Jump to content

Market update: euro sets stage for longest weekly losing streak since 1997


Recommended Posts

The euro is on course for longest losing streak since 1997; retail traders continue becoming increasingly bullish, while EUR/USD closes at lowest since March.

 

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg

 

Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Friday 15 September 2023 05:31

EUR/USD sentiment outlook: bearish

After a -0.8 percent drop against the US dollar over the past 24 hours, the euro is now on course for a ninth consecutive weekly loss. That would be the longest losing streak since 1997! Meanwhile, retail traders continue becoming more bullish on the single currency. This can be seen by looking at IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), which often functions as a contrarian indicator. With that in mind, is further pain in store for EUR/USD?

The IGCS gauge shows that about 71% of retail traders are net-long EUR/USD. Since most of them are biased to the upside, this hints that prices may continue falling down the road. Meanwhile, upside exposure has increased by 13.79% and 1.95% compared to yesterday and last week, respectively. With that in mind, this is offering a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias.

IG Client Sentiment chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

EUR/USD technical analysis

Taking a look at the daily chart below, EUR/USD has extended losses under the 200-day moving average. Now, prices have fallen to the May low of 1.0635, as well as closing at the lowest point since March. With that in mind, EUR/USD is thus facing a potential key turning point.

Still, even a bounce off support would not necessarily overturn the downside bias since July. The falling trendline from then is guiding prices lower. Clearing it would offer an increasingly bullish view. Otherwise, clearing lower exposes the March low of 1.0516.

Euro daily chart

 

original-size.webpSource: DailyFX

 

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

Link to comment

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • ASX: AMCOR PLC – AMC Elliott Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge (1D Chart) Greetings, Our Elliott Wave analysis today updates the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) with AMCOR PLC – AMC. We see AMC pushing higher with wave (iii)-orange of wave ((iii))-navy. ASX: AMCOR PLC – AMC 1D Chart (Semilog Scale) Analysis Function: Major trend (Intermediate degree) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave (iii)-orange of Wave ((iii))-navy of Wave 3-grey of Wave (3)-orange Details: Since the low at 15.53 wave ((iii))-navy is unfolding to push higher, aiming for targets as high as 20.00, it has itself subdivided into waves (i),(ii)-orange and they have ended, now it is time for wave (iii)-orange to unfold to push higher. Invalidation point: 15.95 ASX: AMCOR PLC – AMC 4-Hour Chart Analysis Function: Major trend (Minute degree, navy) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave iii-grey of Wave (iii)-orange of Wave ((iii))-navy Details: Wave (ii)-orange ended at the low of 15.95 as a Zigzag labeled a,b,c-grey. And wave (iii)-orange is probably unfolding to push higher, targeting the highs of 18.00 - 20.00. It is subdividing into wave i-grey and wave ii-grey, and is probably over, and now wave iii-grey is unfolding to push higher. Invalidation point: 16.10 Conclusion: Our analysis, forecast of contextual trends, and short-term outlook for ASX: AMCOR PLC – AMC aim to provide readers with insights into the current market trends and how to capitalize on them effectively. We offer specific price points that act as validation or invalidation signals for our wave count, enhancing the confidence in our perspective. By combining these factors, we strive to offer readers the most objective and professional perspective on market trends. Technical Analyst: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master’s Designation). Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here! Tag: #ElliottWave #ASX #AUSStocks #ASXStocks #AMC #TradingLounge #ASX200  
    • Elliott Wave Analysis TradingLounge Daily Chart, ChainLink/ U.S. dollar(LINKUSD) LINKUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter Trend Mode: Corrective Structure: Triple Corrective Position: Wave Z Direction Next higher Degrees: Wave ((II)) of Impulse Wave Cancel invalid Level: Details:: Wave (II) is likely to retest at 6.882 ChainLink/ U.S. dollar(LINKUSD)Trading Strategy: The correction in wave ((2)) seems to be not over yet, so we focus on the decline in wave ((2)). It is likely to go down to test the 6.882 level, but all this is a short-term pullback, look for a resumption of the trend. ChainLink/ U.S. dollar(LINKUSD)Technical Indicators: The price is below the MA200 indicating a downtrend, The Wave Oscillator is a Bullish Momentum. ChainLink/ U.S. dollar(LINKUSD) LINKUSD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter Trend Mode: Corrective Structure: Triple Corrective Position: Wave Z Direction Next higher Degrees: Wave ((II)) of Impulse Wave Cancel invalid Level:  Details:: Wave (II) is likely to retest at 6.882 ChainLink/ U.S. dollar(LINKUSD)Trading Strategy: The correction in wave ((2)) seems to be not over yet, so we focus on the decline in wave ((2)). It is likely to go down to test the 6.882 level, but all this is a short-term pullback, look for a resumption of the trend. ChainLink/ U.S. dollar(LINKUSD)Technical Indicators: The price is below the MA200 indicating a downtrend, The Wave Oscillator is a Bullish Momentum. Technical Analyst : Kittiampon Somboonsod Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • I think it's quite early to justify that SOL would be bullish this month but if it should then more value will be added to my pf at the Trade Smarter platform. A win for me but let's watch and see.
×
×
  • Create New...
us