Crude Oil Update: Brent Falls on Supposed Russian Oil Price Cap

[MongiIG]

BRENT CRUDE OIL (LCOC1) ANALYSIS & TALKING POINTS

• Updates on Russian oil price cap in focus for Brent crude.
• FOMC minutes limits USD over long weekend.
• COVID cases in China hit historic highs weakening demand for crude oil.
• September swing low under pressure once more.

BRENT CRUDE OIL FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP

Brent crude oil is trading marginally higher this Wednesday although still relatively depressed due to the news about the G-7 proposal to increase the Russian oil price cap from around $60 to $65-$70. What this means for oil markets is that if this new range is agreed upon, Russia is then unlikely to cut off supply as these prices as would be the case with the $60 level. The reason behind this is the fact that Urals (Russian crude oil) has been selling at these levels relative to Brent crude. This being said, there was no agreement made by the member nations with discussion set to continue today.

In addition, one of the principal aims of the price cap is to financial handicap Russia and will likely have minimal to zero impact for the Russians exhibiting the EU’s preference for supply stability.

Last night, EIA weekly storage data tracked the prior API data set with the stocks change dropping more than expected to 3.69MMbbls but was unable to deter Brent prices.

 

Nov 24, 2022 | DailyFX
Warren Venketas, Analyst