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ASX 200 market update as on 13 December.

1670908499126.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 
 
 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 13 December 2022 

The ASX 200 trades 13 points higher (0.18%) at 7194 at 3.30 pm Sydney time.

A sense of relief flowed across Wall Street overnight as U.S consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead declined to 5.2% in November, the lowest since August 2021.

While key U.S. equity markets latched onto the good news, rallying between 1.2% and 1.4%, the ASX 200 has displayed much more restraint today ahead of a bigger test tonight in the shape of monthly U.S. CPI data.

The consensus forecast is for headline U.S. inflation to slow to 7.3% y/y in November from 7.7% y/y. Core CPI is expected to slow to 6.1% y/y from 6.3% y/y in October.

If the headline inflation rate remains stable OR rises, buckle up for a rocky ride on the ASX 200 tomorrow. On the other hand, if the headline inflation rate is softer than the consensus forecast, it could trigger the Christmas rally in the ASX 200 to kick into gear.

Shaking off a decline in Australian Business Confidence and a tepid bounce in Consumer confidence, financial stocks have rallied, led by Bendigo Bank, which gained 7% to $9.68 after a strong trading update. ANZ added 1.8% to $23.97, NAB gained 1.57% to $30.67, CBA added 0.95% to $106.93, and Westpac added 0.81% to $23.55.

Recovering from yesterday’s carnage, Tyro Payments has surged by 21.6% to $1.46 on talk that suitor Potentia could return with a sweetened offer. Megaport added 5.95% to $7.12, Afterpay owner Block added 3.75% to $97.02, while fellow BNPL stock ZIP cratered by 9% to $0.65c after the company announced an unexpected capital raising.

The share price of the big iron ore miners has fallen as the price of iron ore on the Chinese Dalian futures exchange slipped by 1.8% shortly after the opening. Fortescue Metals fell 3.6% to $20.37, Rio Tinto fell 2.11% to $113.90, and BHP fell 1.73% to $46.00.

After an impressive run-up from its October lows, the pullback we have wanted to see to work off overbought readings is rapidly maturing. The preference is to accumulate into a pullback into the 7100/7000 area leaning against the support provided by the 200-day moving average at 7000.

The AUD/USD continues to find resistance up near .6800c, a bridge too far and is currently trading at .6743.

ASX 200 daily chart

1670908181201.pngSource: TradingView

Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.

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ASX 200 afternoon report: December 14

ASX 200 market update as of December 14, 3.15 pm AEDT.

1670993958064.jpgSource: Bloomberg
 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Wednesday 14 December 2022 

The ASX 200 trades 43 points higher (0.59%) at 7246 at 3.15 pm Sydney time.

A sea of green across the regional bourse today, and the ASX 200 has been a willing participant after U.S headline inflation slowed by more than expected for a second consecutive month.

While it’s still early for the Fed to declare victory in its war on surging prices, the slower rate of inflation will allow the Fed to ease the pace of its rate hiking cycle from 75bp to 50bp at tomorrow morning’s FOMC meeting.

However, the last thing that Fed Chair Powell wants to see is another easing in financial conditions after yields and the greenback cratered overnight. Expect to see hawkish tones ring out from the Fed Chair in the accompanying statement and press conference.

Nonetheless, interest rate-sensitive tech stocks have joined today’s rally. Afterpay owner Block added 8% to $104.15, Novonix added 5.5% to $1.92, and Megaport continued its good run adding 3% to $7.33.

Energy sector

Energy stocks have gained as the softer-than-expected inflation data raised expectations of a soft landing, sending the price of crude oil back above $75.00.

Coal miners have continued to bounce back from their legislation inspired sell-off earlier in the week.

The share price of the big iron ore miners has rebounded as authorities in China press ahead with their rapid reopening plans and support for the property sector.

 

Banks

A mixed day for the banks as Bendigo handed back a good chunk of yesterday’s gains.

  • Bendigo Bank fell -4.24% to $9.26
  • NAB fell -0.9% to $30.51
  • ANZ fell -0.85% to $23.90
  • Macquarie Bank added 0.7% to $174.16.

Technically, a push above 7300 in the ASX 200 would indicate that the pullback/correction from the 7375 high is complete at Monday’s 7156.5 low and that the Santa Claus rally has commenced.

