a soft ending for the second quarter, with the yellow metal weakening 6.66% over the past 3 months. That was the worst performance since the first quarter of 2021. Moreover, XAU/USD remains unchanged from levels achieved in the summer of 2020.

Interestingly, the anti-fiat yellow metal weakened despite a combination of favorable factors. Namely, both the US Dollar and Treasury yields weakened on Thursday. This was in response to softer-than-expected PCE core data. The latter is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, and it showed a sign of cooling underlying price pressures.

That said, sentiment was unable to capitalize on the potential of a less hawkish Fed, perhaps due to rising concerns about a US recession. The Fed is in a tough spot. Due to its inaction on rising inflation from last year, the central bank must pivot more aggressively to compensate for its lack of activity. Moreover, monetary tightening across the globe is not a fundamentally friendly environment for precious metals.

The US Independence Day holiday on Monday is making for a long weekend. Gold volatility could remain subdued before markets close this week. US ISM manufacturing PMI data is due over the remaining 24 hours. A 54.5 outcome is seen for June, down from 56.1 prior. Outside of a material surprise in either direction, XAU/USD may remain glued to prevailing market sentiment

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The decline in gold as of late has brought XAU/USD deeper into the 1787 – 1810 support zone. Clearing this range could be a sign of further pain to come for the yellow metal. Guiding the pair lower has been a falling trendline from March. In the event of a turn higher, this line could reinstate the dominant downside focus. Extending losses would place the focus on the early 2022 low at 1778 before the December low at 1753 comes into play.


XAU/USD DAILY CHART

Gold Prices Finish a Dismal Second Quarter Before the Long Weekend, Where to for XAU/USD?

Chart Created Using TradingView

Link to comment

Gold Price Technical Forecast: Gold Vulnerable into July

Jun 30, 2022 | DailyFX
Michael Boutros, Strategist

GOLD TECHNICAL PRICE FORECAST: XAU/USD WEEKLY TRADE LEVELS

Gold Prices Today: Yellow metal to remain range-bound amid volatility as US  inflation data and RBI meeting in focus

