Jump to content

AUDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4Hour Chart 20 July 23


Recommended Posts

AUDUSD Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4Hour Chart, 20 July 23,  
Australian Dollar /U.S.Dollar(AUDUSD)  4Hour Chart
AUDUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
Function:  Trend
Mode: impulsive
Structure: Subwave 5 of Blue wave 3
Position: Black Wave 3
Direction Next Higher Degrees: wave (5 of 3) of Motive
Details: Subwave Wave “4” completed at  0.67499 . Now red wave 5 in play, started with strong move . Subwave Wave “5 of 3”  is likely to end at fib level 3.618. Wave Cancel invalid level: 0.67010
 
On 20th July 2023, the 4-hour chart of the Australian Dollar / U.S. Dollar (AUDUSD) pair is subjected to Elliott Wave analysis, revealing an impulsive trend in the market. The function of the price movement is considered to be a trend, characterized by its impulsive mode.
The current structure is identified as Subwave 5 of Blue wave 3, with the AUDUSD pair's position designated as Black Wave 3. The projected direction for the next higher degrees is wave (5 of 3) of a larger Motive wave pattern.
The analysis provides further details indicating that Subwave Wave "4" has already completed its corrective phase, reaching the level of 0.67499. At present, the market is engaged in a strong move characterized as red wave 5. Traders and investors are advised to closely monitor this wave as it is expected to conclude at the Fibonacci level of 3.618.
It is essential to acknowledge that the provided wave count will lose its validity if the AUDUSD price falls below the level of 0.67010.
As of the specified date, 20th July 2023, traders in the AUDUSD market should be attentive to the ongoing impulsive trend and the potential development of red wave 5. Impulsive waves often present favorable trading opportunities due to their strong momentum and directional bias. However, it is crucial to practice proper risk management and validate the Elliott Wave analysis with other technical indicators and fundamental factors before making trading decisions.
While Elliott Wave analysis provides valuable insights into market patterns and potential price movements, it is not a foolproof method. Financial markets are influenced by a multitude of factors, and combining various forms of analysis can enhance the accuracy and reliability of trading strategies. As such, traders should adopt a comprehensive approach to trading, considering both technical and fundamental factors to gain a well-rounded understanding of the AUDUSD market's current and future movements.
6)audusd.thumb.png.dc52bddad96917c041421f07a5c6fb73.png
  • Like 1
Link to comment

AUD embraces a turbulent July, what comes next?

 

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg
 
Hebe Chen | Market Analyst, Melbourne | Publication date: Wednesday 19 July 2023 

The Australian dollar has experienced a "fire and ice" July, with the exchange rate of AUD/USD soaring nearly 4% in the first two weeks of the month and then turning decisively south since the 14th of July. Will the downtrend continue to the end of the month, or is there a chance to see a rebound soon?


What happened to AUD/USD


July has been a data-and-event-heavy month for the AUD/USD pair.


The first event that hit the Australian dollar was the RBA's decision to pause rates in the July interest rate meeting. Following the announcement, the AUD dipped for two consecutive days. However, shortly thereafter, cooler-than-expected inflation data in the United States challenged the strength of the US dollar and shifted support towards the Australian dollar, pushing the exchange rate towards 0.69.


Towards the mid-point of the month, on July 14th, a significant turnaround occurred for the AUD/USD pair. The Australian government announced a new RBA governor, replacing the current RBA boss Philip Lowe, who had led the RBA to raise interest rates 11 times since May 2022. As a result, the market forecasted that this may signify a new chapter for the RBA's policy cycle, with an increased likelihood of fewer rate hikes.


Furthermore, the latest economic data from China placed additional pressure on the AUD/USD pair. As a commodity currency, any signs of a slowdown in China's economic recovery will inevitably impact the demand for Australia's exports, leading to a weaker Australian dollar. As of Wednesday (July 19th), the Australian dollar has been declining for five consecutive days.


AUD/USD: what are the key challenges in store?


In fact, the volatility of the Australian dollar is likely far from over.


On Thursday, July 20th, Australia will release its unemployment rate for June. Currently, market expectations are that Australia's unemployment rate will remain at a historic low of 3.6%, indicating a sustained tight labor market. The incoming new governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia has previously stated that to maintain a sustainable and reasonable inflation rate, the unemployment rate ideally should be around 4.5%. In other words, the current unemployment rate poses a significant uncertainty to the still elevated inflation.


