Jump to content

Crude Oil Forecast: Brent in Limbo as OPEC Meeting Draws Near


MongiIG

Recommended Posts

BRENT CRUDE OIL (LCOC1) TALKING POINTS

  • Demand-side factors continue to dominate.
  • Will OPEC trim supply again?

Crude Oil Forecast: Brent in Limbo as OPEC Meeting Draws Near

BRENT CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

Brent crude oil rallied yesterday on the back of a weaker U.S. dollar coupled with a notable decrease in U.S. crude oil stockpiles as revealed in the EIA weekly report. This morning has seen a resumption of the downward trend as the dollar is bid once more, making yesterday’s move largely attributed to oversold levels as well as quarter-end rebalancing. Markets are still focused on demand destruction and a global recession as opposed to supply-side concerns.

Full article: Sep 29, 2022 | DailyFX
Warren Venketas, Analyst

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Silver Elliott Wave Analysis  Function -Trend Mode - Trend Structure - Impulse for blue wave A Position - Wave 5 of (5) Direction - Wave 5 of (5) in play Details -Wave 5 of (5) extends higher. There appears to be room for more before prices start turning down for a retracement. Same interpretation as the previous update. Silver has moved sideways for nearly 72 hours amid a strong year-long bullish trend. The price is more likely to break to the upside to continue this trend. However, if it breaks to the downside, buyers are expected to push the price up again shortly thereafter. Nevertheless, a significant pullback lasting several weeks is anticipated at some point. The question is: how much higher can the metal go before this pullback?   On the daily chart, the price extends the bullish sequence that began at 11.645 in March 2020. This sequence could either complete a double zigzag with a 100% target at 37 and potentially extend further to 48.3. If 48.3 is breached, the likelihood that the sequence will turn into an impulse wave increases. Whether it becomes an impulse or remains a corrective sequence is not crucial at this point since both scenarios project further rallies, with the impulse wave having a higher target. Currently, attention should be on the impulse sequence that started in January 2024, which is expected to complete blue wave A of the primary degree or blue wave 1 of an impulse. The impulse is close to completing its 5th wave—wave 5—after which a pullback is expected. The H4 chart shows the progress of wave (5) of the impulse and how much further it could go before the pullback begins. The price is currently in wave 3 of (5). Wave 3 appears to be incomplete, with the current triangle serving as the 4th sub-wave of wave 3, i.e., blue wave iv. Traders can expect the triangle to break to the upside to complete wave 3, followed by a minor pullback for wave 4 and further advances for wave 5. At the end of wave 5, we can expect a peak and a downward turn for primary degree wave B (in blue on the daily chart), which could last for several weeks. Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • SPOT Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Daily Chart, Spotify Technology S.A., (SPOT) Daily Chart SPOT Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION: Minor 5. DIRECTION: Upside in Minor 5   DETAILS: Looking for start moving higher after trading around TL3 at 300$. Looking for further upside towards at least the end of MG2 at 330$.   SPOT Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4Hr Chart, Spotify Technology S.A., (SPOT) 4Hr Chart SPOT Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: Impulsive STRUCTURE: Motive POSITION: Minor 5. DIRECTION: Upside in Minor 5   DETAILS: Looking for a triangle in 4 to be completed. There is a possibility we just completed wave {iv} and not 4, as equality of  Minor 3 vs. 1 stands at 340$.     Welcome to our latest Elliott Wave analysis for Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT). In this report, we provide a detailed examination of SPOT's price movements and future projections using the Elliott Wave Theory. This analysis will cover both the daily and 4-hour charts, offering insights into the current trends and potential trading opportunities. Whether you are a seasoned trader or a market enthusiast, this analysis aims to enhance your understanding of SPOT's market behavior.   * SPOT Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Daily Chart* In our latest Elliott Wave analysis of Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT), we observe a bullish trend with an impulsive structure. Currently positioned at Minor wave 5, SPOT is gearing up for an upside move in Minor 5. After trading around Trading Level 3 (TL3) at $300, we anticipate further upside towards at least the end of Major Group 2 (MG2) at $330. Traders should be prepared for a potential continuation of the upward trend as the market gains momentum.   * SPOT Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4Hr Chart* On the 4-hour chart, SPOT is also exhibiting an impulsive mode within a motive structure, specifically positioned in Minor wave 5. We are looking for the completion of a triangle in wave 4. However, there is a possibility that we have just completed wave {iv} instead of 4, with the equality of Minor wave 3 vs. 1 standing at $340. This scenario suggests further upside potential as SPOT continues to move higher in wave 5.   Technical Analyst : Alessio Barretta Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • The anticipated drop in UK's CPI data for April is a key determinant for a potential interest rate cut in June by the Bank of England.   Source: Getty Images   Forex Shares Consumer price index Pound sterling Market trend GBP/USD Written by: Richard Snow | Analyst, DailyFX, Johannesburg   Publication date: Wednesday 22 May 2024 07:14 On Wednesday, the UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is expected to decline for both headline and core measures. Consensus estimates project the headline measure dropping significantly from 3.2% to 2.1%. This lofty expectation could lead to market disappointment if the figures come in higher than anticipated. Even a small miss to the upside would still represent substantial progress. Economic calendar   Source: DailyFX In April of last year, services inflation re-accelerated more than expected, continuing into May and June, prompting the Bank of England to raise interest rates during its June 2023 meeting. However, this year’s guidance suggests that the data may be less extreme due to generally lower headline prices. Services prices, often index-linked to headline prices, are not expected to pass through as significantly as in 2023. UK Services CPI Year-on-Year Change (April -July)   Source: Refinitiv A UK inflation print that meets or undershoots expectations could catalyse bearish sentiment for sterling, particularly given the waning GBP/USD price action below the 1.2736 level. Given the high inflation expectations, even a slight upside miss might still exert bearish pressure, reflecting the overall progress towards the 2% inflation target. The presence of upper wicks and small candle bodies in GBP/USD charts suggests diminishing bullish momentum, potentially leading to a lower move if catalysed by appropriate data. Should prices cap at 1.2736, a downward movement would remain constructive following a better-than-expected CPI print. The pound has rallied against the dollar since April's lower US CPI print. A short bias would be invalidated at 1.2800, with support and a short target set at 1.2585. GBP/USD daily chart   Source: TradingView Markets currently view a June cut as a 50/50 outcome ahead of UK CPI – enhancing its importance in the lead up to the central bank meeting. A softer CPI print, followed by dovish comments from BoE officials creates an environment where the first rate cut since the hiking cycle may be upon us sooner than expected. However, if inflation fails to match up to the lofty expectations, pricing may reflect a preference for August or even later in the year. Implied rate cuts into year end (in basis points)   Source: Refinitiv       This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
×
×
  • Create New...
us