The AUD/USD is trading at .6830, after reaching a 13-week high overnight at .6894.

ASX 200 daily chart

1670993723922.pngSource: TradingView

Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.

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ASX 200 afternoon report: 16th of January 2023

ASX 200 market update as of 16th January, 3.15 pm AEDT.

 

bg%20Commonwealth%20Bank%20of%20AustraliSource: Bloomberg

 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Monday 16 January 2023 

2023 is the Year of the Rabbit in the China Zodiac - fitting that the rebound in the ASX 200 in the first weeks of this year has stemmed from optimism around China’s re-opening and as the Federal Reserve appears on the verge of pulling a rabbit out of the hat.

After 425bp of rate hikes in just seven months, cooling US inflation is expected to see the Federal Reserve downshift the pace of its rate-hiking cycle at the February FOMC meeting bringing relief to markets.

More so as the tightening cycle appears to have been without serious pain to US consumers.

On Friday night, the University of Michigan Consumer sentiment index rose to 64.6 in January, trouncing market expectations for a modest rise to 60.5 in January.

IT sector

Returning to the local market, the IT sector outperformed after the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 5.5% last week.


Energy sector

An 8.27% rebound in the price of crude oil last week to above $80 p/b has supported energy stocks.

Financial sector

At a sector level, the ASX Financial Sector added 2.79% last week but remains 5% below its all-time high. After the majority of Wall Street banks that reported last week beat earnings estimates, further upside in the ASX Financial sector seems likely.

  • ANZ added 1.45% to $24.85
  • NAB added 1.26% to $31.70
  • Macquarie added 1% to $180.06
  • CBA added 0.85% to $107.43, seemingly locked and loaded to test its all-time $110.19 high.

For more on the banks, please read today's Three Stocks to Watch article.

News that China’s National Development and Reform Commission will crack down on spreading false information and price gouging in the iron ore market has weighed on the price of iron ore futures and Fortescue Metals, which fell 2.61% to $22.21. BHP traded to a new high at $50.00 before easing to be trading flat on the day at $49.63. Rio Tinto fell 0.22% to $122.02.

Apart from the silly sell-off on Day 1 of the New Year, which was flagged at the time as likely a false break lower, the ASX 200 has followed the road map nicely to test and break above the December 7375 high. The preference now is to look to trim longs into fresh highs, ideally between 7480 and 7600.

The AUD/USD is trading higher at .7010, its first time above .70c in four months. Today's break of resistance at .6890/00 should see the V push towards the mid-August .7137 high.

 

ASXreport160123.pngSource: TradingView

Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.

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ASX 200 afternoon report: 19th of January 2023

The ASX 200 trades 43 points higher (0.60%) at 7437 at 3.00 pm AEDT.

 

BG_rio_tinto_34234234.jpgSource: Bloomberg

 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Thursday 19 January 2023 

The ASX 200, uninterested right from the opening bell in replicating the overnight sell-off on Wall Street, has today traded up to 7439.7 its highest price in nine months.

The spark for the latest leg of the ASX 200’s remarkable run higher in 2023, the release of softer-than-expected jobs data for December and sharp selloff in bond yields.

Within the report’s details, jobs fell by 14.6k in December (the market was looking for a rise of 25k), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5% after last month’s number was revised higher from 3.4% to 3.5%.

Overlayed with the 4.9% fall in job vacancies last week and the rapid return of immigration, the unemployment rate looks set to extend its move towards 4% this year, away from the 3.4% low of October 2022.

Energy sector

A rise in the price of iron ore in Asia to above $124.00 has helped Rio Tinto make fresh cycle highs as it added 4.05% to $126.05, 42% above its October low. BHP is back for a closer look at the $50 level, aided by record iron ore production as it added 1.3% to $49.72, while Fortescue Mining added 1.42% to 22.52.

Real estate and finances

The interest rate-sensitive Real Estate sector has gained, led by Goodman Group, which added 1.62% to $19.39, Stockland Group added 1.04% to $3.90, and Charter Hall Group added 0.65% to $13.22.

The ASX Financial Sector, now up 1.69% for the week, continued its advance towards its all-time high. Macquarie added 1.33% to $181.98, CBA added 0.63% to $108.33, Westpac added 0.63% to $23.97, and NAB added 0.44% to $31.81.

