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ASX 200 market update as on 13 December.

1670908499126.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 
 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 13 December 2022 

The ASX 200 trades 13 points higher (0.18%) at 7194 at 3.30 pm Sydney time.

A sense of relief flowed across Wall Street overnight as U.S consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead declined to 5.2% in November, the lowest since August 2021.

While key U.S. equity markets latched onto the good news, rallying between 1.2% and 1.4%, the ASX 200 has displayed much more restraint today ahead of a bigger test tonight in the shape of monthly U.S. CPI data.

The consensus forecast is for headline U.S. inflation to slow to 7.3% y/y in November from 7.7% y/y. Core CPI is expected to slow to 6.1% y/y from 6.3% y/y in October.

If the headline inflation rate remains stable OR rises, buckle up for a rocky ride on the ASX 200 tomorrow. On the other hand, if the headline inflation rate is softer than the consensus forecast, it could trigger the Christmas rally in the ASX 200 to kick into gear.

Shaking off a decline in Australian Business Confidence and a tepid bounce in Consumer confidence, financial stocks have rallied, led by Bendigo Bank, which gained 7% to $9.68 after a strong trading update. ANZ added 1.8% to $23.97, NAB gained 1.57% to $30.67, CBA added 0.95% to $106.93, and Westpac added 0.81% to $23.55.

Recovering from yesterday’s carnage, Tyro Payments has surged by 21.6% to $1.46 on talk that suitor Potentia could return with a sweetened offer. Megaport added 5.95% to $7.12, Afterpay owner Block added 3.75% to $97.02, while fellow BNPL stock ZIP cratered by 9% to $0.65c after the company announced an unexpected capital raising.

The share price of the big iron ore miners has fallen as the price of iron ore on the Chinese Dalian futures exchange slipped by 1.8% shortly after the opening. Fortescue Metals fell 3.6% to $20.37, Rio Tinto fell 2.11% to $113.90, and BHP fell 1.73% to $46.00.

After an impressive run-up from its October lows, the pullback we have wanted to see to work off overbought readings is rapidly maturing. The preference is to accumulate into a pullback into the 7100/7000 area leaning against the support provided by the 200-day moving average at 7000.

The AUD/USD continues to find resistance up near .6800c, a bridge too far and is currently trading at .6743.

ASX 200 daily chart

1670908181201.pngSource: TradingView

Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.

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ASX 200 afternoon report: December 14

ASX 200 market update as of December 14, 3.15 pm AEDT.

1670993958064.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Wednesday 14 December 2022 

The ASX 200 trades 43 points higher (0.59%) at 7246 at 3.15 pm Sydney time.

A sea of green across the regional bourse today, and the ASX 200 has been a willing participant after U.S headline inflation slowed by more than expected for a second consecutive month.

While it’s still early for the Fed to declare victory in its war on surging prices, the slower rate of inflation will allow the Fed to ease the pace of its rate hiking cycle from 75bp to 50bp at tomorrow morning’s FOMC meeting.

However, the last thing that Fed Chair Powell wants to see is another easing in financial conditions after yields and the greenback cratered overnight. Expect to see hawkish tones ring out from the Fed Chair in the accompanying statement and press conference.

Nonetheless, interest rate-sensitive tech stocks have joined today’s rally. Afterpay owner Block added 8% to $104.15, Novonix added 5.5% to $1.92, and Megaport continued its good run adding 3% to $7.33.

Energy sector

Energy stocks have gained as the softer-than-expected inflation data raised expectations of a soft landing, sending the price of crude oil back above $75.00.

Coal miners have continued to bounce back from their legislation inspired sell-off earlier in the week.

The share price of the big iron ore miners has rebounded as authorities in China press ahead with their rapid reopening plans and support for the property sector.

 

Banks

A mixed day for the banks as Bendigo handed back a good chunk of yesterday’s gains.

  • Bendigo Bank fell -4.24% to $9.26
  • NAB fell -0.9% to $30.51
  • ANZ fell -0.85% to $23.90
  • Macquarie Bank added 0.7% to $174.16.

Technically, a push above 7300 in the ASX 200 would indicate that the pullback/correction from the 7375 high is complete at Monday’s 7156.5 low and that the Santa Claus rally has commenced.

The AUD/USD is trading at .6830, after reaching a 13-week high overnight at .6894.

ASX 200 daily chart

1670993723922.pngSource: TradingView

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ASX 200 afternoon report: 16th of January 2023

ASX 200 market update as of 16th January, 3.15 pm AEDT.

 

bg%20Commonwealth%20Bank%20of%20AustraliSource: Bloomberg

 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 16 January 2023 

2023 is the Year of the Rabbit in the China Zodiac - fitting that the rebound in the ASX 200 in the first weeks of this year has stemmed from optimism around China’s re-opening and as the Federal Reserve appears on the verge of pulling a rabbit out of the hat.

