Jump to content

Is the NFP number broken?


Recommended Posts

Why does the US jobs market seem so resilient in the face of rising number layoffs across corporate USA? IGTV’s Angeline Ong takes a closer look at whether the NFP number needs updating.

 Angeline Ong | Presenter, Analyst and Content Editor, London | Publication date: Monday 06 March 2023 

NFP puzzle

There's something strange about that NFP number. Many market watchers say that the surprisingly strong number that we saw, the shocking number in the previous month in February, given the weakness seen in the US economy and the number of job losses we've seen to date from big blue chips and tech companies, is not being reflected in this number.

Jobs conundrum

So, is that number and the way it's calculated, broken? Well, let's take a look at the chart here from Refinitiv and also Fathom Consulting. At first, the NFP doesn't take into account the growing number of gig workers. And secondly, the majority of jobs lost so far have come from white-collar tech workers. More than 122,000 global tech sector workers have been laid off since the start of 2023, according to data from Layoffs.fyi. Now, let's take a look at another chart here. This is the unemployment, rather, than benefits claimants. The thing is that many of these tech workers will have sizable payoffs, which on average could last up to 2 to 3 months, which explains why the US market, at least according to data points like jobless claims, appear resilient. So, where is the salad dressing? Well, watch out for when the severance payments run out and it could be soon. If these people living off their payouts don't get a new job fast, then that non-farm number could soon sour as the white-collar job losses leak into the wider economy.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • NASDAQ Stock market Elliott Wave Analysis and trading strategies: NASDAQ 100 (NDX) QQQ ETF, SP500 (SPX), SPY,  Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Netflix (NFLX), Alphabet (GOOGL)  Elliott Wave Analysis of NDX Tech Stocks: NASDAQ Elliott Wave (i) of v) of 1 of (5) of 3).  The main wave count for stock and indices is still on track. Only very short-term trade should trade long. Swing trades should be looking to scale out mid to later this week. Our next serious long trade will be from Minor Wave 2 low. AMZN and TSLA have different counts, however on an intraday basis they will move with the general market, just with different counts. Video Chapters 00:00 NASDAQ 100 (NDX) SP 500 04:13 Apple (AAPL) 09:34 Amazon (AMZN) 12:14 NVIDIA (NVDA) 14:08 Meta Platforms (META) 15:39 Netflix (NFLX)  16:41 Alphabet (GOOGL) 17:32 Microsoft MSFT 18:31 Tesla (TSLA) 20:25 End Analyst Peter Mathers TradingLounge™ Australian Financial Services Licence - AFSL 317817 Source: tradinglounge.com   
    • I am already staking my eth on the platform and currently holding BGB to explore their PoolX event that has a similar high APR.
    • Risk averse ways of earning always seem like good opportunities to earn some good bucks in the Crypto Space.  Certain platforms have taken it upon themselves to bring up worthwhile ways of giving users latitude to earn.  Bitget in its usual manner have brought forth an event to let users earn just by staking ETH. The APR is really Juicy, It is about 20%.  The event is exclusively for African new sign-ups. It seems like one to participate in for the newbies. Participating is relatively simple, you just need to navigate to platform's earn product and choose the corresponding product to stake and earn passively without necessarily risking anything.
×
×
  • Create New...
us