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Market update: Australian dollar could rebound a bit; AUD/USD, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD price set-ups


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The AUD/USD attempts to form a temporary base, although the consolidation/correction in EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD may not be over yet.

 

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg

 

 Manish Jaradi | IG Analyst, Singapore | Publication date: Monday 11 September 2023 07:48

AUD/USD: Growing odds of a minor rebound

After an initial attempt to break higher in late August, AUD/USD is back around its August lows. However, a new/minor high created at the end of last month raises the prospect of AUD/USD retesting the 200-period moving average on the 240-minute charts (now at about 0.6500).

Zooming out, in recent weeks, AUD/USD has been attempting to hold above quite strong support on a downtrend line from the end of 2022. Any break above the August 30 low of 0.6525 could indicate the start of a material consolidation. That’s because, on higher timeframe charts, including the weekly charts, AUD/USD is looking oversold and is showing tentative signs of fatigue.

AUD/USD 240-minute chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

EUR/AUD: Consolidation within a broadly bullish phase

The failure of EUR/AUD to resume its uptrend last week could be a sign that the consolidation that started last month isn’t over. EUR/AUD retreated from near a tough hurdle at the end-August highs of around 1.6880, coinciding with the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the 240-minute charts.

The cross is now testing a vital floor area: the 200-period moving average, slightly above a horizontal trendline since August (at about 1.6635). Any break below 1.6635 could raise the odds of further losses, initially toward 1.6450.

EUR/AUD 240-minute chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

GBP/AUD: Testing a crucial cushion

GBP/AUD is testing a crucial converged cushion: the 200-period moving average, coinciding with a horizontal trendline from the end of August (at about 1.9450), not too far from an uptrend line from June. A hold above the support area is key for the uptrend to resume.

To be sure, a break below isn’t imminent, but any break below would point to an extended consolidation with a slightly weak bias. On the upside, GBP/AUD would need to break above last week’s high of 1.9750 for the bullish bias to resume.

GBP/AUD 240-minute chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

This information has been prepared by DailyFX, the partner site of IG offering leading forex news and analysis. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

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