After 425bp of rate hikes in just seven months, cooling US inflation is expected to see the Federal Reserve downshift the pace of its rate-hiking cycle at the February FOMC meeting bringing relief to markets.

More so as the tightening cycle appears to have been without serious pain to US consumers.

On Friday night, the University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index rose to 64.6 in January, trouncing market expectations for a modest rise to 60.5 in January.

IT sector

Returning to the local market, the IT sector outperformed after the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 5.5% last week.


Energy sector

An 8.27% rebound in the price of crude oil last week to above $80 p/b has supported energy stocks.

Financial sector

At a sector level, the ASX Financial Sector added 2.79% last week but remains 5% below its all-time high. After the majority of Wall Street banks that reported last week beat earnings estimates, further upside in the ASX Financial sector seems likely.

  • ANZ added 1.45% to $24.85
  • NAB added 1.26% to $31.70
  • Macquarie added 1% to $180.06
  • CBA added 0.85% to $107.43, seemingly locked and loaded to test its all-time $110.19 high.

For more on the banks, please read today's Three Stocks to Watch article.

News that China’s National Development and Reform Commission will crack down on spreading false information and price gouging in the iron ore market has weighed on the price of iron ore futures and Fortescue Metals, which fell 2.61% to $22.21. BHP traded to a new high at $50.00 before easing to be trading flat on the day at $49.63. Rio Tinto fell 0.22% to $122.02.

Apart from the silly sell-off on Day 1 of the New Year, which was flagged at the time as likely a false break lower, the ASX 200 has followed the road map nicely to test and break above the December 7375 high. The preference now is to look to trim longs into fresh highs, ideally between 7480 and 7600.

The AUD/USD is trading higher at .7010, its first time above .70c in four months. Today's break of resistance at .6890/00 should see the V push towards the mid-August .7137 high.

 

ASXreport160123.pngSource: TradingView

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ASX 200 afternoon report: 19th of January 2023

The ASX 200 trades 43 points higher (0.60%) at 7437 at 3.00 pm AEDT.

 

BG_rio_tinto_34234234.jpgSource: Bloomberg

 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Thursday 19 January 2023 

The ASX 200, uninterested right from the opening bell in replicating the overnight sell-off on Wall Street, has today traded up to 7439.7 its highest price in nine months.

The spark for the latest leg of the ASX 200’s remarkable run higher in 2023, the release of softer-than-expected jobs data for December and sharp selloff in bond yields.

Within the report’s details, jobs fell by 14.6k in December (the market was looking for a rise of 25k), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5% after last month’s number was revised higher from 3.4% to 3.5%.

Overlayed with the 4.9% fall in job vacancies last week and the rapid return of immigration, the unemployment rate looks set to extend its move towards 4% this year, away from the 3.4% low of October 2022.

Energy sector

A rise in the price of iron ore in Asia to above $124.00 has helped Rio Tinto make fresh cycle highs as it added 4.05% to $126.05, 42% above its October low. BHP is back for a closer look at the $50 level, aided by record iron ore production as it added 1.3% to $49.72, while Fortescue Mining added 1.42% to 22.52.

Real estate and finances

The interest rate-sensitive Real Estate sector has gained, led by Goodman Group, which added 1.62% to $19.39, Stockland Group added 1.04% to $3.90, and Charter Hall Group added 0.65% to $13.22.

The ASX Financial Sector, now up 1.69% for the week, continued its advance towards its all-time high. Macquarie added 1.33% to $181.98, CBA added 0.63% to $108.33, Westpac added 0.63% to $23.97, and NAB added 0.44% to $31.81.

Nanosonics added 8.86% to $5.16 after the infections preventative company reported that total revenue for the 1H is expected to be up 35% year on year, along with an increase in gross profit margins from 77% to 79%.

IT sector

Local IT stocks fell after the tech-heavy Nasdaq snapped its seven-session winning streak overnight. Novonix fell 4.42% to $1.84, Life360 fell 3.47% to $5.57, and after a good run higher, ZIP fell 3.28% to $0.66c.

The ASX 200 has followed the road map over the past month and a half.

The correction from the December 7375 high back to the 200-day moving average at 7000 set the platform for this week’s push above the December 7375 high. We prefer to reduce longs into fresh highs, ideally between 7480 and 7600.

The AUD/USD is trading lower at .6905, a whopping 2.3% below its .7064 overnight high. The view is the AUD/USD has entered a period of consolidation/corrective price action to work off overbought readings with an eye to the band of support between .6830/00 (uptrend support and the 200-day ma).

ASX 200 daily chart

 

AFreport0119012023.pngSource: TradingView

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ASX 200 afternoon report: 27th of January 2023

ASX 200 market update as of 27th January, 2.45 pm AEDT.

 

bg%20asx%20200%20639626932.jpgSource: Bloomberg

 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Friday 27 January 2023 

The ASX 200 trades 34 points (0.46%) higher at 7502 at 2.45 pm Sydney time.

