Jump to content

Two central bank meetings this week could steer NZD/USD, USD/CAD


Recommended Posts

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and Bank of Canada (BoC) both set rates on Wednesday this week.

 

 

 Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Monday 11 July 2022 

RBNZ rate decision

The couple of central banks will have their interest rate meetings this week, both on Wednesday the 13th of July.

First up is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) which is expected to raise rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 2.5% back to levels not seen since 2016.

The RBNZ was among the first of the central banks to start raising rates up to October last year - the bank's official cash rate was at 0.25% This expected rate hike this week will be the sixth in a row.

NZD/USD

A quick update on where we are in terms of the New Zealand dollar. This is the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar. It's very similar against the Australian dollar. So you'll be trading this the same sort of way.

If you think that there's going to be a more aggressive attitude from the New Zealand central bank then obviously you'd want to see it break this line of support at 6124. If it's a little bit less hawkish in its rhetoric, maybe we might see this line of support at 6124 being held up.

BoC on rates

Then later on the day, on Wednesday at 15:00 UK time to be precise, the Bank of Canada (BoC) will issue its interest rate decision.

Now it began its hiking process a little bit later, but ranks as one of the highest rates in the world's main economies. Economists see a rate increase of 75 basis points this week from the BoC, which would take the bank's overnight rate to two-and-a-quarter per cent.

Up to January this year the Bank of Canada's rate was at 0.25%, so we've seen 200 basis points in six months, which has been the way in which the Canadian central bank has chosen to move with interest rates.

USD/CAD

Let's take a quick look at what's happened to the USD/CAD.

We've seen this sort of triple top pattern forming here, capping out at 13078. In today's session we've got the US dollar rising against the Canadian dollar, but the same for the RBNZ - if you've got an aggressive hawkish Canadian central bank, could we see this line at 13078 defended and further downside to go.

We'll have to see what happens with those two interest rate decisions on Wednesday this week.

 

IG Group.PNG

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
      21,617
    • Total Posts
      91,854
    • Total Members
      41,891
    • Most Online
      7,522
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Mhada
    Joined 23/03/23 08:10
  • Posts

    • #GBPCAD: Pullback From Key LevelGBPCAD reached a major horizontal resistance.The price has nicely reacted to that, forming a bearish engulfing candle on 4H time frame.I expect a retracement from the underlined structure.Goals: 1.68 / 1.677
    • #EURUSD: Important Breakout 🇪🇺🇺🇸   Bulls push 🟢EURUSD heavily after yesterday's Interest Rate Decision and FOMC. The price has successfully broken and closed above a solid horizontal supply cluster.   The next solid resistance that I see is 1.099 - 1.103 area. Probabilities will be high that it is the next goal for buyers.   For those, who missed entries, I strictly recommend waiting for a pullback first. I will post an update later on. For Additional confirmation use: Xmaster Formula MT4 Indicator
    • The Nasdaq’s gains are starkly contrasted with relatively weak performances this year from US index peers the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (Wall Street 30), suggesting some sector rotation has occurred. Source: Bloomberg   Indices Nasdaq-100 S&P 500 Dow Jones Industrial Average Nasdaq Technical analysis  Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Monday 20 March 2023  The Nasdaq 100 index, after being out of favour in 2022, has managed to produce double digit price gains within the first quarter of 2023. These gains are starkly contrasted with relatively weak performances this year from US index peers the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average (Wall Street 30). The failure of smaller financial counters Silvergate, First Republic and Silicon Valley Banks, has sparked fears around a mini banking crisis prompting weakness in larger banking peers which make up some of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial index constituents. In turn there is a suggestion that we are now seeing some sector rotation by investors back into technology stocks found within the Nasdaq 100 index. Relative strength comparison: Nasdaq 100 vs S&P 500   Source: IG The chart above shows a ratio comparison of the Nasdaq 100 (numerator) and the S&P500 (denominator) from the beginning of 2022 up until now (20 March 2023). The red trend line (arrow) highlights the downtrend in this ratio which reflects a significant underperformance of the Nasdaq against the S&P500 in 2022. The blue arrow highlights the upward trend of this ratio which began in early 2023. The upward trend now prevalent, highlights the Nasdaq 100’s outperformance of the S&P 500. Relative strength comparison: Nasdaq 100 vs Dow Jones Industrial Average   Source: IG Similarly, to our previous chart (Nasdaq100 / SP500) the above chart of the Nasdaq 100 (numerator) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (denominator) ratio highlights these same trends, i.e. in 2022 Nasdaq 100 consistently underperformed the Dow, while in 2023 that trend appears to have reversed. Year to date index moves compared   Source: IG Albeit from a lower base, the Nasdaq 100 has outperformed its benchmark peers the S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average significantly in 2023. Nasdaq 100 – Technical analysis Source: IG As highlighted in a previous article, the 50-day simple moving average (50MA) (green line) has recently crossed above the 200-day simple moving average (200MA) (blue line). This moving average crossover is commonly referred to as the ‘golden cross’ in technical analysis terms. The suggestion is that it marks the beginning of a new longer-term uptrend in a market, in this case the Nasdaq 100. While we have seen some short-term gains to follow in the index, the Nasdaq 100 does now also trade in overbought territory. The overbought signal suggests that trend followers looking for long entry might be afforded an opportunity to do so through either a near term price pullback or sideways consolidation.   Source: IG The price break above resistance at 12350, now sees this level as possible support, should a pullback ensue. Traders supporting the long-term uptrend might look for long entry on a pullback to either this level or trend line (solid black line) support. Preferably a pullback would need to end with a bullish reversal (candle) pattern. In this scenario, 12900 and 13190 provide initial resistance targets, while a close below the reversal low might be used as a stop loss indication for the trade.
×
×
  • Create New...