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British Pound Forecast: Goldman Sachs UK Outlook Hurts GBP on Summer Bank Holiday


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POUND STERLING TALKING POINTS

  • Goldman forecasts Q4 recession for UK.
  • Increase in GBP/USD downside risk.

Pound Sterling: Barclays, Goldman Sachs Predictions ahead of Bank of England  Rate Hike

GBP/USD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

 

Pound sterling extended its fall this Monday after last week’s hawkish Fed Chair Powell speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Although this outcome was largely expected by markets, confirmation turned out to highlight the disparities between the UK and U.S. economies respectively. The decline in UK economic data was relayed by Goldman Sachs this morning, echoing the sentiment of the Bank of England (BoE) a few weeks ago that a UK recession in the fourth quarter is expected - a marked revision from their previous outlook.

This being said, money markets remain ardent on a 50bps interest rate hike in the September meeting (see table below) but with the fundamental UK backdrop deteriorating as energy prices weigh on the consumer, I am not sure how much further these hikes will go considering winter is around the corner. It may be prudent to adopt a ‘wait and see’ approach during these winter months for a proper evaluation.

BANK OF ENGLAND INTEREST RATE PROBABILITIES

BOE interest rate probabilities

Source: Refinitiv

 

Full article: Aug 29, 2022 | DailyFX
Warren Venketas, Analyst

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