The ASX 200 today traded to a fresh nine-month high, seemingly rejuvenated after yesterday's Australia Day public holiday and a strong session on Wall Street overnight.

Confounding those expecting an imminent slowdown in the world's largest economy, US growth data surprised to the upside overnight.

Q4 GDP beat estimates (2.9% vs 2.6% expected). Durable goods rose by 6.3%, while jobless claims fell to a nine-month low (197.5k vs 206.75k last week).

Throwing a bone to the bears, weaker-than-expected consumer spending within the GDP data, following a patch of soft retail sales - evidence that the Feds rate hiking cycle is dampening demand.

IT sector

The IT sector has outperformed, led by Megaport.

  • Megaport added 6.2% to $7.36
  • Sezzle added 6.15% to $0.69
  • BNPL stock ZIP added 4.92% to $0.69c
  • Tyro Payments added 4.18% to $1.56 on news that it had agreed to provide Potentia four weeks of due diligence to return with a higher bid.

Consumer-facing stocks

Consumer-facing stocks have shrugged off concerns that the RBA will resume its rate hiking cycle in February, following Wednesday's hotter-than-expected Australian inflation data.


For more on Australia's CPI data, read Tony's CPI print turns the blowtorch on RBA and ASX 200 analysis.

Financial sector

The ASX financial sector is on track to lock in a fourth week of gains in January (+5.94%).

  • Macquarie added 1.60% to $188.07
  • ANZ added 1.34% to $24.93
  • NAB added 1.18% to $31.85
  • Westpac added 1.08% to $23.93
  • CBA added 0.95% to $109.85 to be just $0.35c away from its all-time high at $110.19 after breaking above downtrend resistance.

Mining sector

The mining sector experienced a mixed day.


For more on the Australian stocks, read Tony's Three ASX stocks to watch article.

Technical analysis

The strong rally in the ASX 200 during January has the RSI indicator into overbought territory. For the Elliott Wave enthusiasts, there is evidence of a five-wave advance from the October 6411 low on bearish RSI divergence, which warns of a pullback.

We continue to favour trimming longs ahead of the bull market 7632 high and looking to either buy a sustained break of the 7632 high or a pullback into the 7200/7000 support area.

The AUD/USD is trading at .7113, supported by risk-seeking flows and Wednesdays hotter than expected Q4 AU inflation data. After reaching and marginally breaching our August .7137 target, we would like to see a pullback towards .6900c to work off overbought readings.

ASX 200 daily chart

 

 

 

 

 

ASX270123AFreort.pngSource: TradingView

Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.

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ASX 200 afternoon report: 31st of January 2023

ASX 200 market update as of 31st January, 3.30 pm AEDT.

 

bg%20rio%20tinto%20093480293484083.jpgSource: Bloomberg

 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 31 January 2023 

The ASX 200 trades 13 points (0.18%) lower at 7468 at 3.30 pm Sydney time.

The ASX 200 has reversed lower this afternoon on month-end selling rebalancing flows, and softer-than-expected retail sales and housing credit data for December.

Housing credit growth for December rose by just 0.3%, the slowest pace since October 2022. At the same time, Retail sales fell by 3.9% in December (vs -0.2% expected), the most significant monthly fall since August 2020.

While these numbers won’t stop the RBA from raising rates next week or ease downside concerns around the Australian housing market or household consumption, they have helped to ease expectations around the RBA’s peak cash rate as it fell from 3.85% to 3.75%.

Consumer Staple sector

Falling house prices, higher inflation and RBA rate hikes which will weigh on discretionary spending, have been behind the defensive Consumer Staple sector outperforming.

  • Woolworths added 3.2% to $35.88
  • Coles added 2.45% to $17.77
  • Metcash added 1.2% to $4.17
  • Infant formula maker Bubs Australia plunged 9.15% on disappointing sales in China from extended lockdowns.


What does soft housing and retail data mean for the AUD/USD? Read Tony's analysis here.


IT sector

  • Megaport plunged by 23% to $5.90 following a disappointing quarterly update
  • BNPL stocks Sezzle -7.69%
  • ZIP -3.28%
  • Block -2.37% fell following the release of the weaker-than-expected retail sales numbers, which will weigh on earnings.

Financial sector

The big banks have reversed lower on the toxic mix of weaker credit appetite and evidence that households are beginning to feel the impact of the cost-of-living pressures.

  • NAB fell -0.38% to $31.71
  • ANZ fell 0.24% to $24.97
  • Westpac fell -0.21% to $23.70
  • CBA is trading flat at $109.77, after making a fresh all-time high earlier today at $110.45.

Mining sector

A mixed day for the material stocks despite a bounce in China’s PMI data, now in expansionary territory at 50.1 following China’s re-opening in Mid-December.

