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Market update: crude oil price may test $100, while natural gas is not yet out of the woods


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Crude oil’s break above key resistance points to further rise; immediate downside risks in natural gas haven’t been eliminated; we guide you on the key levels to watch.

 

original-size.webpSource: Bloomberg

 

 Manish Jaradi | IG Analyst, Singapore | Publication date: Monday 18 September 2023 06:52

Crude Oil: A trend reversal?

Crude oil’s ascent appears to be getting stronger, as reflected in the steepening angle of the uptrend since June. This follows a break above quite a few times tested resistance on a horizontal trendline since the end of 2022. has triggered a breakout from a multi-month sideway zone. The break has opened the way toward the October high of 93.00.

Crude oil weekly chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

Crude oil technical analysis

The bullish break has triggered a double bottom (the March and May lows), pointing to a potential rise toward 103. The potential for a significant low/capitulation was first pointed out in May. Crude oil’s subsequent break above-converged support on the 89-day moving average and the 200-day moving average. 

Crude oil 240-minute chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

Oil may resume broader uptrend

Last month’s crack above a horizontal trendline from January (that came at about 83.00) sealed the breakout from a multi-week range. Oil looks set to test another horizontal trendline from 2022 (at about 93.00), which would be a key confirmation of the resumption of the broader uptrend. Such a break would also coincide with the upper edge of the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly charts. 

Crude oil daily chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

Natural gas: holding above support

The intraday trading ranges in natural gas have narrowed further in recent weeks. Despite the narrowing volatility, natural gas has held above the crucial horizontal trendline since July (at about 2.40-2.50). At the same time, natural gas hasn’t been able to build any meaningful upward momentum since after staging a lower top at the end of August.

Natural gas daily chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

Is the natural gas rebound over?

The failure to reach the early-August high raises the risk that the five-month-long rebound is over, provided the 2.40-2.50 support gives way. Any break below 2.40-2.50 could pave the way toward the Q1-2023 lows of around 1.95-2.00. 

Natural gas weekly chart

 

original-size.webpSource: TradingView

 

 

 

This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.

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