Bitcoin

[Guest 121]

You're right , and I've just been taking one too many risks with commentary to make the competition more fun. It would have helped though had I done a bit more homework on the stats before I started. !!!!

 

I read about somebody making a comparison with silver - very interesting what you posted. Maybe this month is not just a simple repeat of previous months, and with a lot more at stake.

[Caseynotes]

The addition of the futures market has changed the bitcoin market which can no longer claim to be long only, though may well remain in a long term up trend there is now far greater risk that sellers will step in to take out long stops. The 1 hour chart looks a far more like a 'normal' market and this will make it easier to trade as the broker now has a more balanced book though there must still be many longs who got in early and are hanging on but they must be starting to think in terms of securing some degree of actual profits over book profits. There was a rumour going round on twitter yesterday that a large quantity of bitcoin was moved onto one of the exchanges (being positioned ready to sell). Who knows.

 

Difficult to study up for as there has been nothing quite like it for generations so don't beat yourself up over it. Best bet is to study up on the technicals and let the fundamentals take care of themselves.

 

 

[Guest 121]

I don't know if I read enough, but I believe at least now you can trade faster with Bitcoin through the futures exchange if you want to get rid of your Bitcoins because previously I read somebody complaining it was taking them 12hrs. Imagine the crush if everybody had suddenly wanted to get out at the same time. It would have blacked out the planet !!!!

[Caseynotes]

The 15776 level is under attack by the bears again today and the momentum is with them. At some stage those buy orders in this zone are going to dry up one would presume, each lift off by the bulls has failed to find follow through.

 

15 min chart.

100 & 200 sma.

 

[Guest 121]

Great reporting &.................. .

[Caseynotes]

Ah right, we are there. From 17261 at 7 am this morning now trying to tag the prior low at 15490.

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

So this was a natural target area for the bears and they will be watching carefully, ready to bail if price is swamped again by buy orders as has been the case previous.

 

If the bulls can't rally to protect this level it will they who will have to bail and price will continue to drop. Still could go either way.

 

[Caseynotes]

So a retest is in play at a very important level, using Trading view charts for 15 min and daily charts for longer historical data than IG (MT4) provides. Note the high bear volume during moves on both charts. If the retest holds and the level has turned from support into resistance then the next major level down is as  suggests (in another thread) around 13000. The weekly chart is approaching a full reversal bar.

 

Tomorrow is crucial for the bulls to prove this is just a pullback, otherwise look to 13000. 

 

 

 

[Guest 121]

I replied to @TrendFollower that his  thoughts were interesting. I also wrote that I've decided not to speculate on this as it's not really what I think I'm good at though I know where his figure of $12,940 is coming from.

[Caseynotes]

Overnight plunge after retest confirmed support turned resistance. Now struggling to hang on to 13000.

 

[Guest 121]

I put this in   section but include it here as well

 

Market hit retracement level. So I guess we now look for three bar start of higher highs and higher lows. Then one bar which breaks the low again and has a lower high and we've got a fractal start skywards (or not)? On which day will the next weekly bar start? This stuff isn't really my area of expertise, although I did once have the late Professor Mandelbrot take a peek at my work !!!!

[Caseynotes]

,   WOW, that's impressive. Did he add any chaos to your trading?

[Guest 121]

No? Keep your eye on the ball ????

[Caseynotes]

Tell us more though, am a great admirer of Mandelbrot and his chaos and fractal theories though must admit his books are hard going.

[Guest 121]

The work he had a peek at is not relevant to me today but that's one of the reasons why I like to try and be original, and create my own stuff ! I'm no Phd !!!!

[Caseynotes]

Is that an admission that he did introduce a little chaos to your trading? :smileyhappy:

[Guest 121]

When you start to theorize about writing an algorithm and creating stats how can you miss fractals?

[Caseynotes]

Big volume on this down move a sign of bear strength and has completely reversed the rise of two weeks ago, price back down and challenging the recent low again. Redrawing the Fib from further back on a 4 hour chart coincides with chart support zones. If the 13000 zone breaks the next level down is 10980.

 

4 hour chart.

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

11400 and falling.

[Caseynotes]

Well that didn't take long did it. From 13000  to 10980 in 28 minutes flat.

 

[Caseynotes]

Circuit breakers triggered at CME Bitcoin Futures, trading halted.

 

 http://ow.ly.via.insighter.io/yohay-elam/5a3d1752fecdf2be6aa0ceae?src=t.co#!/

 

[Caseynotes]

Oh no, even David Jones (ex IG) has been caught out...

 

[Caseynotes]

Buyers have stepped in at the 10980 support level and have lifted price back up though 13000 and now around 13200.

 

[Caseynotes]

This is a crucial level for bitcoin, the level has acted as both support and resistance on a number of occasions in the recent past as well as being the 62% fib level from the big down trend move. A break above or below could lead to a significant move.

 

 

 

[Guest iyoung]

"[With IG] ...you don’t need a wallet or additional offline storage device, and account verification               and KYC checks are automatic. You are not buying or selling the underlying Cryptocurrency, but instead speculating on the price movement."

 

Problem is, you can't long... better off buying btc and storing in a hardware wallet.

[Caseynotes]

Tried to punch through the resistance zone overnight (see my last post in this thread from yesterday) on a single 1 hour bar but has been beaten back to find support at 15399.

 

1 hour chart.

 

[Caseynotes]

Fallen away from resistance today to get a bounce off the upward trendline, upside target for bulls is the 62% Fib level.

MA's flat.

 

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Yes indeed, but look at that exquisite TA chart action (as this thread has shown) over the last month. Volatile as it is but it is still conforming to predefined basic trendlines, support and resistance and Fibonacci levels time and time again. Practically impossible to actually trade unless via an exchange and even then fraught with difficulties it is chart action heaven that has not been seen for generations and won't be seen again for generations on this scale.   

[Caseynotes]

Bitcoin likely to gap down on IG market open 9 pm, BitMEX BTCUSD Futures currently around 13200. GDAX spot currently has Bitcoin at 13210.

 

BTCUSD has been keeping faith with Fib retracement levels from the big move up from 12/11/17 to 17/12/17, particularly 23.6%, 50% and 61.8%.

50% is at 12620. See 4 hour chart at holiday close bottom of page.

 

 

 

[Caseynotes]

Bitcoin gapped on market open and normally the gap would get filled but bitcoin has never behaved normally and so gaps routinely don't get filled for days or weeks after if ever (unfinished auction). Possible retest of the 50% Fib more likely before a retest of the 38.2% level?

 

1 hour chart.