Technical analysis

Over the past five sessions, there has been a notable loss of upside momentum in the ASX 200 - understandable after a storming run higher in January. Additionally, the ASX 200 is overbought, and for the Elliott Wave enthusiasts, there is a five-wave advance from the October 6411 low on bearish RSI divergence, which warns of a possible pullback.

We continue to favour trimming longs ahead of the bull market 7632 high and looking to either buy a sustained break of the 7632 high or a pullback into the 7200/7000 support area.

ASX 200 daily chart

 

AFreportTony310123.pngSource: TradingView The figures stated are as of January 31st, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.

Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.

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ASX 200 afternoon report: 2nd of February 2023

ASX 200 market update as of 2nd of February 2023, 3.00 pm AEDT.

 

BG_BHP_324232.jpgSource: Bloomberg

 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Thursday 02 February 2023 

The ASX 200 trades 12 points (0.16%) higher at 7514 at 3.00 pm Sydney time.

In a carbon copy of the price action viewed in the prior two sessions, the ASX 200 this morning traded to a fresh nine-month high before sellers again emerged to take the shine off early gains.

The disappointing performance comes despite a positive lead from Wall Street after Fed Chair Powell deviated from his hawkish script during this morning’s FOMC meeting, noting that the “disinflationary process has begun” and that it was “certainly possible” the Fed will keep its benchmark rate below 5%.

The persistent selling in the local market is likely a sizeable institutional player getting out of the Australian market in favour of global stock markets with a higher percentage of growth stocks than our value-laden index. Growth stocks are better positioned to benefit from an imminent Fed pause.

Or possibly on concerns the RBA still has a lot more work to do to break the back of stubborn inflation and speculation increases of a larger-than-expected RBA rate hike next week. More so after today’s strong rebound in building approvals which surged by 18.5% vs expectations of +1%.

IT sector

With those thoughts in mind, it’s no surprise that tech stocks have been the standout today.

Consumer Discretionary stocks

Consumer Discretionary stocks have also gained today.

Financial sector

The big banks have struggled with talk of a larger-than-expected RBA rate hike next week.

  • NAB fell 0.5% to $31.58
  • Westpac fell 0.34% to $23.52
  • ANZ fell 0.28% to $25.20
  • CBA is trading flat on the day at $110.12.

Mining sector

The big miners have fallen as the rotation from value to growth stocks gains traction.

Technical analysis

Over the past seven sessions, there has been a notable loss of upside momentum in the ASX 200. Additionally, the ASX 200 is overbought, and for the Elliott Wave followers, there is a five-wave advance from the October 6411 low, which warns of a possible pullback.

We continue to favour trimming longs ahead of the bull market 7632 high and looking to either buy a sustained break of the 7632 high or a pullback into the 7200/7000 support area.

ASX 200 daily chart

 

AFreoirttony020223.pngSource: TradingView

Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.

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ASX 200 afternoon report: 9th of February 2023

Find out all the latest information on the ASX 200 market. Updated as of 9th February, 3.00 pm AEDT.

 

BG_australia_aus_asx_3094886169651651919Source: Bloomberg

 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Thursday 09 February 2023 

The ASX 200 trades 43 points (-0.57%) lower at 7487 at 3.00 pm Sydney time.

The ASX 200 has slumped today, taking its lead from a fall on Wall Street, as Fed Speakers hit the wires to beat the hawkish drums and remind markets that higher rates will be required for longer to bring down inflation.

IT sector

The tech sector experienced losses today, led by Google.

  • Google fell 7.44% after its new AI intelligence chatbot Bard underwhelmed
  • Sezzle fell 8.53%
  • ZIP fell 5.91%
  • Megaport fell 5.65% as it elected not to pay a dividend
  • Novonix fell 4.72% to $1.72.

AGL fell 11% after reporting a loss of $ 1.1 billion for the first half of the year. It also slashed guidance and its interim dividend to 8c per share. Elsewhere, Real Estate heavyweight Mirvac slumped 5% to $2.28 as wet weather, interest rate hikes, and labour shortages limited its first-half earnings.

Financial sector

The pressure of this week’s RBA rate hike and intensification in the fight for new deposits has hada negative effect on all banks apart from ANZ.

  • ANZ has added 0.23% to $23.85 after its upbeat trading update
  • NAB fell 0.8% to $31.80
  • Westpac fell 0.36% to $23.82
  • CBA fell 0.4% to $109.89.

Mining sector

The 40% fall in the price of coal out of Newcastle since the start of the year continues to weigh on the coal miners.

Technical analysis

We view the ASX 200 as being stretched to the upside and overbought after five straight weeks of gains. For the Elliott Wave followers, there is a five-wave advance from the October 6411 low to this week’s 7567.7 high. All of which warn that a pullback is looming.

