JP Morgan share price Q2 2022 results preview

[MongiIG]

JP Morgan upcoming results are expected to show a decline in earnings although analyst ratings suggest ‘buy’.

Source: Bloomberg

 

Shares JPMorgan Chase Price Dividend Share price Technical analysis

 Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Friday 08 July 2022 

When are the JP Morgan results expected?

JP Morgan is set to release second quarter (Q2) results for the fiscal year 2022 (Q2 2022) on the 14th of July 2022.

What is ‘The Street’s’ expectations for the Q2 2022 results?

‘The Street’ expectations for the upcoming results are as follows:

• Revenue of $31.960bn (+1.80% year on year (YoY))
• Earnings per share (EPS) $2.95 (-22% YoY)

How to trade JP Morgan into the results

Source: Refinitiv

Refinitive data shows a consensus of (26) analyst ratings at ‘buy’ for JP Morgan. A mean of estimates suggest a long term share price target of $151.19 for the company. While the current share price trades at a 34% discount to this assumed long term fair value (as of the 6th of July 2022), it does represent a downgrade from the $167.44 target we saw ahead of the groups Q1 2022 results in April.
 

 

Source: IG

IG sentiment data shows that 94% of clients with open positions on the share (as of the 7th of July 2022) expect the price to rise over the near term, while 6% of these clients expect the price to fall.

How does JP Morgan compare to its peers in terms of valuation?
 

The above table compares JP Morgan against a peer average (which includes Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley) in terms of dividend yield and price to earnings (PE) multiples.

JP Morgan currently trades at a slight premium to its sector peers in terms of a historical and forward PE, although still at a significant discount to the S&P 500 benchmark index (at a PE of 28 times).

The group’s dividend offering has been at a premium to these aforementioned peers in aggregate.

JP Morgan – Technical view

Source: ProRealTime

The long term trend for JP Morgan remains down as noted by the price trading firmly below the 200 day simple moving average as well as the red trend line on our chart.

The stochastic is suggesting that the price may be oversold at present although this is not yet considered reason to trade against the prevailing downtrend.

Should a rebound from oversold territory occur, traders respecting the longer term trend might wait for a bearish reversal to end a move higher, in which case 113.00 and 103.75 would become downside support targets respectively. In this scenario the red trend line on our chart might be used as a trailing stop consideration.

Only on a move back above the high at 132.30 would we reassess the short bias considered to trades on the company currently.

In summary

• JP Morgan Chase and Co. is set to release Q2 2022 results on the 14th of July 2022
• Q2 2022 are expected to show a YoY increase in revenue and decline in earnings per share
• Long term broker consensus suggests the share to currently be a ‘buy’, with a longer term price target of $151.90
• The long term price target has been revised lower since the groups Q1 2022 earnings
• IG clients with open positions on the share are predominantly long
• The long term price trend for JP Morgan remains down, although in the short term we could see a rebound from oversold territory
• From a technical analysis point of view a short bias remains preferred while 132.30 remains resistance