Jump to content

Bitcoin Q3 2022 Forecast


Recommended Posts

Bitcoin Q3 2022 Forecast: Where’s the Bottom?

Jul 3, 2022 | DailyFX
Ryan Grace, Chief Market Strategist - tastytrade

http://image.coinpedia.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/12174139/Bitcoin.jpeg

If Q1 was difficult for crypto bulls, Q2 was an absolute disaster… As we head into the third quarter, the macro-outlook is still likely to be challenging for crypto, but we could be nearing a cycle low. Let’s put some perspective around the price action by looking at historical cycles and the current macro setup.

PRICE ACTION

At the time of writing, bitcoin has fallen roughly 70% from its all-time high near $70,000. A devastating move, but certainly in line with how it has historically traded. If bitcoin were a company, a move of this size either presents a tremendous opportunity or we should question its ability to remain in business.

Since inception, bitcoin’s largest drop from peak to trough is -81%, with yearly drawdowns registering an average loss of -50% at the low. For bullish investors with a long-term outlook, the current discount might be attractive, but should history repeat, an 80% loss from the top represents a potential entry point closer to $15,000.

CYCLE LENGTH

Bitcoin’s all-time high occurred more than 200 days ago on November 10, 2021. Compared to historical drawdowns, this cycle has lasted significantly longer than the 117-day average, but short of its worst period on record. During 2018’s crypto winter it took 343 days until bitcoin’s price found a bottom.

If this cycle more closely resembles the 2018 vintage, the selling pressure could last into year-end or later. That said, when the selling does finally end, bitcoin’s price tends to quickly turn around. Historically bitcoin has rallied an average of 69% over the following six months after a cycle low.

PATIENCE IS NECESSARY

Looking at past cycles helps provide context, but I don’t believe anything changes for bitcoin until the macro environment is more constructive.

Bitcoin is a very high beta asset which exhibits a positive correlation to the broader equity market. It’s also inversely correlated to interest rates. Should these correlations remain intact, it doesn’t bode well for crypto, at least in the short-term.

The economy is showing signs of slowing at the same time the Federal Reserve is aggressively hiking interest rates and reducing its balance sheet to bring down inflation. This is a backdrop where I believe it will be difficult for most risk assets to experience meaningful upside, especially crypto.

There will inevitably be relief rallies, but the macro matters now more than ever. Until there’s ultimately a shift in financial conditions (which are aggressively tightening now), it’s difficult to forecast a bottom any time soon.

Link to comment

Bitcoin Q3 2022 Technical Forecast

Jul 2, 2022 | DailyFX
Paul Robinson, Strategist

Bitcoin Plunges To Lowest Level Since January 2021 - Bitcoin Magazine

Heading into last quarter I was giving BTC/USD the benefit of the doubt that it may rally, but for that to be the case it would have needed to garner a round of fresh interest quickly. That of course failed to materialize as we began Q2, and on that BTC rolled over quickly with risk trends.

BUYING THIS QUARTER

In June, BTC/USD not only broke big support at 28600, but it also fell below the December 2017 high at 19666. However, we saw a weekly close above the 2017 level after bottoming out at 17592. The weekly reversal back above a critical level of support coupled with market sentiment appearing to be on the verge of a broader rebound, BTC should see some buying this quarter.

However, strength is viewed as likely to be transient, as the longer-term forces appear headed to send Bitcoin much lower. But before that develops (nothing rarely happens in a straight line) a rally back to old support around 28600 up to around 30k is seen as having a decent probability. Prior to that big test is a weekly low at 25400 to keep an eye on.

BITCOIN (BTC/USD) WEEKLY CHART

Bitcoin Q3 2022 Technical Forecast

Chart created with TradingView

What happens around former support will be key to watch should price rise to that point. In-line with the broader trend lower it could be the capper on a bounce before another major leg lower develops. The next big level of support to watch below 17592 comes in at 13880, the 2019 high.