A break of support at 7460/50 (coming from recent lows) would indicate that a medium-term high is in place and that a corrective pullback is underway. We continue to favour trimming longs ahead of the bull market 7632 high and looking to either buy a sustained break of the 7632 high or a pullback into the 7200/7000 support area.

ASX 200 daily chart

 

 

ASX200-TS-090223.pngSource: TradingView. The figures stated are as of February 9th, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.

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ASX 200 afternoon report: 14th of February 2023

Find out all the latest information on the ASX 200 market. Updated as of 14th February, 3.00 pm AEDT.

 

bg%20nab%20national%20australia%20bank%2Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 14 February 2023 

The ASX 200 trades 16 points (+0.22%) higher at 7434 at 3.00 pm Sydney time.

After sprinting out of the starting gates, the ASX 200 erased over 40 points of early gains after the Westpac Consumer confidence fell by 6.9% in February in response to last week’s hawkish RBA meeting and cost of living pressures.

As noted by Westpac, “At 78.5, the latest Index read is a touch above the 78 read in November but below the low point of the GFC (79.0) and only slightly higher than when the COVID pandemic first hit in April 2020 (75.6). Prior to that, we need to go back to the deep recession in the early 1990s to find weaker Index readings.”

Highlighting an apparent disconnect between a pessimistic household sector and the optimistic business sector, the NAB business Confidence survey released an hour later rose 6 points to 6 in January, to be back around the long-run average.

IT sector

The IT Sector has gained, led by a rebound in Megaport.

  • Megaport added 3.42% to $6.04
  • Wisetech Global added 2.3% to $56.62
  • Afterpay owner Block added 2.3% to $110.79
  • Xero added 1.7% to $78.17
  • Appen extended its decline following its earnings report yesterday, falling 6.76% to $2.62.

Healthcare sector

Healthcare heavyweight CSL gained 0.76% to $307.75 after its earnings report showed an 8% fall in net profit it $US1.62bn, offset by a 19% rise in revenues to $US7.19bn and a 36% increase in plasma collections.

Going the other way, Ansell fell 8.79% to $25.62 after it cut FY23 guidance as demand for its protective medical equipment continues to ease from pandemic highs.

Consumer Discretionary stocks

The share price of Star Entertainment which fell over 20% yesterday, fell another 12% today to $1.31 after reporting increased competition from Crown Sydney and compliance costs following the Bell and Gotterson Reviews.

Elsewhere there were gains for fellow consumer facing stocks including:

Financial sector

Reflecting on today's conflicting Consumer and Business confidence data, the big banks have had a mixed day.

  • NAB added +0.64% to $31.58
  • Westpac added 0.13% to $23.73
  • ANZ traded flat at $25.70
  • CBA fell 0.14% to $109.13.

Mining sector

The big mining stocks have traded sideways as iron ore prices continue to hold around $120 per tonne.

 

Technical analysis

For the past three weeks, we have suggested trimming longs in the ASX 200 ahead of a likely pullback. Last week’s retreat erased the prior two weeks’ gains and indicates that the pullback we had been calling for is underway (in the vicinity of 4-5%).

ASX 200 daily chart

 

 

Tony-AF-140223.pngSource: TradingView

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ASX 200 afternoon report: 16th of February 2023

Find out all the latest information on the ASX 200. Updated as of 16th February, 3.00 pm AEDT.

 

bg_anz_364093456.jpgSource: Bloomberg

 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Thursday 16 February 2023 

The ASX 200 trades 59 points (0.81%) higher at 7411 at 3.00 pm Sydney time.

Building on a positive lead from Wall Street, the ASX 200 found another gear higher following the release of softer-than-expected Australian labour market data.

Employment declined by 12k in January, the second negative print in a row, while the unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.7% in January, to be just 0.1% below the RBA’s 3.8% end-of-year forecast. The rise in the unemployment rate came despite the participation rate dropping to 66.5%, falling further from the 66.8% high of November.

Despite the possibility of some seasonal effects in play over the holiday season, the RBA, currently under fire, will take some relief from the notion that the unemployment rate troughed in October at 3.4% and that there is further evidence of cooling in the labour market.

The Consumer Discretionary sectors led the charge higher, responding to the softer jobs data and lower bond yields. Super Retail Group added 3.5% to $12.39, supported by a strong earnings report showing profits surged 30%. Kogan added 1.9% to $3.77, Nick Scali added 2.6% to $10.42, and Myer added 2% to .88c.

IT stocks gained, led by Afterpay owner Block which added 8.96%. Fellow BNPL stock Zip added 8.11% to $0.60c, Megaport gained 7.6% to $6.37, and Sezzle added 7.27% to $0.59c.

After yesterday’s horror show, three of the big banks have been able to steady the ship. NAB added +0.97% to $30.65. ANZ added 0.73% to $24.96, and Westpac added 0.43% to $22.93.

