NZDUSD

[Guest Matoh76]

Very high on the adx and monthly and daily time frames ... looks like the trend is exhausted ... the only way is down?

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Hi   Nice call, you may well be right. Close to top of range, PA clearly struggling and MACD looks to be rolling over on the daily. The long tails on recent attempts to go lower indicate continuing buyer interest but if that mini trend line breaks could well see a plunge. 

 

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Still waiting, sage advice from Tradecieity. 

 

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NZDUSD/74CxyG2i-A-chart-that-will-kill-you-NZDUSD/

 

[Caseynotes]

This GridSight percentage chart from FXCM Market Data probably has it about right.

As Tradeciety points out in the article in the last post, without momentum in a new direction you don't really have much to work with and until you do it's just a big bet.

 

Three common themes that combine to misdirect every trader.

 “Human nature is to be bullish in bear moves and bearish in bull moves … this is why most people that try trading lose.” (Richard Weissman).

 

“Buy the low, sell the high.”

 

“This is the top”.

 

So the trader is trying to pick the top and sell the high because this bullish move must be over. Right? Maybe, but without conformation you will be constantly losing money guessing. 

That usually means missing out on the first part of the move, check the chart, price usually moves to retest previous important levels, identify those levels and decide if there is enough room to jump aboard on a pullback.

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Finally gets a daily close below the mini trendline to continue down in it's long term range.