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NFP Today

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Big beat on the ADP employment data yesterday pushed indices to record highs in the US and Asian sessions.




Awaiting conformation (or not) in today's NFP.

On average NFP figure down by around 55k on the ADP figure (over last 6 months). NFP estimate is 185k while the ADP yesterday was 253k so NFP could well come in higher than the estimate.


But if NFP comes in around estimate or lower could see some Friday afternoon position unwinding.


Pic by Sigma Squawk.


ADP avg 55k over.PNG 

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S&P big down day today but into major support. NFP could exaggerate a bounce up or a break down for this and Dow.

EURUSD big up day to retest daily,weekly and monthly resistance, same again, a big NFP number outside expectations could trigger a major move. 

ADP NFP Thursday slightly lower but historic poor correlation. Wait for the news then try to jump aboard the winner.






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Wednesday's ADP NFP was well over forecast so today's numbers should interesting. Average Hourly Earnings put in a low number last month and that's often followed by a high so possibility of high numbers for both NFP and AHE today



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Key figure to watch is the expected rise in Average Hourly Earnings for May estimated at 0.2% from a previous 0.1%. If this fails to materialise could cause panic but given Italian politics and surprise tariff levies markets are already pretty spooked.





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