The share price of CBA remains under siege, trading down another 0.8% at $102.96 ahead of its ex-dividend date. AMP fell 13.75% to $1.13 on news of investment losses and more outflows from its superannuation business.

Another tough day for coal mining stocks. New Hope coal fell 4.2% to $5.49, and Whitehaven coal fell 3.54% to $7.90 after their earnings updates missed the mark. Yancoal fell 3.12% to $5.59, which is affected by the NSW government’s new price cap policy under which Yancoal will not be compensated for the difference between market and price cap rates.

Technical analysis

After its rampaging run higher during the opening weeks of 2023, we shifted from a bullish view to a more cautious one in late January and suggested cutting longs ahead of the bull market 7632 high. Last week’s more hawkish-than-expected RBA meeting reinforced the pullback view, further amplified by a number of 1H 2023 earnings landmines.

We will look to start rebuying towards the 7200/7000 support area (uptrend support from the October 6411 low and the 200-day moving average), which represents a 5-7% pullback from the February highs.

ASX 200 daily chart

 

 

ASX200-160223-1.pngSource: TradingView. The figures stated are as of February 16th, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

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ASX 200 afternoon report: 21st of February 2023

Find out all the latest information on the ASX 200 market. Updated as of 21st February 3.30 pm Sydney time.

 

bg%20rio%20tinto%20093480293484083.jpgSource: Bloomberg

 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 21 February 2023 

It’s been a roller coaster ride on the ASX 200 today, which in early trading, fell to a five-week low at 7297 before embarking on a 40-point recovery in the afternoon session.

Mining sector

The recovery was led by the big miners as the price of iron ore futures in Asia climbed above $131 per tonne following an upgrade by a US investment bank.

Consumer-facing stocks

The release of the RBA meeting minutes, which reiterated the hawkish tone of the February Board Meeting, heaped more pain on consumer-facing stocks.

  • A2M fell 5.16% to $6.16, extending falls after yesterday’s earning miss
  • Endeavour Group fell 2.54% to $6.71
  • Coles fell 1.6% to $18.01 despite its stronger-than-expected earnings report
  • Blackmores fell 1.55% to $84.20
  • Altium fell 6.84% to $27.27 after reporting mixed earnings yesterday afternoon
  • Sezzle fell 1.72% to $0.57c
  • Computershare fell 1.37% to $23.78
  • Seek fell 1.13% to $24.05.

Real estate sector

The real estate sector has fallen, led by a 3.6% fall in Stockland Group after its earnings results were impacted by wet weather and interest rate rise uncertainty—a similar story to the one we have had from other developers this earnings season. Lend Lease fell 1.86% to $7.64, and Goodman Group fell 1.7% to $19.47.

Financial sector

The bargain hunters who bravely stuck their hands up yesterday to buy banking stocks after last week's sharp falls were nowhere to be seen today.

  • Westpac fell 1.04% to $22.77
  • NAB fell 0.83% to $30.05
  • ANZ fell 0.7% to $24.57
  • CBA, which trades ex-dividend on Wednesday, fell 0.6% to $101.64.

Lithium sector

A better day for Lithium miners as Pilbara Resources snapped its four-day losing streak adding 4.76% to $4.40.

Technical analysis

In late January, we shifted from a bullish view of the ASX 200 and suggested cutting longs ahead of the bull market 7632 high. Our target for the current pullback is the 7200/7000 support area, coming from the uptrend support from the October 6411 low and the 200-day moving average.

ASX 200 daily chart

 

 

Picture1-asx200-tony.pngSource: TradingView. The figures stated are as of February 21st, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.

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ASX 200 afternoon report: 23rd of February 2023

Find out all the latest information on the ASX 200 market. Updated as of 23rd February, 3.15 pm Sydney time.

 

bg_trader_chart_378467719.jpgSource: Bloomberg

 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Thursday 23 February 2023 

The ASX 200 trades 27.50 points lower (-0.37%) at 7287 at 3.15 pm.

The ASX 200 has fallen for a third straight session, taking its lead from Wall Street after the minutes from the last FOMC meeting failed to detail the criteria for a Fed pause and noted that a “few” members called for a 50 bp rate rise to slow inflation.

Another round of disappointing earnings reports also buffeted the local market. Fund manager Platinum became the latest high-profile stock to feel the wrath of shareholders as it fell 16.3% to $1.90 following its earnings report that showed a 37.4% fall in profits on top of investor outflows.

The share price of Qantas fell 7% to $6.02, despite reporting a record first-half-year profit of $1.4 billion. Higher than expected capex and an expectation that airfares will fall during the second half of the year suggest the tailwinds of the Covid re-opening will soon become headwinds for the flying Kangaroo.


Mining sector

The big miners found themselves in the firing line again today after Rio Tinto's earning report released after the market closed showed its underlying profit fell by 38% to $ 13.28 billion, missing expectations of $13.96 billion.