Gold prices plunged 0.5% this week with XAU/USD on pace for a third consecutive weekly sell-off into the close of June. The decline takes prices below a key support pivot we’ve been tracking for months now and the threat remains for a deeper correction towards longer-term uptrend support heading into the July / Q3 open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly technical price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • KOSPI Composite Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day Chart KOSPI Composite Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Bullish Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Orange wave 3 POSITION: Navy blue wave 1 DIRECTION NEXT HIGHER DEGREES: Orange wave 3 (started) CANCEL INVALID LEVEL: 2381.93 The KOSPI Composite Elliott Wave analysis on the daily chart indicates a bullish trend is present. The market is currently in an impulsive mode, indicating strong upward movement in the price. The structure under observation is orange wave 3, with the present position in navy blue wave 1. This pattern suggests the early stages of a larger upward movement. At this point, orange wave 2 appears to be completed. Now, orange wave 3 has started and is actively progressing. This wave continues the bullish trend, pointing to a further upward price movement. The end of wave 2 marks a transition from the corrective phase back into the impulsive and bullish direction. The next higher degrees align with the ongoing orange wave 3, signifying that the market is anticipated to continue rising. Typically, wave 3 is the strongest and most extended in an Elliott Wave sequence, hinting at substantial upward momentum ahead. A crucial level to monitor is the wave cancellation invalidation point, set at 2381.93. If the price falls below this level, it would invalidate the current Elliott Wave structure, necessitating a reevaluation of the market trend. However, as long as the price stays above this level, the bullish scenario remains in place, with the potential for continued upward gains. In summary, the KOSPI Composite is currently experiencing a bullish trend with orange wave 3 in progress. The completion of orange wave 2 signals the start of further upward momentum. As long as the price remains above the invalidation level of 2381.93, the bullish outlook remains valid.   KOSPI Composite Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Weekly Chart KOSPI Composite Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Bullish Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Orange wave 3 POSITION: Navy blue wave 1 DIRECTION NEXT HIGHER DEGREES: Orange wave 3 (started) CANCEL INVALID LEVEL: 2381.93 The KOSPI Composite Elliott Wave analysis on the weekly chart highlights a bullish trend. The market is in impulsive mode, reflecting strong upward momentum. The structure currently under observation is orange wave 3, with the present position at navy blue wave 1, indicating that the upward movement is still in its early stages. Orange wave 2 seems to have completed, and now orange wave 3 has begun, signaling the continuation of bullish momentum. Orange wave 3, being a key component of the Elliott Wave structure, often corresponds with substantial upward price movement, suggesting that the market may experience significant gains during this phase. The next higher degrees follow the ongoing orange wave 3, which indicates that the market is likely to sustain its upward trend. This wave is typically the strongest and longest in the Elliott Wave sequence, making it vital for confirming the bullish outlook. A critical invalidation level is set at 2381.93. Should the price fall below this level, the current Elliott Wave structure would be invalidated, raising doubts about the strength of the bullish trend. However, as long as the price remains above this level, the bullish trend continues, with the potential for further upward movement. In summary, the KOSPI Composite is in a bullish trend on the weekly chart, with orange wave 3 actively in progress. The completion of orange wave 2 supports the beginning of a new upward phase. As long as the price stays above the invalidation level of 2381.93, the market is expected to maintain its strong bullish movement. Technical Analyst : Malik Awais Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • GBPAUD Elliott Wave Analysis - Daily Chart Overview GBPAUD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Trend: Bearish Mode: Impulsive Structure: Navy blue wave 3 Position: Gray wave 1 Next Direction: Lower levels, navy blue wave 3 in progress Wave Cancellation Invalid Level: 2.00400 Analysis Breakdown The GBPAUD Elliott Wave analysis on the daily chart indicates a bearish trend. The current mode of the market is impulsive, suggesting strong downward price movement. The structure being tracked is navy blue wave 3, which indicates continued downward momentum aligning with the overall trend. At this point, the pair is positioned within gray wave 1, which is a part of the larger navy blue wave 3 that has already started. This suggests that the market is in the early stages of a downward impulsive wave, with further declines expected as the wave unfolds. The analysis suggests that navy blue wave 2, a corrective phase, appears to be completed. With the conclusion of this corrective wave, navy blue wave 3 has now taken over, marking the resumption of the larger bearish trend. As this wave progresses, the price is expected to continue moving lower, further reinforcing the broader downtrend. Moreover, a wave cancellation invalid level is provided at 2.00400. If the price rises above this level, the current Elliott Wave structure and the bearish forecast would be invalidated, necessitating a re-evaluation of the market outlook. However, as long as the price stays below this level, the downtrend remains intact, and further declines are expected as part of navy blue wave 3. Summary The GBPAUD daily chart analysis reveals a strong bearish trend with the impulsive navy blue wave 3 currently unfolding. The completion of navy blue wave 2 signals a return to a downward move, and as long as the price stays below the invalidation level of 2.00400, the bearish outlook remains in place.   GBPAUD Elliott Wave Analysis - 4-Hour Chart Overview GBPAUD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Trend: Bearish Mode: Impulsive Structure: Navy blue wave 3 Position: Gray wave 1 Next Direction: Lower levels, navy blue wave 3 in progress Wave Cancellation Invalid Level: 2.00400 Analysis Breakdown The GBPAUD Elliott Wave analysis on the 4-hour chart indicates a bearish trend. The market is in an impulsive mode, which signals strong downward momentum. The current structure being tracked is navy blue wave 3, which points to further downside movement in alignment with the broader bearish trend. The market is currently positioned in gray wave 1, a part of the larger navy blue wave 3 that has already started. This suggests that the market is within the early phases of a downward impulsive wave, with additional price declines expected as the wave continues to unfold. The completion of navy blue wave 2, which was a corrective phase, has paved the way for navy blue wave 3 to take over. This shift marks the start of a new downward impulsive movement, expected to push prices further down as part of the overall trend. The analysis also highlights a wave cancellation invalid level at 2.00400. If the price rises above this level, the current Elliott Wave count would become invalid, requiring a re-evaluation of the market outlook. However, if the price remains below this level, the bearish trend will likely continue, and further downside movement can be expected within navy blue wave 3. Summary The GBPAUD 4-hour chart shows a strong bearish trend, with navy blue wave 3 currently unfolding. The completion of navy blue wave 2 signals the beginning of a new downward impulsive wave. As long as the price stays below the invalidation level of 2.00400, the bearish outlook remains intact, with continued downside movement expected. Technical Analyst : Malik Awais Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • ASX: XERO LIMITED - XRO Elliott Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge (1D Chart) Greetings, Our Elliott Wave analysis today updates the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) with XERO LIMITED - XRO. We see XERO LIMITED developing under a Diagonal, and in the short term, it could continue to push higher. ASX: XERO LIMITED - XRO 1D Chart (Semilog Scale) Analysis Function: Major trend (Minute degree, navy)  Mode: Motive  Structure: Impulse  Position: Wave (v)-orange of Wave (i)-navy  Details: Perhaps the whole pattern is developing as a Diagonal, and since the low of 126.69, the (v)-orange wave is continuing to push higher as a Zigzag. The maximum target it can reach is lower than the high at 157.45.  Invalidation point: 138.60 ASX: XERO LIMITED - XRO  Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge (4-Hour Chart) ASX: XERO LIMITED - XRO  Elliott Wave Technical Analysis  ASX: XERO LIMITED - XRO  4-Hour Chart Analysis Function: Major trend (Minute degree, navy)  Mode: Motive  Structure: Impulse  Position: Wave c-grey of Wave (iv)-orange Details: Since the low at 126.68, the (v)-orange wave is pushing higher as a Zigzag within the larger-degree Diagonal pattern. It itself looks like it just completed the b-grey wave at the low at 138.60, and the c-grey wave is unfolding to push higher, targeting the immediate target at the high at 149.70.  Invalidation point: 138.60 Conclusion: Our analysis, forecast of contextual trends, and short-term outlook for ASX: XERO LIMITED - XRO  aim to provide readers with insights into the current market trends and how to capitalize on them effectively. We offer specific price points that act as validation or invalidation signals for our wave count, enhancing the confidence in our perspective. By combining these factors, we strive to offer readers the most objective and professional perspective on market trends. Technical Analyst: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master’s Designation). Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!
×
×
  • Create New...
us