RBA February preview and what comes next for the ASX 200?
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10/06/21 11:53
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Dow, Nasdaq 100 and CAC40 struggle in early trading Indices are under pressure again as oil prices and bond yields continue to rise. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 28 September 2023 11:38 Dow eats into Wednesday’s recovery The index briefly slumped to its lowest level since early June yesterday, heading towards the 33,230 level. A rebound from the lows helped to avoid another weak close but the general bearish move remains firmly in place. More losses target the May lows around 32,700. Buyers will be looking for a move back above 33,827 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) to suggest that a low has formed. Intraday movement has been capped by the 50-hour SMA over the past week. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq 100 bounce fizzles The index managed to eke out a small rally yesterday off the lows, but has struggled to push higher in early trading this morning. This has put the price back above the August low of 14,553, so if this holds buyers may attempt to wrest control and drive the index back towards 15,000. A close back below 14,550 would mark a bearish development, potentially open the way towards the June lows at 14,230. Source: ProRealTime CAC40 stuck below previous support After falling just below the 7100 support zone earlier in the week, the index has managed to avoid any further steep losses for the time being. The March lows at 6900 beckon in the event of a fresh drop, while on the upside 7100 could act as resistance in the short-term now it has been broken as support. A longer-term bullish view would require a close back above 7200. Source: ProRealTime -
Discover how the ASX 200 fared in September and its prospects for a rebound. Source: Bloomberg Indices ASX Inflation Interest rate S&P 500 Australia Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Thursday 28 September 2023 09:18 The ASX 200: a look at September's performance A tough September September has once again lived up to its reputation as the worst month of the year for the ASX 200, currently down 3.68% month to date (MTD) with one full trading session left to go. Mixed performance in 2023 The ASX 200's disappointing performance in September follows a losing month in August (-1.42%), which has conspired to see the ASX 200 trading flat on the year (excluding dividends). The Australian bourse has returned a meager 3.5% in 2023 if dividends are included. A return that seems incomprehensible after the ASX 200 leaped from the starting blocks, adding a rapid-fire 6.22% in January on optimism around the China reopening and hopes that the headwinds of rising interest rates and inflation encountered in 2022 were in the rearview mirror: most of which we now know were unfounded. ASX 200 vs. global indices The reopening in China faded soon after, and still, three-quarters of the way through the year remains elusive. Interest rates, particularly at the long end of the curve, have raced higher both domestically and abroad. The jury remains out as to whether central banks have tightened policy enough to bottle the inflation genie. Optimists may point out that the ASX 200 has outperformed in September relative to US indices, given that both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are down over 5% MTD. However, that would overlook the fact that an index with a similar makeup to Australia’s, the FTSE 100, with its large weighting of miners, financial, and energy stocks, is on track for a positive month and a positive quarter. ASX 200 sector analysis At a sector level, all 11 ASX sectors appear poised to close lower for the month. The interest-sensitive real estate and IT sectors have been the main casualties, currently down by -6.57% and -5.46% MTD respectively The healthcare sector, representing 10.06% of the index, has declined by -4.58% in September The materials sector, accounting for a substantial 23.8% weighting within the index, has fallen by -3.16% in September The financial sector, comprising 27.1% of the index, is down by -0.37% in September The energy sector, making up 6.3% of the index, has been the best-performing sector this month. However, despite the price of crude oil surging by over 13% in September, the ASX 200 energy sector is down by -0.17% MTD. ASX sector breakdown chart Source: SPGlobal.com ASX technical analysis The ASX 200 has spent the bulk of this year trading sideways in a range, above year-to-date lows at 6900 and below year-to-date high at 7567, struck in early February. The sideways price action in 2023 appears corrective and follows an impulsive five-wave rally (Elliott Wave) from the October 2022 double low at 6411 to the 7567 high of February this year. With the ASX 200 trading towards the bottom of its range, combined with the S&P 500 cash reaching our 4250/00 pullback target, we turn tactically bullish on the ASX 200, looking for a return to range (7440) highs and possibly year-to-date highs (7567). Stops on the bullish view would be if the ASX 200 were to see a sustained close below 6900, aware that should support at 6900 give way, the risks are for a test of 6750 before the 2022 lows at 6400. ASX 200 daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: the figures stated are as of September 28, 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation. This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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WTI rallies to one-year high, gold drops to six-month low and Arabica coffee slips to support Source: Bloomberg Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 28 September 2023 11:28 WTI rallies to 13-month high WTI’s rally to an over one-year high on the back of a sharp decline in US crude stockpiles exacerbated concerns about tight global supplies is showing no signs of slowing down. The August 2022 peak at $97.34 per barrel represents the next upside target. Potential slips should find support around the mid-September high at $92.38. Source: ProRealTime Gold drops to six-month low Gold’s descent from last week’s $1,947 per troy ounce peak accelerated to the downside and after three consecutive days of lower prices has taken it to a six-month low at $1,873 per troy ounce. Below this level lies the early March high at $1,858 ahead of the late February high at $1,847. Resistance can now be encountered between the August low at $1,885 and the June and mid-September lows at $1,893 to $1,901. Source: ProRealTime Arabica Coffee find interim support Front month Arabica Coffee futures have slid to their 2023 uptrend line which has once again offered support as draught fears dissipate. Wednesday’s low at 14,803, right on the January-to-September uptrend line, was made marginally above the August and current September lows at 14,761 to 14,711. If fallen through, the January low at 14,288 would be in sight. Minor resistance above Tuesday’s 15,247 high can be seen between the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and the mid-July low at 15,509 to 15,613. Source: ProRealTime
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