  • Rio Tinto fell 2.3% to $122.59
  • BHP fell 3.58% to $46.61
  • South32 fell 1.53% to $4.52
  • Mineral Resources added 2.1% to $86.58 as it expanded its investment in a lithium hydroxide plant in China.


Financial sector

The share price of the big banks remains under pressure following their updates last week.

  • NAB fell 0.7% to $29.85
  • Macquarie lost 0.7% to $188.98
  • Westpac fell by 0.7% to $22.72
  • ANZ fell 0.56% to $24.79.


Health Care sector

In an otherwise dreary day, the defensive Health Care sector has been a shining light led by Telix Pharmaceuticals which added 4% to $6.54.


Consumer-facing stocks

Star Entertainment confirmed speculation that it needed capital after it announced an $800m capital raising at $1.20 per share.

  • Bega Cheese which fell 8.2% to $3.29
  • ZIP fell 7% to $0.53c
  • Blackmores fell 6.5% to $79.19 as it provided guidance but lifted its dividend by 38% to $0.87c
  • Domino's Pizza climbed 1.7% to $55.33 as bargain hunters took advantage of its 23% fall yesterday.

ASX 200 technical analysis

Technically the pullback in the ASX 200 from the February 6th 7567 high is nearing the 7200/7000 support band (coming from the uptrend support from the October 6411 low and the 200-day moving average) we have been targeting since late January.

ASX 200 daily chart

 

 

AF-report-230223.pngSource TradingView. The figures stated are as of February 23rd, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.

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ASX 200 afternoon report: 27th of February 2023

Find out all the latest information on the ASX 200 market. Updated as of 27th February, 2.30 pm Sydney time.

 

BG_australia_aus_asx_3094886169651651919Source: Bloomberg

 

 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 27 February 2023 

The ASX 200 trades 90 points lower (-1.24%) at 7216 at 2.30 pm.

With one full trading session left in February, the ASX 200 is in danger of ending the month near where it was trading in Mid-January after plunging by 1.6% this morning to a six-week low of 7193.4.

The catalyst for the ASX 200's sell-off, heavy falls on Wall Street after the Feds preferred measure of inflation, Core PCE stunned to the upside (4.7% vs 4.3% expected) on Friday evening.

The latest round of hotter-than-expected US economic data has added to concerns that the US economy is not slowing enough to allow the Fed to end its rate-hiking cycle. A similar story is also playing out in Australia as hotter-than-expected inflation data push the RBA towards extending its own tightening cycle.

The ASX 200 disappointing performance in February, compounded by an earnings season skewed towards earnings misses rather than beats and forward guidance, particularly from consumer-facing companies that suggest more challenging times lay ahead.

This puts the spotlight on tomorrow's release of Australian Retail Sales for January. Following a surprise -3.9% fall in December, which appeared to be related to Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales, the market is looking for a rebound in retail sales tomorrow by 1.5%.

As always, there is a wide range of expectations from +5% to -1%. However, given retail sales are more likely to be slowing due to the RBA's interest rate tightening cycle and cost of living pressures, we see the risks as being to the downside.

Returning to today's action. Last week's worst-performing sector, the Materials Sector, has fallen a further 2.83% today, following a crackdown on pollution in China that has weighed on iron ore prices. Mineral Resources fell 5.91% to $79.89, Fortescue Metals fell 5.84% to $21.13, Rio Tinto fell 2.53%, and BHP fell 2.43% to $44.83.

The share price of Domino's pizza fell another 5.44% to $50.30 and is back trading at its pre-covid levels after hitting a Covid high of $167.15! Super Retail Group fell 2.07% to $13.25, Aristocrat fell 2% to $36.13, and Nick Scali fell 1.92% to $9.71.

The big four banks have gained, led by NAB, which added 0.4% to $29.97, Westpac added 0.35% to $22.75, CBA added 0.22% to $101.41 while ANZ added 0.08% to $24.81. Macquarie lost 0.95% to $187.12.

A sea of red in the Lithium space led by Pilbara Minerals, which fell 5.41% to $4.29 back to where it was trading last week prior to its announcement it would pay its first-ever dividend. Galan Lithium fell 5.22% to $1.09, Liontown Resources fell 4.95% to $1.30, and Alkem fell 4.92% to $11.29.

The pullback in the ASX 200 from the February 6th 7567 high has today reached the upper echelon of the 7200/7000 support band we have been targeting since late January. Providing this support level holds, we expect to see a recovery towards the 7400/7600 resistance area.

ASX 200 daily chart

 

AF-27-02-23-.pngSource: TradingView

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GDP review and ASX 200 afternoon report: 1st of March 2023

ASX 200 market update and GDP review as of 1st March, 3.00 pm, Sydney time.

 

bg%20asx%20200%20639626932.jpgSource: Bloomberg

 
 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Wednesday 01 March 2023 

The ASX 200 trades six points higher (0.09%) at 7264 at 3 pm, Sydney time.