The general trading bias is bullish as long as 17592 holds. Trading from the long side may be the way to go until we see former support near 30k tested as potentially a new source of resistance.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Binance റഫറൽ കോഡ് "ZNKAUKP3" എന്നത് ലോകത്തിലെ ഏറ്റവും വലിയ ക്രിപ്‌റ്റോകറൻസി പ്ലാറ്റ്‌ഫോമിലെ ഉപയോക്താക്കൾക്ക് അവരുടെ ഇടപാടുകളിൽ കൂടുതൽ നിയന്ത്രണം നേടാനും അവരുടെ ചലനങ്ങളുടെ വിശദമായ റെക്കോർഡ് നേടാനും ആഗ്രഹിക്കുന്ന ഒരു അത്യാവശ്യ ഉപകരണമാണ്. ബിനാൻസ് എക്സ്ചേഞ്ചിൽ, റഫറൽ കോഡിനും റഫറൽ ഐഡിക്കും ഒരേ അർത്ഥമുണ്ട്. നിലവിൽ, ബിനാൻസ് റഫറൽ ഐഡി "ZNKAUKP3" ആയി ഉപയോഗിക്കുന്നു. 20% കമ്മീഷൻ കിഴിവ് നിരക്കുള്ള, ആജീവനാന്ത സാധുതയുള്ള, ലോകത്ത് ഏറ്റവും കൂടുതൽ ഉപയോഗിക്കുന്ന Binance റഫറൽ ഐഡിയാണിത്. മത്സര നേട്ടം പുതിയ നിക്ഷേപകരെ ആകർഷിക്കുന്നതിനായി ക്രിപ്‌റ്റോകറൻസി എക്‌സ്‌ചേഞ്ചുകൾ റഫറൽ, അഫിലിയേറ്റ് പ്രോഗ്രാമുകൾ നടപ്പിലാക്കിയിട്ടുണ്ട്. Binance റഫറൽ ഐഡി "ZNKAUKP3" എന്ന പേരിൽ ജനപ്രിയമായതിനാൽ, നിങ്ങൾക്ക് 20% ആജീവനാന്ത കമ്മീഷൻ കിഴിവും 600 USDT സൈൻ-അപ്പ് ബോണസും ലഭിക്കും. ഈ വാചകം പോലെയുള്ള ഉള്ളടക്കം തയ്യാറാക്കുന്നതിലൂടെ, ഉയർന്ന മത്സരാധിഷ്ഠിത നേട്ടത്തിൽ നിന്ന് നിങ്ങൾക്ക് വരുമാനം നേടാനും കഴിയും.
    • លេខកូដយោង Binance "ZNKAUKP3" គឺជាឧបករណ៍សំខាន់មួយសម្រាប់អ្នកប្រើប្រាស់នៅលើវេទិកា cryptocurrency ដ៏ធំបំផុតរបស់ពិភពលោក ដែលចង់ទទួលបានការគ្រប់គ្រងបន្ថែមទៀតលើប្រតិបត្តិការរបស់ពួកគេ និងទទួលបានកំណត់ត្រាលម្អិតនៃចលនារបស់ពួកគេ។ នៅក្នុងការផ្លាស់ប្តូរ Binance លេខកូដយោង និងលេខសម្គាល់យោងមានអត្ថន័យដូចគ្នា។ បច្ចុប្បន្ន លេខសម្គាល់យោង Binance ត្រូវបានប្រើជា "ZNKAUKP3" ។ វាគឺជាលេខសម្គាល់ការបញ្ជូនបន្ត Binance ដែលត្រូវបានប្រើប្រាស់ច្រើនជាងគេបំផុតនៅក្នុងពិភពលោក ដែលមានសុពលភាពសម្រាប់ជីវិត ជាមួយនឹងអត្រាបញ្ចុះតម្លៃកំរៃជើងសារ 20%។ គុណសម្បត្តិប្រកួតប្រជែង ការផ្លាស់ប្តូរ Cryptocurrency បានអនុវត្តកម្មវិធីបញ្ជូនបន្ត និងសម្ព័ន្ធដើម្បីទាក់ទាញអ្នកវិនិយោគថ្មី។ ចាប់តាំងពីលេខសម្គាល់ការបញ្ជូនបន្ត Binance បានក្លាយជាការពេញនិយមជា "ZNKAUKP3" អ្នកអាចទទួលបានការបញ្ចុះតម្លៃកំរៃជើងសារពេញមួយជីវិត 20% និងប្រាក់រង្វាន់សម្រាប់ការចុះឈ្មោះ 600 USDT ។ តាមរយៈការរៀបចំខ្លឹមសារដូចអត្ថបទនេះ អ្នកក៏អាចរកប្រាក់ចំណូលបានពីអត្ថប្រយោជន៍ប្រកួតប្រជែងខ្ពស់។
    • Binance रेफरल ID "ZNKAUKP3" विश्वको सबैभन्दा ठूलो क्रिप्टोकरेन्सी प्लेटफर्मका प्रयोगकर्ताहरूका लागि आवश्यक उपकरण हो जसले आफ्नो लेनदेनमा थप नियन्त्रण प्राप्त गर्न र तिनीहरूको चालहरूको विस्तृत रेकर्ड प्राप्त गर्न चाहन्छ। Binance विनिमय मा, रेफरल कोड र रेफरल ID को समान अर्थ छ। हाल, Binance रेफरल आईडी "ZNKAUKP3" को रूपमा प्रयोग गरिन्छ। यो संसारमा सबैभन्दा बढी प्रयोग हुने Binance रेफरल ID हो, जीवनभरको लागि मान्य, २०% कमीशन छुट दरको साथ। प्रतिस्पर्धात्मक लाभ क्रिप्टोकरेन्सी एक्सचेन्जहरूले नयाँ लगानीकर्ताहरूलाई आकर्षित गर्न सन्दर्भ र सम्बद्ध कार्यक्रमहरू लागू गरेका छन्। Binance रेफरल ID "ZNKAUKP3" को रूपमा लोकप्रिय भएको कारणले, तपाईंले 20% आजीवन कमीशन छुट र 600 USDT साइन-अप बोनस प्राप्त गर्न सक्नुहुन्छ। यस पाठ जस्तो सामग्री तयार गरेर, तपाइँ उच्च प्रतिस्पर्धात्मक लाभबाट पनि आम्दानी गर्न सक्नुहुन्छ।
×
×
  • Create New...
us