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10/06/21 10:53
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EUR/USD and GBP/USD pause their ascents while USD/JPY continues to rise Outlook on EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY as the greenback appreciates on news that the US mid-size banking sector will soon be more tightly regulated. Source: Bloomberg Forex United States dollar Japanese yen USD/JPY EUR/USD GBP/USD Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 31 March 2023 EUR/USD’s advance stalls below current March high at $1.0929 EUR/USD’s rise from last week’s $1.0714 low faltered slightly below the current March high at $1.0929 as final German consumer price index (CPI) data slightly overshot expectations while Spanish inflation came in much lower than anticipated. EUR/USD is likely to find support along the two-week uptrend line at $1.0855, ahead of the $1.0804 to $1.0801 mid-February and Monday’s highs. While the latter level holds, overall upside pressure should be maintained with a rise towards the $1.1033 February peak remaining on the cards. For now, resistance at last and this week’s highs at $1.0926 to $1.0929 caps, though. Minor support below Monday’s $1.0801 high can be seen at the mid-March high at $1.076, ahead of the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.0742. Source: IT-Finance.com GBP/USD runs out of steam below key resistance at $1.2446 to $1.2448 GBP/USD has nearly reached its December and January highs at $1.2446 to $1.2448 as the UK narrowly avoids a recession with its final quarter four (Q4) gross domestic product (GDP) coming in stronger than expected at 0.1%. A minor retracement back towards last week’s high at $1.2343 and perhaps the one-month steep uptrend line at $1.2325 may ensue while the $1.2446 to $1.2448 resistance zone caps. Provide that no bearish reversal takes the currency pair to below Thursday’s low at $1.2294 on a daily chart closing basis, the recent uptrend remains intact. A rise above the December and January highs at $1.2446 to $1.2448 could lead to the May 2022 peak at $1.2667 being back on the map. Source: IT-Finance.com USD/JPY recovery slows down but still remains in play USD/JPY’s recovery from last week’s ¥129.65 low amid an appreciating US dollar as the US government asked the country’s financial regulator to tighten up recently relaxed legislation in regards to mid-sized banks and undertake more rigorous stress testing, has taken it to above the 55-day SMA at ¥132.53. The next potential upside target can be spotted at the 24 February low at ¥134.06 with only a rise above the next higher ¥135.11 mid-March high meaning that the 2023 uptrend has indeed resumed. Unless such an advance occurs, the odds favour another down leg being made which could take the cross to below its 10 February and March lows at ¥129.81 to ¥129.65. Support below the 55-day SMA at ¥132.54 can be found at the 27 March high at ¥131.77. Source: IT-Finance.com -
Gold and coffee prices steady, while oil prices edge lower Gold and coffee have managed to hold on to most of their recent gains, while oil is down slightly after a strong run higher from the March lows. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 31 March 2023 Gold clings on near recent highs The price continues to see plenty of volatility, but remains near recent highs. Consolidation has been the pattern over the past two weeks, with no desire yet to move above $2000, but with buyers remaining in control and preventing any significant downside for the time being. Overall it looks like this will resolve into a fresh move higher towards $2050, and it would need a move back below $1900 to put a more serious dent in the bullish view. Source: ProRealTime WTI returns to $74 Crude prices continue to surge, with WTI now closing in on the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) again. The impressive bounce from the March lows shows no sign of stopping yet, though the downtrend of the past seven months is still intact. Any turn lower from below $80 would still constitute a lower high and leave the overall bearish view intact. This would then suggest a fresh move to $65 is a possibility, as the downtrend reasserts itself. Source: ProRealTime Coffee back to February highs After rallying from the March lows the price looks to be preparing to push above the February highs. Above 2200, the price will then target the August highs around 2280/2300, having traded in a wide range from 2030 to 2200 since the beginning of the year. Source: ProRealTime
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With markets expecting a 25-basis point rise in Australian rates, Richard Snow, from Daily FX, looks at the risk around the announcement that rates could stay on hold. He looks at a trade for AUD/USD. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 31 March 2023
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