GDP review

The ASX 200 has rebounded from early losses following the release of weaker-than-expected Australian Q4 GDP and a lower-than-expected monthly CPI that have combined to ease RBA “rate hike fever” that has swept through markets since early February.

The volatile monthly CPI indicator (which considers updates for only 62% of the basket and has a limited history) showed inflation in January increased by 7.4%, slowing from its 8.4% reading in December, below market consensus for an 8% rise. While caution is required around reading too much into this measure - taken at face value, peak quarterly inflation may now have passed.

Turning to the national accounts, the Australian Q4 GDP rose by 0.5% QoQ (vs 0.7% exp) to be 2.7% higher on the year and although this is the fifth consecutive increase, growth has slowed in the last two quarters.

Key highlights:

  • Consumer spending grew by 0.3%, the weakest quarterly result since the Covid-19 Delta variant lockdowns in September 2021. This is a red flag that consumers are tightening their belts after feeling pressure from higher interest rates and increased cost of living costs
  • Net exports added 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth, and inventories detracted 0.5 percentage points
  • Australia’s terms of trade rose 0.6% as growth in export prices (+1.8%) outpaced import prices (+1.3%). Mining commodities drove the rise in export prices. The depreciation of the Australian dollar contributed to the increase of import prices
  • The household saving ratio declined from 7.1% to 4.5%, the lowest level since September 2017. Another red flag that signals consumers are digging into savings to counter the cost of living and mortgage pressure.


Afternoon report

Materials sector

The Materials sector, which fell 6.90% in February, led today’s rebound supported by the strength of Chinese PMI data.

Consumer-facing stocks

Consumer-facing stocks have fallen as today’s GDP data showed that consumers are now in belt-tightening mode.

 

Financial sector

The big four banks have also fallen for the same reason outlined above, a development that will further dampen the appetite for credit.

  • ANZ fell 1.3% to $24.33
  • CBA fell 1.23% to $99.45
  • NAB fell 1.9% to $29.44
  • Westpac fell 2% to $22.09.


ASX 200 technical analysis

Earlier this week, the ASX 200 reached the upper echelon of the 7200/7000 support band we have targeted since late January. Providing this support level holds, we expect to see a recovery towards the 7400/7600 resistance area.

ASX 200 daily chart

 

 

XJO_2023-03-01_15-04-42.pngSource: TradingView

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  • 4 weeks later...

ASX 200 afternoon report: 27th of March 2023

ASX 200 market update as of 27th of March, 3.30pm AEDT.

 

BG_australia_aus_asx_3094886169651651919Source: Bloomberg

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 27 March 2023 

The ASX 200 trades 7 points higher (0.10%) at 6962 at 3.30pm.

The ASX 200 has today made a positive start looking to end its seven-week losing streak. A lack of fresh bad banking news over the weekend, along with reports of a possible buyer of Silicon Valley Bank, provided the catalyst for early gains.

However, without some clarity around protection for US bank deposits over $250,000 and reports that Russia will station nuclear weapons in neighbour Belarus, there was only limited appetite for anything other than a tepid rally.

Geopolitics and banking crises aside, this week also sees a renewed focus on Australian macro data ahead of next week’s RBA Board Meeting. Tuesday 28th of March sees the release of retail sales data for February, followed by monthly inflation data on Wednesday.

Both data points were highlighted by the RBA Board minutes as two of the four it will be watching closely s it looks to pause its rate hiking cycle as early as next week.

Members “agreed that upcoming releases on employment, inflation, retail trade and business surveys would provide important additional information, as would developments in the global economy.”

Banking sector

It’s been a mixed day for the banking sector.

  • NAB climbed 0.7% to $27.37
  • Westpac added 0.26% to $21.26
  • ANZ added 0.09% to $22.55
  • CBA fell 0.4% to $95.45
  • Macquarie fell 0.8% to $168.22.

 

Energy sector

Energy stocks have fallen on news that the Green party will support Labor’s energy package plan.

 

Consumer Staple sector

The defensive Consumer Staple sector gained, led by Endeavour Group, which added 3.71% to $6.98.

 

Lithium stocks

The recent carnage in the Lithium sector has continued today as Lake Resources fell 11.46% to $0.43c on news that its Non-Executive Director, Stuart Crow, sold about $4 million worth of shares last week.

ASX 200 technical analysis

Providing the ASX 200 continues to hold above support 6910/00, the pullback from the February 7567 high is viewed as a countertrend (an "ABC" Elliott Wave correction), and a rebound is expected to follow. Aware that should the ASX 200 see a sustained break below support at 6910/00, it would negate our positive bias and warn of a retest of the bottom of its 12-month range at 6410.

ASX 200 daily chart

 

XJO_2023-03-27_15-32-32.pngSource: TradingView

  1. TradingView: the figures stated are as of March 27th, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation.
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