Nanosonics added 8.86% to $5.16 after the infections preventative company reported that total revenue for the 1H is expected to be up 35% year on year, along with an increase in gross profit margins from 77% to 79%.

IT sector

Local IT stocks fell after the tech-heavy Nasdaq snapped its seven-session winning streak overnight. Novonix fell 4.42% to $1.84, Life360 fell 3.47% to $5.57, and after a good run higher, ZIP fell 3.28% to $0.66c.

The ASX 200 has followed the road map over the past month and a half.

The correction from the December 7375 high back to the 200-day moving average at 7000 set the platform for this week’s push above the December 7375 high. We prefer to reduce longs into fresh highs, ideally between 7480 and 7600.

The AUD/USD is trading lower at .6905, a whopping 2.3% below its .7064 overnight high. The view is the AUD/USD has entered a period of consolidation/corrective price action to work off overbought readings with an eye to the band of support between .6830/00 (uptrend support and the 200-day ma).

ASX 200 daily chart

 

AFreport0119012023.pngSource: TradingView

Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.

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ASX 200 afternoon report: 27th of January 2023

ASX 200 market update as of 27th January, 2.45 pm AEDT.

 

bg%20asx%20200%20639626932.jpgSource: Bloomberg

 

 Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Friday 27 January 2023 

The ASX 200 trades 34 points (0.46%) higher at 7502 at 2.45 pm Sydney time.

The ASX 200 today traded to a fresh nine-month high, seemingly rejuvenated after yesterday's Australia Day public holiday and a strong session on Wall Street overnight.

Confounding those expecting an imminent slowdown in the world's largest economy, US growth data surprised to the upside overnight.

Q4 GDP beat estimates (2.9% vs 2.6% expected). Durable goods rose by 6.3%, while jobless claims fell to a nine-month low (197.5k vs 206.75k last week).

Throwing a bone to the bears, weaker-than-expected consumer spending within the GDP data, following a patch of soft retail sales - evidence that the Feds rate hiking cycle is dampening demand.

IT sector

The IT sector has outperformed, led by Megaport.

  • Megaport added 6.2% to $7.36
  • Sezzle added 6.15% to $0.69
  • BNPL stock ZIP added 4.92% to $0.69c
  • Tyro Payments added 4.18% to $1.56 on news that it had agreed to provide Potentia four weeks of due diligence to return with a higher bid.

Consumer-facing stocks

Consumer-facing stocks have shrugged off concerns that the RBA will resume its rate hiking cycle in February, following Wednesday's hotter-than-expected Australian inflation data.


For more on Australia's CPI data, read Tony's CPI print turns the blowtorch on RBA and ASX 200 analysis.

Financial sector

The ASX financial sector is on track to lock in a fourth week of gains in January (+5.94%).

  • Macquarie added 1.60% to $188.07
  • ANZ added 1.34% to $24.93
  • NAB added 1.18% to $31.85
  • Westpac added 1.08% to $23.93
  • CBA added 0.95% to $109.85 to be just $0.35c away from its all-time high at $110.19 after breaking above downtrend resistance.

Mining sector

The mining sector experienced a mixed day.


For more on the Australian stocks, read Tony's Three ASX stocks to watch article.

Technical analysis

The strong rally in the ASX 200 during January has the RSI indicator into overbought territory. For the Elliott Wave enthusiasts, there is evidence of a five-wave advance from the October 6411 low on bearish RSI divergence, which warns of a pullback.

We continue to favour trimming longs ahead of the bull market 7632 high and looking to either buy a sustained break of the 7632 high or a pullback into the 7200/7000 support area.

The AUD/USD is trading at .7113, supported by risk-seeking flows and Wednesdays hotter than expected Q4 AU inflation data. After reaching and marginally breaching our August .7137 target, we would like to see a pullback towards .6900c to work off overbought readings.

ASX 200 daily chart

 

 

 

 

 

ASX270123AFreort.pngSource: TradingView

Take your position on over 13,000 local and international shares via CFDs or share trading – and trade it all seamlessly from the one account. Learn more about share CFDs or shares trading with us, or open an account to get started today.

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