Additionally, even more impactful data will come in the last week of July. On July 26th, Australia will release the inflation rate for the second quarter, with market expectations at 6.3%. Although it shows a significant decrease compared to the previous quarter's 7%, Australia is likely to become one of the developed countries with the highest inflation rates. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia persisting with a rate hike in August under the pressure of this trend, which could potentially lead to a strong recovery of the Australian dollar in late July.


AUD/USD Technical Analysis


Turning to the daily chart for AUD/USD, after failing to break through the key 0.69 level on July 14th, a clear double-top pattern has formed completely. The neckline of this double-top pattern aligns perfectly with the uptrend line since early June.


Currently, the AUD/USD pair is being supported at the level of 0.68, which used to be a significant resistance level from April to June this year. If the price continues to drop below this level, it may likely retest the 200-day moving average as a key support and potentially reverse the medium-term trend if moving further down.


However, from a longer term perspective, only a breach below this month-long trendline can we confirm a bear reversal for the pair.

original-size.webp
Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Hi I have Rolls Royce shares in my IG account and realising they do not pay a dividend I saw they issue 'C' Class Shares which need to be redeemed: Payments to shareholders | Rolls-Royce Has anyone any experience of redeeming these or getting information/option requests from IG??? I have been trying for weeks to get information from the Corporate Actions Team, and am still waiting?? 
    • Wheat Elliott Wave Analysis  Function - Trend Mode - Trend Structure - Impulse for wave (A) Position - Wave 5 of  (A) Direction - Wave (B) Details -  Wave 5 of (A) could be completed with an ending diagonal. Pullback for (B) should begin afterwards. Since March 2024, wheat prices have been recovering and extending higher. However, a slowdown and a potential downward correction may occur in the coming days. Despite this, the overall recovery trend is expected to continue afterward. The initial recovery from the low of 523 in March is projected to advance towards the 840-940 range in the medium term. Nevertheless, the long-term bearish trend could resume in the last quarter of the year.   Examining the daily chart, we observe a bearish impulse wave that began at 1364 in March 2022, culminating in an impulse wave that reached 523 in March 2024, thus concluding a two-year sell-off. The subsequent recovery from 523 is nearing the completion of an impulse wave. This suggests that we should anticipate at least an (A)-(B)-(C) bullish correction continuing towards higher price levels, likely in the 842-942 range, which corresponds to the 38.2-50% Fibonacci retracement zone. It is also possible for prices to move even higher. This bullish corrective cycle is projected to extend until the last quarter of the year. For now, the focus should be on the completion of wave (A) and the potential for a retracement in wave (B).     The H4 chart reveals that wave (A) is nearing its completion, forming an ending diagonal for wave 5. A bearish retracement for wave (B) is anticipated to start soon. The prudent strategy at this juncture is to wait for wave (B) to complete before considering long positions in wave (C), provided wave (B) does not breach the 523 low.   In summary, while wheat prices have been on an upward trajectory since March 2024, we may soon experience a short-term correction. However, the broader recovery trend is expected to persist, with prices potentially reaching the 840-940 range. Traders should monitor the progression of wave (A) and prepare for the likely retracement in wave (B). By closely observing the key level of 523, traders can ensure that the bearish wave (B) does not invalidate the recovery trend. If wave (B) remains above this level, the subsequent wave (C) could present a favorable opportunity for long positions, aligning with the projected medium-term bullish correction before the resumption of the long-term bearish trend later in the year. Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • BlockChainPeople is diving deep into the minds of blockchain users, trying to understand what makes them tick. Interesting stuff. Messari, these crypto detectives uncover hidden data and trends in the crypto market.  Coin Center, policy peeps focused on shaping the future of blockchain regulations.  The Graph, Imagine Google Search, but for everything blockchain – that's The Graph! So, is BlockChainPeople the only way to learn about blockchain? Nope! There's a treasure trove of resources out there waiting to be explored. And it also just got listed on Bitget, spectacular right? What are your thoughts? Are you curious about the psychology of blockchain users, or are you more interested in general blockchain education? Let's hear your thoughts in the comments.
×
×
  • Create New...
us